Some of the most dominant players you will watch in this year’s NCAA Tournament might not even get drafted in the NBA. Gonzaga forward Drew Timme was a favorite for National Player of the Year coming into this season. He’s averaged 17 points, six rebounds and three assists per game. University of Illinois center Kofi Cockburn has been even better, putting up 21 points and 11 rebounds per game. They are ranked Nos. 67 and 66, respectively in Sam Vecenie’s latest big board at The Athletic.
Every draft, we see players who are capable of dominating in the NCAA Tournament but are forced to change into role players once they reach the NBA. How can we tell whether a prospect will continue to be a lead guy in the NBA, or instead will be forced to make that transition into specialist? I asked a bunch of draft experts for insight.
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One of the common threads in what the experts told me is that a prospect’s college scoring average only reveals a tiny piece of what they will be able to do in the NBA. There is a lot more nuance within that number. Sports Info Solutions analyst Evan Zaucha likes to focus on the type of shots that prospects are taking, as well as how dependent they are on screens to get open.
“If the majority are off dribble, self-created looks, I’m more likely to buy them as primary or secondary drivers of offense,” Zaucha told The Sporting News. “If you’re an off-movement, catch and shoot or cut-heavy player, then you’re most likely going to end up a role player in the league unless your tools show promise to step up to more self-creation.”
Ja Morant averaged 24.5 points per game as a sophomore, and his freakish ability to get to the basket was already on full display at Murray State. Those self-created looks are the type of green flag that show a prospect’s scoring can translate to the NBA.
JJ Redick, on the other hand, is a good example of a red-flagged big scorer. Redick averaged 27 points per game for Duke as a senior, but many of his looks came from running off screens or catch-and-shoot jumpers.
Sports Info Solutions video scout Larry Golden likes to look more closely at how players create separation on offense, and what they do with that separation.
"I think if you have the ability to consistently apply pressure to the rim and get teams into rotation, that’s step one,” Golden told The Sporting News. “Step two is the decisions you make once the defense has been penetrated. Can you consistently finish at the rim with nice craft and find teammates for open looks to create closeout opportunities? There are players that can consistently break a defense down, but they falter when it comes to reading the game."
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Trae Young is a good example of a player who meets Golden’s criteria. Young was heavily doubted coming out of Oklahoma, but he was already one of the best passers in college basketball, leading the nation with 8.7 assists per game. He was able to get to the rim, and he already knew what to do as a college freshman after he created that advantage. That was a good signal that those skills would carry over to the NBA.
Athleticism is another huge piece of the puzzle. The caliber of NBA defenses is ramped up, and there needs to be a much higher baseline of athleticism and ball handling to beat more physically-skilled defenders.
"You can't be a primary creator in the league without elite tools and handles, pretty much,” NBA podcaster Kevin Ferrigan told The Sporting News. “One thing that [draft analyst] Brian Schroeder put me on was looking at the number of dunks in the halfcourt as an athleticism indicator."
Using the first round of the 2019 draft as an example, that dunks number does give a decent window into the athleticism of those prospects. There is some correlation with success as a primary scorer in the NBA.
| Player | Dunks in the season prior to entering the draft |
|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 72 |
| Ja Morant | 28 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 12 |
| Cam Reddish | 11 |
| Romeo Langford | 10 |
| Ty Jerome | 0 |
Doug McDermott is another good example of a player who lacked the athleticism to continue as a primary scorer in the NBA. McDermott averaged 26.7 points per game during his senior year at Creighton. Many of his athletic indicators were low, though. He had only eight dunks that season.
Steal percentage is another decent proxy for athleticism. “You have to have at least a 2 percent steal rate for me to take your athleticism seriously as a primary [creator], and that scales up as you become an upperclassman,” Ferrigan said.
McDermott’s steal percentage was a paltry 0.4 percent, the worst in his draft class. He’s had to change his role dramatically in the NBA because of that lack of functional athleticism, turning into more of an off-ball role player.
Markus Howard was another big-time college scorer who didn’t have an NBA role because of lack of size and athleticism. Howard averaged 27.8 points per game as a senior with Marquette in 2020. His 5-11 frame has limited his pro career, and his 1.8 percent steal rate fell below Ferrigan’s 2 percent threshold. He’s had a few sips of coffee in the NBA, but his dominant college game hasn’t translated.
Draft and NBA analyst Adam Spinella doesn’t look at specific statistics before slotting a college star in as an NBA role player, but he is searching for similar things as the other experts while he watches film.
“Most of what matters is athletic: speed, quickness, burst relative to your size is important — size tends to have a lot to do with who will guard you,” Spinella told The Sporting News. “It's really about reliably getting to your spots against NBA-caliber athleticism.”
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Denzel Valentine illustrates Spinella’s points. He was a monster college player at Michigan State and the only player in DraftExpress’ historical database to average more than 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists per game. But his obvious lack of athleticism was evident. There were serious doubts about whether Valentine could put pressure on the rim.
Valentine has been a draft bust, largely because of those weaknesses. He’s been one of the worst players in the league at getting layups off in the NBA. As Spinella warned, he hasn’t been able to get to his spots. The stuff that made him dominant in college hasn’t translated.
The takeaways here are that rather than looking at how many points a guy scores, try to focus on how he scores. How much help does he need to get his shot off? How are his handle and vision once he creates separation? And does he meet the higher bar of athleticism needed to get shots off at the NBA level? These are the questions that you should ask yourself as you watch the NCAA Tournament with an eye toward how these players will perform in the pros.
