In the final playoff game tonight in the Association, the No. 1 seed Nuggets will look to go up 2-0 over the No. 8 seed Timberwolves at 10 p.m. ET (TNT) in Game 2. To no one's surprise, the Nuggets dominated the Wolves in Game 1 last weekend, winning 109-80 at Ball Arena.
All five starters for the Nuggets were in double figures, including Jamal Murray, who scored a game-high 24 points on nine-of-22 shooting from the field and four-of-10 from three-point range. He also added eight rebounds and eight assists. As for Nikola Jokic, he had a regular day at the office with 13 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists. Denver will hope to have the two-time MVP center, as he's listed as "questionable" for tonight's game with a wrist injury. Jokic had his right wrist taped up in the second half of Game 1 and was seen icing it down afterward.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves had a rough offensive performance in Game 1, shooting 37 percent from the field and 30.6 percent from beyond the arc. Anthony Edwards tried his best to shoulder the offense as he had 18 points and five assists. However, Minnesota did not get nearly enough production from the duo of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, who combined for 19 points and 23 rebounds. The Wolves need more from Towns and Gobert tonight to even up the series.
Will the Nuggets take a quick 2-0 series lead over the Wolves, or will Minnesota steal home court and give themselves momentum heading back home for Game 3? Below, we'll break down tonight's Timberwolves-Nuggets matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Timberwolves +8.5 (-110); Nuggets -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 221.5 (-115); UNDER 221.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Timberwolves +280; Nuggets -350
After blowing out the Timberwolves in Game 1 last weekend, the Nuggets are 8.5-point favorites heading into tonight's Game 2. The public likes Denver's chances tonight as they are receiving 64 percent of the bets (53 percent of the handle) on the spread and 61 percent of the bets (77 percent) on the money line.
Even though Jokic is dealing with a right wrist sprain, we expect him to suit up tonight. The Nuggets are 26-15-1 against the spread at home (including the playoffs) and 22-15-1 ATS as home favorites this season.
In Game 1, Denver dominated Minnesota in the rebounding department (54-38) and scored more fast break points (16-3). There shouldn't have been that wide of a gap in fastbreak points, as the Wolves were ranked eighth in fastbreak points per game (14.7) during the regular season. We could also say the same thing about points in the paint, where Minnesota was ranked eighth (54.2). If the Wolves can get Towns and Edwards going early, it will go a long way in keeping this game competitive into the second half.
However, those are big "ifs" for the Timberwolves, who should shoot better tonight, but can they withstand a run or two from the Nuggets? That's a question we will know an answer to early tonight. Minnesota is 21-21-1 ATS on the road and 14-15-1 as a road 'dog this season (including postseason). The Wolves will have a better showing tonight in Game 2, but in the end, it will be too much Jokic, Murray, and Michael Porter Jr., who had 18 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1.
Prediction: Nuggets 118, Timberwolves 108. The Nuggets (-8.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (221.5)
Best player prop bet for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Karl-Anthony Towns to record a double-double (+165)
Since the Timberwolves can't depend on Rudy Gobert, they need Karl-Anthony Towns and Edwards to work the two-man game and make an impact. Towns recorded a double-double in Game 1 (11 points and 10 rebounds), despite only playing 28 minutes. If tonight's game is close, KAT should be able to notch another double-double. In the Timberwolves' two play-in tourney games, Towns had 28 points and 11 rebounds against the Thunder and 24 points and 11 rebounds against the Lakers. With tonight being a must-win game for the Timberwolves, I expect a ton of touches for Towns on the offensive end.
