After taking a 2-1 series lead with a dominant 111-101 victory in Game 3, the seventh-seeded Lakers attempt to go up 3-1 against the second-seeded Grizzlies on Monday night (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT). Although they won by just 10, the final score of Saturday's contest wasn't indicative of how impressive the Lakers looked, as a late-fourth-quarter surge from Ja Morant made the game appear closer than it was.
Morant was the game's leading scorer (45 points, 13-of-26 FG), pouring in 22 consecutive points for the Grizzlies in the fourth quarter, but his 45-piece didn't mean much considering the Lakers were in control from tip to finish. The Lake Show built a 29-point first-half lead (44-15), coming out with plenty of energy in front of the sold-out Crypto.com Arena crowd. The Association's hottest team since the trade deadline put it on the second-seeded Grizzlies, and it now sits as a hefty -350 series favorite to advance to the second round.
He didn't drop a 40-piece, but LeBron James put forth another efficient showing (25 points, 10-of-20 FG) while Anthony Davis continued to feast against the shorthanded Grizzlies' frontcourt (31 points, 11-of-24 FG). L.A.'s backcourt tandem of Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell combined for 30 points, while Rui Hachimura made six-of-10 shots, including two threes, to lead L.A.'s second unit in scoring (16 points).
Outside of Morant nearly accounting for half his team's points, Desmond Bane scored 18 points on seven-of-14 shooting, but the rest of the Grizzlies' rotational players had rather inefficient showings. Following his eyebrow-raising postgame comments, Dillon Brooks shot a putrid three-of-13 from the field and was ejected in the third quarter after committing a flagrant foul on James.
Will the Lakers take an emphatic 3-1 lead, or can the Grizzlies bounce back and steal one on the road? Below, we'll break down Monday night's Lakers-Grizzlies matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Lakers vs. Grizzlies odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Lakers -4.5 (-115); Grizzlies +4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 220.5 (-120); UNDER 220.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Lakers -210; Grizzlies +170
After closing as four-point home favorites in Game 3, the Lakers' spread has been adjusted just a half-point leading into Game 4. Memphis' late-fourth quarter rally might be the reason this spread hasn't ballooned out to -5.5 or -6 in favor of Los Angeles.
Given how weak the Grizzlies' interior defense was on Saturday night (58 points in the paint), we're not sure the Grizzlies can get enough stops when it matters most tonight. Memphis is allowing the most points in the paint per game in the playoffs (54.7) and will likely allow a similar number in Game 4. The Lakers didn't even shoot well from three on Saturday night (seven-of-28 3PT) but still finished the game with 111 points.
The Grizzlies defense has also struggled in transition, allowing a league-high 18.7 fastbreak points this postseason. When matched up against a Lakers' bunch that wants to run as much as possible (fourth in pace), the Grizzlies must do a better job of getting back to limit the Lakers' transition game, otherwise, this series is all but over.
Given we see a better three-point shooting output from the Lakers, Los Angeles is in a prime position to take a 3-1 series lead and advance to the Western Conference semifinals. Davis will once again be too much for the Grizzlies' frontcourt to handle, while L.A. gets efficient scoring outputs from James, Reaves, Hachimura, and Dennis Schroder. Morant's a safe bet to carry the scoring load for Memphis, but can Bane or Jaren Jackson Jr. drop 25-plus points to help him?
Prediction: Lakers 115, Grizzlies 108. The Lakers (-4.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (220.5)
Best player prop bet for Lakers vs. Grizzlies: Dennis Schroder OVER 0.5 made three-pointers (-155)
This prop might be too juicy for some, but we'll gladly lay -155 on Schroder to connect at least one three off the bench tonight. Dating back to the regular season, Schroder's made at least one three in nine of his past 14 games (64.2 percent). The -155 juice on his OVER 0.5 made threes prop implies he has a 60.78-percent chance of connecting from deep, and given this 14-game sample, we have a tiny edge here. He's only taken 10 threes in four postseason games (including L.A.'s lone Play-In game), but he's made five of those triples and is amid an efficient shooting stretch.
