All season, the Kings have defied the odds and been perched among the best in the parity-driven NBA. Now, they have a chance to go into the defending-champions' home arena and take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Let's discuss everything you need to know about the Kings-Warriors' showdown from a betting standpoint before dishing out our best bets, predictions, and favorite player prop.
Many believed the Warriors would sail smoothly through the first round after getting three-and-D forward Andrew Wiggins back following his lengthy regular-season absence for personal reasons. Then Golden State locked up the sixth seed, avoiding the NBA Play-In Tournament and ultimately drawing the Kings. Sacramento — while strong all season under former Warriors assistant coach and newly-named Coach of the Year Mike Brown — just ended a 17-year playoff drought. The Warriors entered the postseason -300 favorites to advance to the second round.
But the Kings have been playing like perennial contenders, thanks in large part to De'Aaron Fox, the first-ever recipient of the Clutch Player of the Year award. Fox has been "nails" in the most crucial moments of games over the past two seasons, but his ice-in-the-veins performances during this latest stretch have been borderline Steph Curry-like. Now, Curry and Klay Thompson have a taller first-round task than they've ever faced — bouncing back from an 0-2 series deficit without the services of Draymond Green.
MORE: Warriors' most epic playoff comebacks
Green has been suspended for Game 3 after letting his short temper and aggressive spontaneity get the best of him yet again. In short, the one-time Defensive Player of the Year, four-time All-Star, and seven-time All-Defensive selection stomped on the chest of Kings center Domantas Sabonis.
MORE: Underdog Kings lead Warriors despite little support from the betting public
Until the suspension was announced, Golden State had been -7.5 favorites (and -300 on the moneyline) despite trailing in the series 0-2. Since the news, the spread has been trimmed down to Dubs -5.5 and -250 on the moneyline. That's still a ton of respect from oddsmakers considering Steve Kerr recently said, "We don't win four NBA championships without Draymond Green."
MORE: Key stats to know about the Warriors without Draymond Green
Can Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins rally the troops to get a huge win over surging Sacramento, or will the Kings beat the reigning champs again and become massive favorites to win the series? Let's break down the odds and make our best bets.
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Warriors vs. Kings odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Warriors -5.5 (-115) | Kings +5.5 (-105)
- Total: OVER 239.5 (-120) | UNDER 239.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Warriors -250 | Kings +200
The sportsbooks are giving Golden State a ton of respect. Experience, the track record that comes with four championships in seven seasons, and a dominant 33-8 record at Chase Center all play into this spread. The Warriors also went an NBA-best 27-13-1 against the spread at home this season, good for a 67.5-percent cover rate.
Still, it's hard to justify putting a ton of chips in Golden State's corner given how the first two games in this series have played out, never mind the fact that the Warriors must win this one without its top defender, leading passer, and second-best rebounder. Mike Brown has Sacramento setting the pace and out-hustling his former squad, and often it looks like the Kings are on an entirely different level than the reigning champs.
Depth has been an issue, too. Jordan Poole has been atrocious, shooting five-of-17 from the floor and two-of-eight from three-point land. Moses Moody, one of Golden State's other rising stars under 25, has looked equally as puzzled by the moment at times. Poole and Moody each scored just four points in Game 2. Only one other reserve, Gary Payton II, scored in the contest, finishing with 13 points and six boards.
Meanwhile, the Kings had six different players score in the teens or better, and both De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis finished with 24 points. Sacramento also won the turnover battle 14-20 and beat the Warriors in the paint 54-40. Oh, and the defensive stats? The Kings had 11 steals and five blocks while the Warriors finished with just six and two.
With all that said, we're still talking about Steph Curry's squad here. Let's not forget that a little under a year ago, the shooting GOAT put the Warriors on his back to beat an overall superior Celtics team in six games.
We're either staying far away from the spread or buying a few points on the Kings' end (we actually smashed the Kings at +9.5 after they opened at +7.5). We also see plenty of value in the UNDER with plus odds, as 240 points seems way too high even without Green on the floor. Remember: he's a strong defender, but he's also their leading playmaker and assists man. Parts of this game could get ugly, which typically pushes games in the direction of UNDER. The OVER went just 16-23-2 at Chase Center during the 2022-23 season.
Prediction: Warriors 120, Kings 116. The Warriors win (-250) but fail to cover the spread (-5.5), with the game going UNDER the total (239.5). Either buy some points to trim down the Warriors' spread to -2.5 (-185) or buy points to increase Sacramento's spread to +9.5 (-165). We would also consider parlaying the Warriors' moneyline with the UNDER wherever you are allowed.
Best player prop bet for Warriors vs. Kings: Andrew Wiggins OVER 6.5 rebounds (-110)
Wiggins stepped up big time in the 2022 NBA Finals, proving to be the x-factor as a defensive stalwart against Jayson Tatum. We think he will step up tonight as well in Green's absence, and one of the boxes Wiggins must check is on the defensive glass. If Golden State allows the scrappy Kings to attack the boards and win the rebounding battle this evening, Steve Kerr might as well book his tropical fishing expeditions for next week. Green had nine rebounds in Game 1 and four in Game 2 before getting ejected, and we don't expect Kevon Looney to make up all the lost ground on the interior. We have confidence that Wiggins will clear seven or eight boards tonight and cash his OVER bettors.
