As we inch closer to the end of the 2023-24 NBA season, the top seed in the Western Conference remains up for grabs. Nikola Jokic and the reigning-champion Nuggets have been jockeying with the Wolves and Thunder all season long, and it looks like we could be in for a fascinating finish. As such, we're breaking down the odds to finish with the best record in the West.
Today we will look over the odds for each of these three Northwest division teams to come out on top.
This might be the understatement of the sports year, but the West is in great shape. Whereas the East has battled a plethora of injuries, waves of inconsistency from some top-tier teams, and a runaway first-place squad in the Celtics, the Western Conference has enjoyed what feels like an unprecedented level of parity all season long.
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Denver remains as polished a team as we've seen in the 21st century, guided by soon-to-be three-time MVP Jokic. Minnesota has the best defense in the NBA, led by expected Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, and it never hurts to have a superstar wing like Anthony Edwards. OKC, the youngest team in the Association, has thrived on both ends of the floor thanks to MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Coach of the Year favorite Mark Daigneault.
So, which squad do oddsmakers give the edge to win the Northwest division — and for that matter, the Western Conference as a whole? Do any bets outside of the defending champions make sense? Let's take a look at the BetMGM NBA odds, assess the betting value, and go over our best bet recommendations.
NBA odds to finish with best record in Western Conference
| Team | Odds | Record |
| Denver Nuggets | -250 | 55-24 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +275 | 55-24 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +1100 | 54-25 |
To nobody's surprise, the reigning champs have been listed as the odds-on favorites to win the Northwest division, which basically translates to winning the conference. With only three games remaining, no other squad in the West can catch these teams even if all three lost their last remaining contests.
Denver's -250 represents an implied win probability of over 71 percent. Minnesota, despite being tied with the Nuggets as of April 10, has an implied probability of just over 26 percent. OKC's +1100 odds, meanwhile, translate to a mere 8.3 percent probability.
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Remaining schedules in race for Western Conference best record
| Team | Opp. 1 (4/10) | Opp. 2 (4/12) | Opp. 3 (4/14) |
| Nuggets | vs. MIN (55-24) | @ SA (20-59) | @ MEM (27-52) |
| Wolves | @ DEN (55-24) | vs. ATL (36-43) | vs. PHO (46-33) |
| Thunder | vs. SA (20-59) | vs. MIL (48-31) | vs. DAL (49-30) |
This should be a fascinating final four regular-season days. The Nuggets and Wolves clash on Wednesday should give off playoff vibes, and Rookie of the Year lock Victor Wembanyama has a chance to play spoiler for OKC and Denver by the end of the week. Beyond that, the likes of Atlanta, Phoenix, Milwaukee, and Dallas all have something to play for right up to the end of the campaign.
Even if Giannis Antetokounmpo sits out the rest of the regular season with his calf injury, it's safe to say the Thunder have the most difficult remaining schedule with Wemby, Milwaukee, and Dallas. The Spurs already beat OKC 132-118 on Leap Day, the Bucks showcased on Tuesday that they can beat a powerhouse without Giannis, and the Mavs have won 15 of their past 17 contests.
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The Wolves don't have an easy road, either, especially with Karl-Anthony Towns still on the shelf. They'll go into enemy territory and face the mile-high altitude on Wednesday, then host Dejounte Murray and the pesky Hawks, then close the season against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and the Suns. Yipes.
That leaves Denver — currently tied with Minnesota for the best record in the West — as the squad with the best remaining schedule out of these three. Sure, they'll be on the road for two of the three games, but remember that this team has gone 23-16 away from Ball Arena this season and 6-3 on the road in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. The Nugs sure seem poised to once again lock up home-court advantage for the entirety of the Western Conference Playoffs.
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NBA odds to finish with best record in West: Tiebreakers
Of course, things get tight toward the end of the season when conferences have as much parity as the West has right now. It's important for us to know the NBA's tiebreaker rules before we fire off any futures bets on the team to win the West.
Here's the order of the NBA's official tiebreaker rules, and how they could affect Denver, Minnesota, and OKC.:
- Head-to-head record; better record in games with the tied teams
- Division record; better record in games against teams in its own division (only if the teams are in the same division)
- Conference record; better record in games against teams in its own conference
- Winning percentage against playoff teams in its own conference
- Winning percentage against playoff teams in the opposing conference
- Point differential in all games
The Wolves have defeated the Nuggets in two of their three meetings this season, so Wednesday night's tilt between Minnesota and Denver basically takes on a playoff feel. Minnesota also has a superior divisional record (12-3) than Denver (9-6), so the Nuggets need to beat the Wolves on Wednesday and finish ahead of them in the standings on Sunday.
The Thunder have a 3-1 season series advantage over Denver, so the same applies for the Nuggets in that scenario. OKC split its season series with Minnesota, however, and the Thunder have gone 12-4 in divisional contests so the Wolves own the tiebreaker as of now. A Minnesota loss helps the Thunder tonight, but it simultaneously hurts them because it gives Denver another full-game advantage over OKC in the standings.
NBA odds to finish with best record in West: Best bet
Surprise, surprise — we're going with Joker and the Nuggets to win the Northwest division and finish the 2023-24 NBA season with the best record in the Western Conference.
Michael Malone's squad is too well-coached, too experienced, and too well-oiled a machine to falter in the most important three games of its regular season. Expect a level of preparedness, strategy, and execution from the Nuggets throughout the remainder of this week that Minnesota and OKC simply cannot replicate.
It's tough to make a short-term futures bet on a squad yielding -250 odds, we get it. That's more juice than my two-year old takes on when I fall asleep on the couch on Saturday morning. However, we can't make bets on Minnesota and OKC simply because they have plus odds — in cases like these, the best bet is the best bet, even if the winning payout won't exactly be paying off the grocery bill for the week.
BEST BET: The Nuggets (-250) win the Northwest division and lock up the No. 1 seed throughout the Western Conference Playoffs.
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