Tipping off the second day of the NBA Play-In Tournament, the No. 9-seeded Raptors host the No. 10-seeded Bulls at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto (7:00 p.m. ET. ESPN). The winner will go on to face the loser of Tuesday night's Heat-Hawks Play-In game, which will ultimately decide which team will assume the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. The loser of this game will be eliminated from playoff contention. We have all the BetMGM odds, stats, trends, and predictions to get you ready to bet this Eastern Conference showdown between Toronto and Chicago.
Both of these squads battled to close out the season, winning six of their last 10 regular-season games. The Raptors (41-41) won three of their past five tilts, but a pair of late-season losses to Boston kept them from leapfrogging Atlanta for the No. 8 seed. Chicago (40-42) won four of its past six — including big wins over Memphis and Dallas — but enters the wild-card tourney as the only Eastern Conference squad of the four with a record below .500.
MORE RAPTORS-BULLS: Best under-the-radar player props
What a difference a year makes! In 2022, the Raptors finished the regular season with the fifth-best record in the East (48-34) while Chicago finished sixth (46-36). Now these teams will have to scratch and claw for the right to the eighth seed, with a road series against the top-seeded Bucks as the prize for winning two play-in games.
Let's take a look at the odds, review some stats and trends, and determine which team in the Raptors-Bulls play-in opener will advance.
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Raptors vs. Bulls odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Raptors -5.5 (-105) | Bulls +5.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 214.5 (-120) | Under 214.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Raptors -210 | Bulls +170
Oddsmakers clearly like the Raptors here, which comes as no surprise as Toronto went 27-14 at home this season while Chicago was just 18-23 on the road. The Raptors actually finished the regular-season campaign with the third-best home cover rate in the NBA — 25-15-1, or 62.5 percent. Nick Nurse's squad also won the season series with the Bulls 2-1.
Led by top scorer Pascal Siakam and star point guard Fred VanVleet, Toronto has caught fire at just the right time. Since Jan. 8, the Raps have gone 16-4 straight up and 15-4-1 ATS. Much of that success has to do with Masai Ujiri and Bobby Webster bringing former center Jakob Poeltl back up north in a trade-deadline deal with San Antonio. Poeltl has been a force down low, checking a box that Toronto had been missing for quite some time.
But Chicago can be feisty, especially when Zach LaVine locks in from three-point land and former Raptor and veteran mid-range assassin DeMar DeRozan turns on his clutch switch. If Nikola Vucevic wins the battle with Poeltl down low – and Billy Donovan can get a good offensive showing out of a couple of complementary pieces like Patrick Beverley, Patrick Williams, Coby White, or Ayo Dosunmo -- this one could get very interesting.
The last time these squads met on Feb. 28, Toronto prevailed 104-98, thanks in large part to the Raptors collecting 19 offensive rebounds and Chicago committing 19 turnovers. The Bulls will likely be all over the film from that game going into the Play-In Tournament, hammering home the importance of crashing the boards and taking care of the ball. One thing is for sure: They won't be taking these Raptors lightly.
When Chicago has been listed as a road underdog of five points or greater this season, its record ATS has been 10-5. Even better, the Bulls have straight up won three of their past four games in which they were road 'dogs of five-to-nine points. The Nuggets, 76ers, and Lakers were three of the squads Chicago recently slayed on the road, but as good as those teams are, they don't have perimeter defenders like O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam.
We don't have the guts to bet Chicago to win this one straight up, but we will absolutely back the Bulls with the points. To be sure, we might just buy them two points and make it +7.5 at -150. We don't love the over/under of 214.5 — we're projecting right around 210-215 points — but it feels far too close to call the total one way or the other. Bet Toronto to advance or Chicago to cover, and move on to the next game like the Raptors most likely will.
Prediction: Raptors 109, Bulls 104. The Bulls (+5.5) cover the spread, with the game just barely going UNDER the total (214.5). We would buy the Bulls two points (+7.5) at -150 and either stay away from the over/under or go with an alternate spread like UNDER 218.5 (-160).
Raptors vs. Bulls best player prop bet: DeMar DeRozan UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-110)
When people think DeRozan, they think clutch, and when they think DeRozan in Toronto, they think revenge game and homecoming and all that fun stuff. But when you actually look at the stats and trends, you realize he's a poor bet to go OVER 27.5 points + assists. Over Chicago's three games against the Raptors this season, the veteran point forward has averaged 14 points and 3.6 assists per game. He also went UNDER 27.5 points + assists in his last three regular-season games and in four of Chicago's five playoff games last season. Go the contrarian route and bet DD to have another pedestrian game against one of the better perimeter defensive teams.
