In a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals, the top-seeded Nuggets (-5.5) aim to advance to their first-ever NBA Finals, but a tough test against the 17-time NBA champion and seventh-seeded Lakers stands in their way. With Denver having home-court advantage in this best-of-seven, the Nuggets sit as short -155 series favorites (implied probability: 60.78 percent) with the Lakers priced at +125 on the series line (implied probability: 44.44 percent).
As a -225 moneyline favorite in Game 1 on Tuesday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), Denver's projected to take an early series lead and extend its postseason home record to 7-0. Along with holding serve at home this postseason, Denver's thrived inside Ball Arena all year, posting a dominant 40-7 record straight up. Even when factoring in the point spread, the Nuggets have posted a profitable 30-16-1 ATS record at home (65.2-percent cover rate).
We'll see if the Nuggets can keep their unblemished home record intact against a Lakers bunch leading the league in defensive rating this postseason (106.5) and fresh off an impressive 4-2 series win over the Warriors. Since retooling its roster at the trade deadline, Los Angeles looks nothing like a No. 7 seed and is a real threat to claim its 18th NBA Championship in franchise history. Despite starting the season 2-10 under first-year head coach Darvin Ham, the Lakers enter Tuesday night with a 26-13 record since the trade deadline.
Can the Nuggets improve to 7-0 at home this postseason, or will the Lakers win their third-straight series opening road game? Below, we'll break down Tuesday night's Nuggets-Lakers matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 1 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Nuggets -5.5 (-110); Lakers +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 222.5 (-110); UNDER 222.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -225; Lakers +180
Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic's done everything in his power to lead the Nuggets to their first-ever NBA Finals, nearly averaging a triple-double this postseason by pouring in 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game. In fact, the Joker did average a triple-double in Denver's six-game series win over Phoenix (34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 10.3 assists) and hopes to maintain his elite play against a well-rounded Lakers defense.
Unlike in the Western Conference semis when Jokic was a matchup nightmare for the Suns' frontcourt, Lakers big man Anthony Davis can limit Jokic's effectiveness just enough for Los Angeles to be a live underdog in this best-of-seven. If Davis can hang with Jokic on the perimeter and bang with him on the block, Denver's going to need consistent production from fellow studs Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon to get past the Lake Show.
Murray, who's playing in his first postseason since Denver's bubble run in '20, has been a reliable second option, recording 25.9 points, 6.5 assists, and 5.2 rebounds over the Nuggets' 11 playoff contests. Porter Jr., who missed most of the '21-22 season with a back injury, is also scoring in double-figures this postseason (14.5 ppg) while making 40 percent of his three-pointers to help space the floor. Gordon's shooting 47.3 percent from the floor, grabbing 6.2 rebounds per game while doing his part to slow down opposing wings on the defensive end.
While Los Angeles hasn't been nearly as efficient on the offensive end this postseason, the Lakers sport a respectable 56.9 true shooting percentage (seventh among all 16 playoff teams) with four-time NBA champion LeBron James leading the way, scoring 23.4 points per game on 49.1 percent shooting. Although consistent production has been hit-or-miss, Davis is second on the team in scoring this postseason (21.2 ppg) with fellow starters D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves chipping in with 15.7 and 15.1 points per game, respectively.
Unlike the relatively undersized Warriors, the Nuggets have enough length in the frontcourt and on the wings to potentially make life tough for the Lakers. On paper, the Nuggets appear to be the toughest matchup the Lakers have faced this postseason, and the Nuggets' stability on both ends of the court certainly warrants them as the betting favorites to reach the NBA Finals.
While the Lakers have fared well on the road in Game 1s during this playoff run, we think the Nuggets' defense does enough to limit James and Davis' effectiveness while Jokic's ability to bring Davis out to the perimeter gives the Nuggets' ample space to run their offensive sets at an efficient enough clip to notch a home win and cover.
Prediction: Nuggets 114, Lakers 107. The Nuggets (-5.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (222.5)
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Best player prop bet for Nuggets vs. Lakers: Aaron Gordon OVER 6.5 rebounds (+120)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
With Davis potentially limiting Jokic's rebounding opportunities by neutralizing him on box-outs, Gordon could be tasked with corralling a fair number of rebounds on both ends of the floor. He's averaged just 6.2 rebounds this postseason, so his prop is correctly priced, but given the Lakers frontcourt profiles more like Denver's first-round opponent, the Timberwolves, than the Suns, we think Gordon reverts to his opening-round numbers.
Gordon went OVER 6.5 rebounds in only one of the Nuggets' six games against the Suns but went OVER 6.5 rebounds in three of their five games against the Timberwolves, averaging seven rebounds that series. We think a more competent Lakers' frontcourt does a better job of containing Jokic as a rebounder than the Suns did, leading to Gordon finding his hands on seven-plus rebounds in Game 1.
