The Timberwolves, Suns and Lakers each tried (and failed) to slow down Nikola Jokic.
Now, it's the Heat's turn to face the two-time MVP.
Jokic enters the 2023 NBA Finals averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and a league-leading 10.3 assists per game in these playoffs. He's on pace to become only the fourth player in NBA history to average a triple-double in a single postseason. He's also been incredibly efficient, shooting 53.8 percent from the field and 47.4 percent from 3-point range.
The Heat have had one of the best defenses in the NBA all season long and feature two of the league's best defenders, but they still might find themselves without a clear answer to Jokic.
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Why defending Nikola Jokic is the Heat's greatest challenge yet
Bam Adebayo defended Jokic more than anyone else in the Heat's two matchups with the Nuggets during the regular season. Adebayo is a terrific defender, but he's a couple of inches shorter and around 30 pounds lighter than Jokic.
Adebayo will likely have a hard time guarding Jokic one-on-one because of that size disadvantage. Jokic is as good as it gets when it comes to scoring in the post and he has looked comfortable backing Adebayo down when they have faced each other in the past.
Jokic has excellent footwork in those situations:
He also has the length to shoot over Adebayo:
According to the NBA's matchup data, Jokic has scored a total of 37 points on 17-for-27 shooting with Adebayo as his primary defender over the last two seasons. Those numbers bode well for the Nuggets in the Finals.
The problem the Heat face is that they don't have much size elsewhere on their roster.
Adebayo is the fifth tallest player on the team, trailing the 6-foot-10 Nikola Jovic, the 6-foot-10 Orlando Robinson, the 6-foot-11 Cody Zeller and the 6-foot-11 Omer Yurtseven. Of the four, only Zeller is likely to get minutes in the Finals — Robinson is on a two-way contract while neither Jovic nor Yurtseven has been in the Heat's rotation in these playoffs.
If it's not Adebayo or Zeller, the Heat's best option against Jokic is probably Kevin Love, who didn't play in Games 6 and 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
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The Heat could take a page out of the Lakers' book by having someone other than Adebayo defend Jokic to allow him to be more of a roamer, but that doesn't play to his strengths in the same way that it did for Anthony Davis, who is one of the most disruptive help defenders in the NBA.
Davis averaged a league-high 3.1 blocks per game in these playoffs, and opponents shot 16.3 percentage points worse than expected when he was defending the rim. For comparison, Adebayo is averaging 0.6 blocks per game and opponents are shooting 6.1 percentage points worse than expected when he's defending the rim. He's still a deterrent, but he's not as much of a deterrent as Davis is.
Adebayo's greatest asset on defense is his speed and versatility. That could help the Heat contain Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., but switching Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson or Caleb Martin onto Jokic is almost certainly not going to end well for the Heat.
Whenever Jokic is presented with a mismatch, he's quick to go to work. He's lights-out from midrange, floater range and at the rim, and there's little-to-no wasted movement.
(Even with all that in mind, I am curious to see if Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra experiments with Jimmy Butler on Jokic at all, like the 76ers did with P.J. Tucker and the Lakers did with Rui Hachimura. He's at an even greater size disadvantage than Adebayo, but he's one of the stronger players at his position. Plus, perimeter players can usually get away with being more physical against bigger opponents.)
The Heat could double or trap Jokic when he has the ball in his hands. That, of course, creates different problems because Jokic is arguably the best passer in the NBA today. There aren't many players who read the floor as well as he does and can make the types of passes he does on a nightly basis.
It's telling that the Nuggets are 7-2 in the 2023 NBA Playoffs when Jokic records 10 or more assists and 4-3 when he scores 30 or more points. He's more than capable of putting up big scoring numbers, but Denver is at its best when everyone is involved.
Playing zone against Jokic is difficult for those same reasons. Not only will he pick teams apart as a scorer in the middle of a zone, but teams have to move on a string to keep up with his quick decisions and pinpoint passing.
Ultimately, the Heat might have to choose between limiting Jokic's scoring or his playmaking. The Nuggets could win the series either way, so it's a matter of picking the lesser of two evils.
