NBA Watch League Pass

NBA Western Conference tiers: Suns in class of their own but Grizzlies, Warriors among looming threats

Gilbert McGregor

•
NBA Western Conference tiers: Suns in class of their own but Grizzlies, Warriors among looming threats image

Ahead of the 2021-22 NBA season, I chatted with TSN's Kyle Irving and Scott Rafferty in an attempt to separate contenders from pretenders in the Western Conference by organizing teams into tiers.

Oh, how times have changed.

It's impossible to predict how an NBA season will go, but looking back, it's clear that some things are harder to predict than others. We had no idea whether or not the Lakers' experiment would work and completely underestimated the leap that Ja Morant and the Grizzlies could make.

We did, however, carve a specific lane for the teams that could thrive in the absence of injured stars, some of whom are just as scary as they were before the season nearly six months later.

With the playoffs looming, here's an updated look from one participant of the chat, tiering the 11 teams in contention to qualify for the playoffs in the Western Conference.

NBA LEAGUE PASS: Sign up to unlock live out-of-market games (7-day free trial)

Getty Images

Tier 1: Suns

With its season-long dominance, Phoenix has earned the right to be placed in a tier of its own. The Suns will finish with the West's No. 1 seed and it really won't be close as no other team can reach the 60-win plateau.

Phoenix won its 60th game with over three weeks remaining in the regular season.

It's much more than just the sheer number of victories, too. At this point, it's become nearly impossible to envision any team defeating the Suns four times in a seven-game series. Can it happen? Well, yes, anything can happen. But it will be a fight.

No team is without flaws, but the Suns make up for any minor shortcomings with a hunger that stems from falling two wins shy of the title in 2021. 

With an All-Star backcourt of Chris Paul and Devin Booker, a 3-and-D ace in Mikal Bridges and Deandre Ayton anchoring the interior, the Suns' core is as strong as the team is deep, with Jae Crowder, Torrey Craig, Cam Johnson, JaVale McGee, Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet each executing their roles to perfection.

See why it's so hard to envision them losing to the same team four out of seven times?

Tier 2: Grizzlies, Warriors

If the Suns were to be eliminated in a series, these are the two Western Conference teams most likely to do it.

The Grizzlies and Warriors are pretty similar but at the same time vastly different.

Depth is the greatest strength of both Memphis and Golden State as each team can mix and match its rotation to tailor to specific matchups, a factor that's paramount to playoff success. Both teams also rally behind star point guards, with 22-year-old Ja Morant leading the charge for the Grizzlies and 34-year-old Stephen Curry pacing the Warriors.

The 12-year difference in the point guards' ages is exactly what makes these teams vastly different, while a harrowing similarity is that both Morant (knee) and Curry (foot) are dealing with injuries that could limit them as the playoffs begin.

INJURY UPDATES: Ja Morant | Stephen Curry

Memphis' young roster has proven it can win in Morant's absence but no team can go too far without its best player.

After losing in the opening round of the playoffs last year, players like Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr. received invaluable postseason experience, while veterans Steven Adams and Kyle Anderson have the experience of making deep runs.

Golden State's experienced roster has seen it all, with the core of Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson winning three titles together. The more inexperienced players on the roster can lean on their veteran leadership.

There are scenarios in which both the Grizzlies and Warriors can make deep runs, but they all hinge on things clicking on all cylinders.

Jokic Denver Nuggets
Getty Images

Tier 3: Mavericks, Jazz, Nuggets, Clippers

These four teams are all intriguing in that matchups could pave the way for them to make a deep run. And, for what it's worth, the distance between teams in Tiers 2 and 3 is very slim.

Luka Doncic is playing at an MVP level and the Mavs are building a team tailored to amplify his strengths. With one of the league's best defenses, Dallas now relies on a much more sustainable model for postseason success.

MORE: The Mavericks are finding the right combination around Luka Doncic

As we've learned about Doncic over the last three seasons, he's at his best when the stakes are highest.

Because of playoff shortcomings, Utah is often counted out but this year could be the year that it makes good on being the sleeper. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are still the stars but the Jazz have made subtle personnel changes that could address issues from previous years.

Whether or not it happens remains to be seen.

The ceiling of both the Nuggets and Clippers depends on health as Denver could see Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. return for playoff action while the return of Kawhi Leonard hasn't been ruled out.

INJURY UPDATES: Paul George | Kawhi Leonard

Nikola Jokic is arguably the NBA's best player, which means the Nuggets always have a chance. There are plenty of variables with LA, but no top seed would want to face a fully healthy Clippers team in the first round.

Tier 4: Timberwolves, Pelicans, Lakers, Spurs

It somewhat feels wrong to place them here but the Timberwolves aren't quite as dangerous as the teams in Tier 3 despite being the most complete team in Tier 4 by far.

With Anthony Edwards, D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota has created distance from the other Play-In Tournament teams, but it isn't inconceivable that it misses the postseason altogether if it were to finish seventh and lose two in a row. 

Despite the difference in record, it's hard to imagine the Wolves, Pelicans, Lakers or Spurs winning a series above any of the higher seeds in these playoffs.

The Lakers have had an unfortunate season due to injury and, as a result, their outlook is the bleakest. A veteran-laden roster led by LeBron James is in danger of missing out on postseason play, and there's nothing encouraging to take from that.

MORE: Lakers' Play-In Tournament and playoff scenarios

On the other hand, the Pelicans and Spurs should both be encouraged.

New Orleans is trending upward, making a playoff push under a rookie head coach after a 1-12 start to the season and playing without Zion Williamson all year. The trio of Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas has been as impressive as the play of the Pelicans' up-and-comers.

San Antonio is rebuilding for the future and a postseason appearance — be it in the Play-In Tournament or in a series as the eighth seed — provides invaluable experience for the young core of the future.

Gilbert McGregor

Gilbert McGregor Photo

Gilbert McGregor first joined The Sporting News in 2018 as a content producer for Global editions of NBA.com. Before covering the game, McGregor played basketball collegiately at Wake Forest, graduating with a Communication degree in 2016. McGregor began covering the NBA during the 2017-18 season and has been on hand for a number of league events.