The top-seeded Nuggets will try to wrap up their first-round series tonight against the eighth-seeded Timberwolves at 9 p.m. ET in Game 5 of their first-round series. The Wolves staved off elimination in Game 4, defeating the Nuggets 114-108 in overtime.
The Timberwolves were again led by third-year guard Anthony Edwards, who is turning into a star before our eyes. Edwards scored 35 points on 12-of-27 shooting from the field and five-of-12 shooting from three-point range. He also recorded six rebounds, five assists, three blocks, and two steals in the six-point overtime win. Edwards has scored at least 30 points in three-straight games, and the Nuggets do not seem to have an answer for the former first-overall pick. Edwards also had some help, as Rudy Gobert (14 points and 15 rebounds) and Karl Anthony-Towns (17 points and 11 rebounds) posted double-doubles and Mike Conley put up 19 points and eight assists.
As for the Nuggets, two-time MVP Nikola Jokic put forth an outstanding performance, showing again why he's in the running for his third MVP. Jokic had 43 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists while making clutch plays down the stretch for Denver. Jamal Murray (19 points, seven rebounds, and five assists) and Michael Porter Jr. (15 points and five rebounds) also made plays late in the fourth quarter as they overcame a 12-point deficit to force overtime.
Can the Nuggets wrap up the series tonight at home, or will the Timberwolves extend this series once more game? Below, we'll break down tonight's Nuggets-Timberwolves matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Timberwolves +9.5 (-105); Timberwolves -9.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 220.5 (-110); UNDER 220.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +350; Nuggets -450
The Nuggets are 9.5-point favorites heading into tonight's Game 5, despite losing in overtime on Sunday night in Game 4. Denver has been favored in every game in this first-round matchup and is -10000 to win this series after opening up the playoffs as -500 favorites. The public likes the Nuggets' chances to close out the series tonight, receiving 58 percent of the bets (73 percent of the handle) on the spread and receiving 56 percent of the bets (90 percent of the handle) on the moneyline.
Denver won Games 1 and 2 at home by an average of 19 points and is 23-15-1 against the spread as a home favorite this season (including the postseason). In their two wins at home, the Nuggets shot 49.8 percent from the field and 43.3 percent from three-point range. If Denver can hit those numbers tonight and keep Edwards in check, it will go a long way in helping it secure the series-clinching win.
However, since Game 1, it's been hard for the Nuggets to contain Edwards, who is averaging 37 points per game in his past three outings. If Edwards is hitting his shots, it opens up the floor for Gobert and Towns to do what they need to do on both sides of the ball. For the Wolves to have a shot tonight, they must take care of the ball and be competitive in points in the paint and fast break points. In Game 4, Minnesota only had 12 turnovers, but it led to 22 points for the Nuggets, which cannot happen tonight. Also, they can't blow multiple double-digit leads late in the game.
The Nuggets will likely close out the series tonight at home, but we still like the Wolves to cover the spread.
Prediction: Nuggets 115, Timberwolves 109. The Timberwolves (+9.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (220.5)
Best player prop bet for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Jamal Murray OVER 4.5 rebounds (+100)
We will jump on Murray's rebounding prop, which is sitting at plus money on BetMGM. The veteran point guard has done a respectable job cleaning the glass in this best-of-seven series, averaging six rebounds per game. Murray has gone OVER 4.5 rebounds in three out of the four games in this series and five out of his past 10 games (including the regular season). This prop will fall under the radar for most bettors. According to BetMGM Sportsbook Insights, the most bet player props for this game are Edwards OVER 28.5 points (-125), Porter Jr. OVER 2.5 three-pointers made (-120), and Jokic to record a triple-double (Yes +210).
