As the NBA Conference Finals roll on, bettors with pending futures tickets on either the 2023 NBA Finals winner or the exact outcome can see their fortunes change on a dime following the result of each nail-biting game.
When holding onto a futures bet like this, it's best to avoid overreacting to the fluctuation in odds and letting these best-of-seven's play out. The same can be said when looking at the stock market. You're often better off not checking your positions too often to avoid impulsive decisions relative to short-term market fluctuations. Trust your gut. You made this bet/trade for a reason, and even though the odds might move against you one day, they could reverse themselves the next.
With the help of BetMGM, we've looked into how the betting public's approaching the current 2023 NBA Finals futures markets. Do bettors think Playoff Jimmy can take the Heat to the promised land, or do they believe two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets will claim their first NBA championship in franchise history?
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NBA Finals Odds: Outright Winner
| Team | Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
| Nuggets | +150 | 15.9% | 17.0% |
| Celtics | +150 | 12.9% | 17.8% |
| Lakers | +500 | 9.2% | 9.3% |
| Heat | +750 | 4.8% | 2.9% |
Now that we're one game deep into the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets and Celtics sit as co-favorites to win the NBA Finals. Boston had sat alone as the odds-on favorite to win the Finals before Wednesday's night loss (+110), but after falling down 1-0, the Celtics' championship odds dropped to +150. Boston's now only a -225 favorite to advance past the Heat after sitting as a -500 favorite on the pre-series line.
Despite blowing a double-digit lead to the resilient Heat, the betting public isn't giving up hope on Joe Mazzula's bunch yet. Relative to their ticket percentage, Boston's garnered the highest handle percentage at BetMGM and is the second-most bet team among the four remaining squads vying for the NBA title.
Sportsbook ticket writers have seen more Nuggets (+150) championship bets come in, though, and that number could climb even higher if Michael Malone's crew takes a commanding 2-0 series lead in the WCF.
The Lakers (+500) remain a public darling despite seeing the third-highest ticket percentage among the four remaining teams, as bettors aren't as willing to bet them at +500 after Los Angeles found themselves in +2200 at the start of the playoffs.
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Fewer bettors have faith in Erik Spoelstra's Heat to continue their Cinderella-esque run. Miami (+750) has seen just 4.8 percent of tickets accounting for only 2.9 percent of BetMGM's championship handle.
As Jimmy Butler said after Game 1, "We still don't care what none of y'all think, honestly speaking. We don't care if you pick us to win. We never have; we never will."
Miami will continue doing its thing while looking to spoil the fun for bettors thinking the eighth-seeded Heat are bound to come back down to Earth.
NBA Finals Odds: Exact Outcome
| Teams | Current Odds | Ticket% | Handle% |
| Nuggets to beat Celtics | +350 | 23% | 15% |
| Lakers to beat Heat | +1000 | 19% | 11% |
| Celtics to beat Nuggets | +250 | 17% | 29% |
| Nuggets to beat Heat | +350 | 11% | 6% |
| Heat to beat Lakers | +2000 | 9% | 4% |
| Lakers to beat Celtics | +700 | 9% | 20% |
| Celtics to beat Lakers | +600 | 8% | 10% |
| Heat to beat Nuggets | +1100 | 5% | 4% |
In BetMGM's exact outcome market, the betting public has gone the chalk route by banking on a Nuggets-Celtics final. The two exact outcomes featuring the Nuggets and Celtics are two of the three most heavily bet propositions (per ticket percentage), with a Nuggets championship paying +350 and a Celtics championship paying +250.
That said, there is a significant contingent of bettors hoping for a repeat of the 2020 Finals in Disney, with 19 percent of tickets coming in on a Lakers over Heat championship (+1000). The way the Lakers regrouped and competed in the second half of Game 1 could lead to Los Angeles parlaying that effort in Game 2 tonight, and if L.A. can pull off the road upset, a Lakers over Heat championship won't be sitting at +1000 come Friday morning.
Additionally, 20 percent of the handle is comprised of bettors hoping to see yet another Lakers-Celtics Final, with the Lakers winning their second straight Finals over the Celtics and the first since 2010.
Only 10 percent of the handle is comprised of bettors thinking the converse: Boston takes down L.A. for the ninth time in their NBA Finals rivalry dating back to the first time the L.A. Lakers met Boston in the 1962 Finals.
In this market, BetMGM's biggest liabilities are:
- Lakers to beat Heat (+1000)
- Celtics to beat Nuggets (+250)
- Nuggets to beat Celtics (+350)
BetMGM's likely in a good spot when it comes to a repeat of the 2020 NBA Finals but isn't in as favorable of a position when it comes to a Celtics-Nuggets Final. What's your pick on the exact outcome of the 2023 NBA Finals?
