We are past the unofficial halfway point of the 2023-24 NBA season, and with fewer than 30 games remaining for each team, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape.
While the Celtics have a strong hold on the No. 1 seed in the East with a six-game lead on the next-closest team, the final secured playoff spot is set to be a revolving door between the Pacers, Heat and Magic.
The No. 1 seed in the West is still completely up for grabs, with the Timberwolves and Thunder trying to hold their lead over the surging Clippers and defending champion Nuggets. Elsewhere in the West, the Suns, Pelicans, Mavericks, Kings, Lakers and Warriors are all fighting to avoid the Play-In Tournament.
The Sporting News breaks down the intense playoff race down the season's homestretch below.
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Predictions for the final stretch of NBA's regular season
Race for the No. 1 seed in the West
The Timberwolves entered the All-Star break with a 1.5-game lead over the Thunder for first place in the West. They say defense wins championships, and Minnesota is looking to convert that phrase into a fact, owning the best defensive rating in the NBA (108.2) for the majority of the season.
Rudy Gobert is back to competing at a Defensive Player of the Year level. Anthony Edwards' projected emergence as the NBA's next two-way star is coming to fruition. Karl-Anthony Towns is starting to get comfortable playing the four alongside Gobert. Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are all leaning into their respective roles to help elevate Minnesota to contender status.
But the Timberwolves are far from a lock to earn the West's No. 1 seed.
The Thunder have accelerated their championship timeline behind the MVP-level play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Canadian superstar entered the break ranking second in the NBA in total points and first in total steals. Jalen Williams has developed into a future All-Star. Chet Holmgren has anchored Oklahoma City to a top-five defense. The only team in the league with a better net rating than the Thunder (7.3) is the Celtics (10.3).
However, those two surprise leaders in the West have experienced teams right on their tail.
The Clippers are only two games back from first and have completely flipped the script after struggling in the immediate aftermath of the James Harden trade. Kawhi Leonard is sneaking his way into the MVP conversation, Paul George is still a two-way stud, Russell Westbrook is embracing his role off the bench and Harden is comfortably taking a back seat on offense to facilitate it all. If they can stay healthy, they might be the most dangerous team in the conference.
The Nuggets are hiding in plain sight, three games back from first after Nikola Jokic averaged 26.1 points, 12.0 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game on cruise control in the unofficial first half of the season. Jamal Murray missed 15 games due to various injuries, and the focus is on keeping him healthy for when it matters most. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are still thriving in their roles, playing off of Jokic and Murray.
Even if Denver isn't as deep as it was when it won the 2023 NBA Finals, the West still goes through the Mile High City, and I believe they'll make that clear post-All-Star break.
Prediction: The Nuggets finish No. 1 in the West
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Battle for the final secured playoff spot in the East
The East playoff picture feels a little more concrete than the West. The Celtics are holding down the No. 1 spot while the Cavaliers, Bucks, Knicks and 76ers all feel safe to remain in the top six.
That means there is one more guaranteed playoff spot up for grabs, and the Pacers, Heat and Magic are all gunning for it.
Indiana has a half-game hold on Miami and Orlando for now, and it just made a win-now move at the trade deadline by acquiring star forward Pascal Siakam. The small sample-size returns have resulted in a 7-8 record and a -1.0 net rating, but it's important to note that All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton has only played 10 of the 15 games alongside Siakam due to an ankle injury. That tandem began to find its groove just before the break, as the Pacers won four of their past six games.
The Magic started the season blistering hot, rising as high as second in the East with wins over established contenders like Milwaukee, Denver and Boston. They have since come back down to earth, but they're still ahead of schedule as a potential playoff team. All-Star forward Paolo Banchero has made it clear he's franchise player material and rising star Franz Wagner has proved to be a more-than-capable 1B. Orlando's length gives opponents trouble with a top-five defense, and it's a scrappy group no team would want to see in the first round.
Then there's the Heat, who showed last season that it doesn't matter if they're a Play-In team or the No. 1 seed — they're capable of making a run. Miami feels like a sleeping giant, ready to flip a switch after the break. Bam Adebayo has been one of the best two-way players in the NBA this season, and Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier give the Heat a jolt of offense that they didn't have during last year's playoff run (although Rozier will be out for a few weeks with a knee injury).
Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Kevin Love, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jovic have all proved capable of contributing in spots. Most importantly, I'm not sure Jimmy Butler has even started trying yet.
Miami took the difficult path of reaching the NBA Finals from the Play-In Tournament last year. It won't make the same mistake this time around.
Prediction: Heat claim No. 6 seed
Will the Mavericks, Lakers and Warriors be West Play-In teams?
Only five games separate the Suns in fifth place and the Warriors in 10th place in the West. Between those two headlining franchises are talented teams like the Pelicans, Mavericks, Kings and Lakers, all of whom do not believe they belong in the Play-In Tournament.
That should make for a fiery and chaotic playoff push in the West.
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Phoenix is starting to click now that Bradley Beal has been healthy and available alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, going 16-7 since the New Year. New Orleans is currently a top-six seed even though Zion Williamson hasn't played at the All-Star level we've seen him capable of reaching.
Dallas has been carried by Luka Doncic's league-leading 34.2 points per game while Kyrie Irving has been in and out of the lineup. It made a couple of key acquisitions to bolster its frontcourt depth at the trade deadline, bringing in Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington.
Sacramento hasn't been able to replicate last year's success, but Domantas Sabonis has been a machine, recording 37 consecutive double-doubles and a league-leading 18 triple-doubles. It desperately needs De'Aaron Fox to regain his form after he cooled off from a hot start.
Los Angeles and Golden State have been the NBA's version of Jekyll and Hyde. Neither has played with an ounce of consistency, but there are no rosters in today's NBA with more championship experience than the ones led by LeBron James and Stephen Curry.
As the Warriors proved in their first-round matchup with the Kings last year, no young team at the top of the standings should want to see either of these franchises in Round 1.
Prediction: Suns, Pelicans, Kings and Warriors end up in the Play-In Tournament
