Wednesday night in the NBA wraps up with a pivotal national TV matchup between the Pelicans and the Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). This is an important game for both teams as the Pelicans (30-32) hold the final spot in the play-in tournament (10th in the West), while the Trail Blazers (29-32) are only a half-game out from the 10th spot.
If either team can make a late-season run, they could find themselves as a top-six seed. The Pelicans are just two games out of the fifth spot, and the Blazers are 2.5 games out. New Orleans enters tonight's contest on a four-game losing streak, with their most recent loss coming Monday night against the Magic (101-93). Over that stretch, the Pelicans have also lost three-straight road games by an average of 11.6 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Blazers are coming off a tough 18-point loss on Tuesday night to the Warriors after they were up by as many as 23. Damian Lillard, who dropped a career-high 71 points on Sunday night against the Rockets, got off to another hot start, scoring 14 points in the first quarter but finished the game with 25 points (9-21 FG, 2-7 3pt). The Trail Blazers also got hammered on the glass by the Warriors and didn't defend the perimeter well, which played a large part in their second-half demise.
Can the Trail Blazers pick up the pieces from last night's loss and put together a complete four-quarter effort against the Pelicans? Or will New Orleans finally snap their four-game losing streak and hold on to the 10th spot in the West? Below, we'll break down this late-night contest while giving our prediction and best bets for bettors looking for a small payday.
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: New Orleans +1.5 (-110); Portland -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 232.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +105; Portland -125
The Trail Blazers are short home favorites as they've played well at Moda Center this season with a 17-14 record. Coincidentally, Portland is also 17-14 against the spread at home and 13-9 ATS as a home favorite this season. The last time these two teams played each other was in early November when the Blazers won 106-95 in New Orleans. Portland won that game without Lillard, receiving good performances from Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Josh Hart.
Fast forward to tonight's matchup, and the Blazers won't have Hart, who is now in New York, and Simons is nursing an ankle injury. Therefore, Portland will be looking for Lillard to lead the charge against a Pelicans team that will not have Zion Williamson, Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance, and potentially Jonas Valanciunas, who is listed as "questionable" with a left calf contusion.
As for the Pelicans, they are struggling right now, losing five of their past six games and are 10-21 on the road this season. More important, New Orleans is 11-19-1 ATS on the road, which is one of the worst marks in the NBA, and 6-14-1 ATS as road underdogs. Simply put, the Pelicans have not been good to bettors this season. If the Pelicans want to win this game, they will need massive performances from C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram. Ingram is averaging 26.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists since the All-Star break but only shooting 39.7 percent from the field and 40 percent from three-point range. Meanwhile, McCollum is averaging 18.0 points and 5.0 assists per game but shooting a woeful 22.7 percent from beyond the arc.
However, one would think McCollum will play better tonight as he returns to Portland for the second time since being traded by the Trail Blazers last season at the deadline. Even with that said, with it being a small spread, we will take the Trail Blazers on the money line. Portland has one of the best players in the league right now who can win a game by himself. The Trail Blazers are also 15-16 ATS after a loss this season and 6-4 ATS on no rest. If Lillard can get off to another hot start and gets help from Jerami Grant and others, the Trail Blazers should win this game.
Finally, the other caveat to watch out for in this game is the three-point defense. The Pelicans are ranked first in three-point defense (33.9 percent), while the Blazers are ranked 23rd (37 percent). If the Blazers tighten up on the perimeter with Matisse Thybulle and others, it will go a long in helping them secure the win.
Best Bet: Trail Blazers ML -125
Best player prop bet for Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers: Brandon Ingram OVER 25.5 points (-115)
If you are looking for a player prop for tonight's game, Ingram's points prop is one of the best plays. The 25-year-old forward is averaging 27.1 points per game on 47.4-percent shooting from the field and 40 percent from three-point range. He's also taking 21.1 attempts per game from the field, which means he's getting the volume. Ingram has gone over 25.5 points in five out of his past 10 games and had three other games with at least 25 points. We might be sweating this prop bet out for most of the night, but it's worth taking a chance on.
