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NBA Best Bets for Wednesday: Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds, picks, predictions

Sloan Piva

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NBA Best Bets for Wednesday: Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds, picks, predictions image

The NBA has been on fire since the All-Star break ended last week, and we could be in for another instant classic tonight in Boston when the powerhouse Celtics host the Cavaliers at TD Garden (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Let's break down the BetMGM betting odds, trends, best bets, and top player prop for this Eastern Conference showdown.

With over 75 percent of the regular season in the books, every game matters in the mad dash to the finish line. The Celtics (44-18), who had owned the best record in the NBA for the majority of the 2022-23 campaign, recently got leap-frogged by the surging Bucks (44-17). Meanwhile, the Cavs (39-25) have won eight of their past 11 games and look to beat Boston for the third time this season after thrilling overtime wins in October and November. 

The Celtics have won nine of their past 12 games, and their 24-7 home record ranks sixth in the NBA. They are also 18-13 against the spread at home, while Cleveland has gone 13-18 in away games and 3-9 as away underdogs. As many Green Teamers remember, Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert each dropped 41 points en route to a 132-123 OT victory the last time Boston hosted the Cavs. Cleveland is the only team that Boston has not defeated at least once this season. 

The Celtics will be happy to have Jaylen Brown back after the All-Star guard missed Monday's game against the Knicks due to personal reasons. JB had previously missed five February contests due to a facial fracture sustained when he collided with Jayson Tatum. Boston went 4-1 across that stretch but lost 109-94 to a confident New York team on Monday.

Speaking of beatdowns, Cleveland broke its three-game losing streak and rebounded from a 136-119 stomping from Atlanta last Friday with a commanding 118-93 victory over the Raptors. However, the Cavs haven't defeated a team with a winning record since their 118-107 win over the Pelicans in New Orleans on Feb. 10. A win over a mostly healthy Celtics squad tonight will remind everyone in the Association that Cleveland deserves to remain among the short list of NBA Finals contenders. 

Can the Celtics finally figure out how to beat Donovan Mitchell and the twin tower duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley? Or will the Cavaliers continue their reign of terror over Boston and move to 3-0 against the Eastern Conference powerhouse? Below, we'll break down this prime-time contest while giving our prediction and best bets for what should be another unforgettable marquee NBA game.

Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds, picks, predictions

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

  • Spread: Boston -4.5 (-115) | Cleveland +4.5 (-105)
  • Total: Over 218.5 (-115) | Under 218.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Boston -200 | Cleveland +160
It's easy to see why oddsmakers give the Celtics so much respect, listing them as -4.5 favorites despite their issues with Cleveland this season. Boston is tied with Milwaukee and Denver for the most wins this season, and the C's are the only team in the NBA that ranks in the top four in both offensive and defensive rating. Not surprisingly, their net rating of 5.8 leads the NBA, with Cleveland ironically hot on their tails with a 5.5 rating. 
 
Home court obviously plays a big part in BetMGM's line here, as Boston has gone 2Garden and 18-13 at home against the spread. The Celtics are also 23-17 against Eastern Conference teams and have that exact same record when they have one day of rest. Cleveland's 3-9 record as a road underdog ranks as the second-worst in the NBA, with only the Grizzlies maintaining a worse cover rate as away 'dogs. (1-8). 
 
Of course, we must not forget that the Cavs mounted a comeback win in Boston back in October, prevailing 132-123 thanks to the heroics of Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert as well as some dominant interior play by Cleveland's bigs. Of course, a lot has changed since late October. 

The most notable difference: All-Defensive center Robert Williams III is back in the middle for the Green. RW3 provides immeasurable rim protection and rebounding help, two aspects of the game that Boston struggled with mightily against bigger teams like Cleveland while Williams was rehabbing his knee. The combination of Williams and veteran big Al Horford gives the C's a much-needed size combination down low to combat the Cavs' one-two punch of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
 
The Celtics also have much better chemistry in the second half of the season than they did earlier in the year. Joe Mazzulla has been rightfully stripped of "interim" status and now serves as the deserved head coach for a team that respects him. Top to bottom, every player knows their role within this system.
 
Joe Mazzulla Malcolm Brogdon
Getty Images
 
Malcolm Brogdon, who has been good all season, has raced out to a lead in the Sixth Man of the Year race. Jayson Tatum has been among the favorites in the MVP race from the jump. Derrick White might be enjoying his finest season as a pro, and even trade deadline acquisition Mike Muscala has turned back the hands of time and looked lethal in key moments. 
 
But Cleveland won't be a pushover by any means. J.B. Bickerstaff's squad ranks No. 1 in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing just 106.5 points per game. The Cavs also rank top three in the Association in field goals, three-pointers, rebounds, and assists allowed. They also rank fifth in the league in field goal percentage (48.8) and sit among the top 10 in turnovers and fouls committed. 
 
Such a battle of defensive powerhouses got the attention of oddsmakers with the projection of 218.5 total points, but it's important to note that (a) both of these squads have averaged exactly 115.3 points over their past three games, (b) Cleveland has surrendered 115.5 points per game over its past four, and (c) Boston has surrendered 115.8 points per game over its past four. With NBA scoring up in general since the All-Star break — and both these squads rested — we will be betting the Celtics' moneyline and smashing the OVER in this one.

Best Bet: Celtics -200 and OVER 218.5

Best player prop bet for Celtics vs. Cavaliers: Al Horford OVER 8.5 points (+105)

Al Horford Boston Celtics
(NBA Entertainment)

Horford might be one of the more boring Celtics to bet on in the player prop market, but plus odds with a very doable scoring total easily make him one of the best bets this evening. The veteran big man always steps up in the home stretch of the season and playoffs, and we expect no less tonight in a big rivalry game against the only squad Boston has not bested this season. With Robert Williams back in the middle, Horford will have more freedom to roam away from the interior, and better spacing to find openings from the three-point line when Tatum, Brown, and the guards drive and kick. Big Al has logged 11-plus points in four of Boston's past five games, and he's dropped 13 and 15 in the past two. Bet on the big man and root for some hard-earned points. 

Sloan Piva

Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer for The Sporting News, primarily focused on betting, fantasy sports, and poker. A lifelong New Englander, Sloan earned his BA and MA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts and now lives in coastal Rhode Island with his wife and two kids.