Best NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Cavs, Thunder, Luka Doncic headline picks for Tuesday May 7

Included in this betting preview:

• Best moneyline pick
• Best bet against the spread
• Top over/under bet
• Highest-value player prop
• Full odds board for the day
• Updated NBA Playoffs bracket

The 2024 NBA Playoffs roll on into Tuesday, with the Cavs and Mavs hoping to knock off the top-seeded Celtics and Thunder.

Betting the second round can be tricky — but with the right approach, the ability to research stat and betting trends, and a focus on value, it's easy to identify moneyline, spread, and over/under picks on BetMGM. 

MORE NBA PLAYOFFS BETTING:
Can Cleveland hang with Boston? | Can Lu Dort slow down Luka Doncic?

Coming off a gentleman's sweep of the Heat, the Celtics open as massive -11.5 favorites against the Cavs after Cleveland outlasted Orlando in a seven-game battle.

Oklahoma City, coming off a first-round sweep of the Pelicans, sits as a more modest -3.5 favorite versus Dallas. The Mavs finished the Clippers off in six games, but OKC is younger, healthier, and deeper.

Let's get right to the best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets for Tuesday.

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top moneyline bet

Thunder (-160) vs. Mavs

Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Mavs impressed with a six-game series victory over the Clippers, but OKC might have swept Los Angeles if given the same matchup. Kawhi Leonard was hurt and missed most of the series, Russell Westbrook shot worse than ever, and Paul George and James Harden seemed unfazed by losing.

Newsflash: OKC doesn't do "lackluster." This squad finished first in the loaded West and maintained a top-four offensive and defensive rating all season. However you want to look at it, the Thunder has an advantage tonight. They're 35-8 at home since the start of the season. They're riding a nine-game winning streak. They're 15-4 with a rest advantage. The Mavs last played four days ago — OKC has been off since April 30.

The Thunder have the Coach of the Year in Mark Daigneault, a legit MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and a rim protector and unicorn-type scorer in Chet Holmgren. Oh, and don't forget "the others": Jalen Williams (aka the Robin to SGA's Batman), stud perimeter defender Lu Dort and Josh 'Mr. Efficiency' Giddey. 

If you can't get excited about the young-gunning Thunder, you might want to check your pulse. The Mavs might be able to get one or two victories at home, but it's a stretch to think they'll steal Game 1 from a younger, healthier and deeper squad in the raucous Oklahoma City atmosphere.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 111, Mavericks 106 — OKC wins (-160) and covers the -3.5 spread (-110), while the final score goes just OVER the projected total of 216.5 (-115).

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick 

Cavaliers +11.5 at Celtics (-110)

The 2023-24 Celtics mounted one of the best regular-season campaigns of the 21st century, securing the top seed in the East weeks before the postseason started. But it's important to understand that the conference was incredibly banged up — perhaps more than ever — and now it's Boston that will be without a key cog in Kristaps Porzingis (calf).Ok 

The Cavs always play Boston tough. They're actually 4-3 against the Celtics dating back to the beginning of the 2022-23 season, and three of those games went to overtime. Don't go betting the house on Cleveland's +425 moneyline, though — J.B. Bickerstaff's guys have lost three straight games at TD Garden. This bet is all about the cover.

You have to go way back to January 2021 to find a Cavs-Celts game in which Boston won by 12 points or more. For 12 consecutive head-to-head meetings, the margin of victory has been 10 points or fewer. And with Cleveland playing great defense and both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland riding an offensive high coming off a Game 7 victory over Orlando, the best bet to make is Cavs +11.5.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 107, Cavaliers 102 — Boston wins (-600) but Cleveland covers the +11.5 spread (-110) and the final score goes just OVER the projected total (208.5).

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Celtics UNDER 57.5 first-half points vs. Cavaliers (-125)

The Celtics come into the second round ill-prepared to face the stifling Cavs. The Heat without Jimmy Butler seem like an easier out than the Bulls would have been for Boston, and now against a surprisingly-healthy Cleveland team the Celts will have a tough time without Kristaps Porzingis.

Al Horford will have his hands full with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, not to mention the rim penetration that Donovan Mitchell will likely engage in early and often. If Horford gets tired or gets into foul trouble, who helps off the bench? Luke Kornet played Bam Adebayo pretty well in his limited first-round minutes, but the twin towers of Cleveland are an even greater test. Will Xavier Tillman see meaningful minutes?

Long story short, the Cavs could be packing a big punch in the first half, which could limit Boston's ability to control the pace. And with KP not around to sink some much-needed jumpers, space the floor, and clean up the offensive glass, the Celtics could easily fall behind by intermission. Regardless, it's difficult to imagine Boston — likely rusty from six days off — scoring 58 first-half points against a solid defense. 

HALFTIME PREDICTION: Celtics 53, Cavaliers 49 — Boston wins (-350) the half but fails to cover the -6.5 first-half spread (-110) and goes UNDER its first-half team total of 57.5 (-125)

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet

Luka Doncic points: OVER 32.5 (-120) 

Luka has been playing like a man possessed this postseason, and now he gets to face an OKC squad he has averaged 34.3 points per game against over the past two seasons. This may seem like a preposterous OVER to suggest, but it feels even more absurd to doubt the best scorer in the world in the second round of the playoffs.

Lu Dort has been a fantastic perimeter defender for years, and he will almost certainly be Doncic's primary defender during this series. But Dort gives up size, strength, and wingspan to Luka, and the scoring champ's step-back trey and post moves are practically unguardable when he's on.

MORE: Breaking down the Doncic vs. Dort matchup

NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board

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NBA Playoffs updated bracket