We have finally reached the final five-day push of the NBA regular season, with many seeds in both conferences still hanging in the balance. Games like tonight's Eastern Conference tilt between the Celtics and Raptors (7:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden) hold plenty of significance, maybe not so much for Boston and its all-but-cemented second seed but very much so for the Raptors as they try to move up in the play-in seedings. Let's dive into the odds for this late-season battle of East foes and help you decide which way to bet Wednesday evening.
Boston (54-25) sat atop the Eastern Conference for the majority of the first five months of the season, but Milwaukee promptly leap-frogged the Celtics as soon as Khris Middleton got healthy. With the Celtics having just dropped a big road game to the 76ers — and allowing Joel Embiid to log 52 points (on 20-25 shooting) — a feeling of uneasiness has settled over at least part of Celtics Nation.
Green teamers had thought the second seed might work out for Boston given its issues with the fourth-seeded Cavaliers and fifth-seeded Knicks all season -- not to mention its relative comfort against Philly -- but Tuesday night's result suggests that this Celtics team will have a much more difficult path to the NBA Finals than they enjoyed last season. Even squads like the Raptors could make things challenging.
Toronto (40-39) has won seven of its past 10 games and has its sights set on Atlanta's eighth seed. The winner of the 7-8 play-in game will get the seventh seed and a first-round matchup against the Celtics. The loser of the 7-8 game will face the winner of the 9-10 for the right to assume the eighth seed and face the Bucks in the opening round.
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Of course, it will be "pick your poison" for Nick Nurse's squad, as Boston has defeated Toronto 2-0 this season while Milwaukee has won its season series over the Raps 3-0. However, something tells us Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and company would rather avoid Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, who not too long ago won 16 games in a row and 21 of 23. The Celtics have a fantastic young duo in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but nobody touches the level of dominance we have come to expect from playoff Giannis.
Will the surging Raptors mount the upset over the Celtics despite Boston's 29-9 record at home, or will the Celtics move to 3-0 against Toronto, with the opportunity for the sweep on Friday night? Let's dive into the odds, stats, and betting trends, and make our best bets, predictions, and player prop picks.
UPDATE: Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford have all been declared OUT for tonight's contest.
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Celtics vs. Raptors odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -1.5 (-110) | Raptors +1.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 222.5 (-120) | Under 222.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Celtics -120 | Raptors +100
The Celtics, who own the second-best record in the NBA and the sixth-best home record, are the clear favorites entering the night. The glass-half-empty crowd will see that Boston got trucked by Joel Embiid last night and now must play the tail end of a road/home back-to-back. The glass-half-full peeps will see that the C's were without Jaylen Brown (lower back) and Robert Williams (heel), Embiid went off, and Boston still only lost to the three-seed by two on the road. Also, Toronto is on the tail end of a road B2B — the Raps played in Charlotte last night, winning 120-100.
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has already assured media and fans that JB and Time Lord will play this evening, while Nick Nurse has listed Gary Trent Jr. (back spasms) as "questionable" to play for the Raptors. Boston at home with a nearly full rotation against a top-heavy Toronto squad without a core rotation guard? We understand why the line has been set at 3.5.
The Raptors have gone just 16-22-1 against the spread on the road this season, while Boston has a 21-17 ATS record at home. With no rest, the C's are even better, going 8-4 ATS, and they have a 57-percent cover rate against Eastern Conference opponents.
Tatum and the Celtics have operated much better offensively at TD Garden, averaging 121.1 points per game as opposed to 115.4 ppg on the road. Similarly, Boston's D has been superior at home (111.1 ppg allowed compared to 112.4 ppg allowed on the road).
Ultimately, we see a Celtics squad that has been efficient on both sides of the floor, maintaining the second-best offensive rating and third-best defensive rating in the NBA, against a Raptors squad that's shaky on the road and ranks just 10th in o-rating and 12th in d-rating. The matchup, injury situation, and home court lead us to lean toward Boston as the favorite.
Toronto is 14-25 on the road this season, so back the Raps at your own risk. We might go with the Raptors this weekend when Boston faces them again. At that point, Boston might be resting its starters as the seeding atop the East will be just about settled, but right now, we have to take the defending Eastern Conference champs to hold court.
Best Bets: Celtics -3.5
Celtics vs. Raptors: Best player prop bet
With Jayson Tatum, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart all out — and Gary Trent Jr. still on the shelf for the Raptors — we would bet both the points over for Pascal Siakam (21.5) and the points + assists + rebounds total for Fred VanVleet (31.5).
