The Celtics look to finish their gentleman's sweep of the Hawks Tuesday night (7:30 p.m., TNT), with Boston favored by a whopping 13.5 points. Dejounte Murray will be watching this one from home after the NBA suspended the star guard for bumping into and "verbally abusing" a ref following Atlanta's Game 4 loss to Boston. It's a major blow to an ATL squad that has relied heavily on its offseason acquisition all series. Now, BetMGM lists the Celtics as -1000 on the moneyline, which is basically saying they have a 90-percent chance of closing out the series tonight.
Murray has averaged 25.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists this series while shooting 45.6 from the floor, 39.4 from three-point land, and 100 percent from the line. He has 13 treys in the four-game series, and he's also notched nine steals and a block on the defensive end. The sixth-year guard has easily been the biggest difference-maker for Quin Snyder's Hawks, and yet they were barely able to eke out one win in Game 3. Without Murray, Atlanta will need an old-fashioned Trae Young miracle game like we saw from the hot-shooting youngster in the Hawks' 2021 run to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Joe Mazzulla's Celtics clearly smell blood, after systematically breaking the Hawks spirit in Game 4. Boston won the rebounding battle by seven and outscored Atlanta 56-44 in the paint, largely thanks to Robert Williams and his 13 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, two blocks, and two steals. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown got their shine on, pouring in 31 points apiece on a combined 20-of-42 shooting and 15-of-17 from the line. Veteran Al Horford posted a game-high +17 without scoring a single point.
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We don't have a magic 8-ball, but all signs point to Boston closing out this series and getting a few nights of rest ahead of the second round. Of course, that doesn't mean we will be touching the Celtics' -13.5 spread or -1000 moneyline, both of which offer little to no value. Let's take a closer look at the odds and then discuss which bets we will be making for this evening's Game 5 tilt between the Celtics and the Hawks.
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Celtics vs. Hawks odds, picks, predictions, and player props
- Spread: Celtics -13.5 (-105) | Hawks +13.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 229.5 (-110) | UNDER 229.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -1000 | Hawks +625
As we indicated earlier, we hate the value being offered up here. To make a $50 profit on the Celtics' moneyline, you would have to risk $500, and to win on Boston's spread, you would need a wire-to-wire drubbing with no garbage-time silly stats. As much as we love Tatum and company to close out this series at the TD Garden, we can't recommend you go the traditional betting route.
Instead, dive deeper. There are player props that we love tonight, including a BetMGM two-player parlay that calls for Tatum and Brown to each score 25-plus points. With Atlanta missing one of its best perimeter defenders in Murray, the Jays back home in front of a raucous Celtics Nation, and JB unmasked and finally hitting his groove, we like the chances of the All-Star duo igniting this evening. They might both hit 25 by the end of the third frame.
Unmasked Jaylen Brown pic.twitter.com/zqfikQ2QHB
— Moe Jazzulla (@JoeyMBaby) April 24, 2023
You can also get good value (+350) on Williams recording another double-double. Mazzulla and the Celts unleashed Time Lord on the post in Game 4, wreaking havoc as a rim protector and board-crasher on one end and supplying a handful of easy scores near the hoop as the recipient of drive-and-dishes from Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, and Malcolm Brogdon. Expect Boston to strike that chord again tonight, as Williams finally looks to be rounding back into his 2022 postseason form.
Robert Williams III has been huge for the Cs vs ATL. He has been a force on the interior both offensively & defensively! Offensively great at positioning himself, being physical & then finishing these plays. Defensively he’s holding down the interior & making plays happen. pic.twitter.com/D8FVbPT70i
— Just Hoops Basketball (@JustHoops5) April 25, 2023
If you don't like player props, you should consider buying the Celtics four points and betting them -9.5 at -185, or you could take them -3.5 at halftime at -250. You could also gamble in a risk-reward move and bet Boston to win by a specific winning margin. Our favorite is Celtics by 6-10 points at +400.
You could even put $50 on Celtics by 6-10 at +400 and $50 on Celtics by 11-15 at +425 and win at least $150 if Boston wins by 6-15 points. Of course, you would risk losing all $100 if the C's win by less than six or more than 15, but it would make for a fun ride — way more fun than we envision the Hawks having tonight at TD Garden!
Prediction: Celtics 118, Hawks 107. The Celtics win (-1000) but the Hawks cover (+13.5) and the total goes UNDER (229.5). We hate playoff over/unders, though, and we won't touch the moneyline, spread, or total tonight. We're putting $50 on the Celtics by 6-10 and $50 on the Celtics by 11-15 and crossing our fingers for an easy $150 profit.
