With over 90 percent of the 2022-23 NBA season complete, the home stretch has arrived. Every contending team has been grinding to get the best possible seed headed into the postseason, and the West has been as wildly contested as ever. Tonight, the Suns host the Wolves at Footprint Center (10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN), and all eyes will be on Kevin Durant's expected return after a 10-game absence due to an ankle injury. We have all the odds, insights, analyses, and best bets to get you prepped to bet this pivotal Western Conference showdown.
While KD's home debut serves as the headliner, the recent return of Wolves' superstar Karl-Anthony Towns has been the main storyline for Minnesota. After suffering seemingly endless chemistry issues, bouts of poor late-game execution, and an increasingly frustrated fanbase, Chris Finch's team has finally hit a groove, perhaps just in time.
When healthy, Minnesota has plenty of weapons to make some noise in the West. KAT remains the most elite shooting big man in the sport. Anthony Edwards, who it should be noted is battling an injury of his own in the form of a nagging ankle sprain, is one of the most dynamic athletes and pure scorers we have ever seen at 21. Rudy Gobert continues to protect the rim and gobble up rebounds as proficiently as anyone in the Association, and former Jazz teammate Mike Conley has fit perfectly as this team's pass-first, knock-down-treys-second point guard.
Even Minnesota's ancillary pieces have been awesome. Three-and-D stud Jaden McDaniels has played with a confidence that makes you forget he's just 22. Microwave-scoring big Naz Reid has emerged as a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Underrated reserve guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker can defend well and space the floor with his three-point range, and veteran Swiss Army knife Kyle Anderson, the Slo Mo king, just keeps making winning plays game in and game out.
But KD remains one of the best offensive weapons in the NBA, and he has an even more dynamic core around him than KAT. Chris Paul aka "Point God" still serves as one of the best playmakers and open shot-creators in hoops, and his clutch mid-range game always seems to be a factor in big games. Devin Booker is perhaps the best No. 2 scorer in league history, if he can even be considered that. DeAndre Ayton, who recently returned from a four-game absence due to a hip injury, provides the interior strength needed to combat a Gobert-led frontcourt. Hell, even Phoenix's role-playing wings like Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, T.J. Warren, and Terrance Ross have been big.
The Suns have all the ingredients to put together a winning recipe at just the right time: elite point guard, two superstar scorers, above-average big, veteran three-and-D wings, plenty of depth, defensive-minded role players, and reigning Coach of the Year in Monty Williams. They will be a load for any team in the west to take down, not just in the postseason but in these final seven games of the regular season.
At 40-35 and currently in sole possession of the fourth seed, Phoenix has one fewer loss than the Clippers and two fewer losses than the Warriors. However, all three squads have 40 wins, and a whopping seven teams are within 3.5 games of the Suns. One of those squads is the Wolves (39-37), whose four-game winning streak has them just 1.5 games behind Phoenix. Minnesota has truly been clicking on all cylinders, and its 5-1-2 record ATS over the past 15 days.
Will the Wolves wild run continue in the desert this evening, or will Durant spoil Minnesota's fun and improve the Suns' home record to a stellar 25-12? Let's dive into this Western Conference battle, getting you the odds, trends, and best bets to prepare for Suns vs. Timberwolves.
Suns vs. Timberwolves odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns -5.5 (-105) | Wolves +5.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 236.5 (-110) | Under 236.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Suns -210 | Wolves +170
With Phoenix back to (relatively) full health, oddsmakers couldn't care less about Minnesota's four-game winning streak. Just like Jimmy Butler missing Miami's Tuesday night game against Toronto swung the pendulum greatly in the Raptors' favor, KD's return moves the needle for a Phoenix team that has already been phenomenal at home. At first glance, it's hard to fall in love with a line so heavily in the home team's favor. Durant could easily be on a minutes restriction, but Williams could just as well ride him 30-35 minutes knowing that Phoenix went 4-6 over the past 10 games without KD and needs the W to retain home-court advantage in the first round.
One thing that made me do a double take is all the points in the total! An over/under of 236.5 seems massive in a game that features Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Chris Paul, and Torrey Craig playing defense, but that's today's NBA for you. Phoenix averages about 114 points per game while surrendering 112, while Minnesota has scored and allowed virtually the same number of points per game, 116. The Wolves have averaged 120 ppg over their past nine games, while the Suns have scored 119.8 ppg since March 3 -- and those stats were mostly without KAT or KD. Still, we're nervous to bet such a high OVER.
Phoenix has gone 16-11-1 against the spread as a home favorite this season, a nearly 60-percent cover rate. Minnesota has gone 19-19 ATS on the road and 13-13 ATS as a road underdog, but the Wolves get up for conference games. Finch's squad has gone 27-20 ATS against Western Conference foes. In contrast, Phoenix has covered just 24 of 45 spreads against conference opponents. However, the Suns have a 27-19-1 cover rate coming off one day of rest (both teams played on Monday).
The Suns have gone just 3-6 straight up over their past nine games, and they're an even worse 2-7 ATS in that span. That will happen when you ship out Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson for KD and then your mop crew doesn't keep the layup lines dry (do your job!). Now that Phoenix's prized midseason acquisition is expected back on the court, we expect the Footprint Center to be dry as the Sonoran Desert while KD, Book, and CP3 should be wet as the Hoover Dam. We're going with the Suns -5.5 and the UNDER on the gargantuan 136.5 total. In Minnesota's past 10 games with over/unders of greater than 131.5, the OVER has gone just 3-7, and in Phoenix's home games this season, the OVER has gone just 18-18.
Best Bet: Suns -5.5 and UNDER 236.5
Suns vs. Wolves best player prop bet: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 25.5 points + rebounds (-110)
Towns played just 26 minutes in his first game back from injury one week ago, but he leveled up 32 minutes on Sunday after getting three days off. He then sat out Monday's game against the red-hot Kings, who the Wolves still knocked off thanks to some solid late-game execution and timely scoring. With KAT able to enjoy another few days of rest, we love his chances of combining for 26 points + rebounds in this pivotal Western Conference battle. In his two previous games against Phoenix this season, the three-time All-Star has averaged 17.5 points and nine rebounds per game. Expect him to easily hit 26 here since his minutes will likely be ramped up even more as Finch and company will want to trim the 1.5-game margin between Phoenix and Minnesota if possible.
