In the second game of Tuesday's NBA Play-In Tournament doubleheader, the seventh-seeded Lakers (-7.5) face off against the eighth-seeded Timberwolves inside Crypto.com Arena (10:00 p.m. ET, TNT). Los Angeles looks to take advantage of a depleted Minnesota frontcourt that will be without the services of Naz Reid (wrist), Rudy Gobert (suspension), and Jaden McDaniels (hand), putting Chris Finch's crew in an uphill battle to return to the playoffs.
Despite losing the first two regular-season matchups against Minnesota, the Lakers ended their regular-season series on a high note, securing a 123-111 road victory on March 31. Take their head-to-head record with a grain of salt, though, as Laker superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis only played together once, in their most recent meeting.
Los Angeles returns to the postseason after a one-year absence while Minnesota's back in the Play-In Tournament for a second consecutive season. After entering the 2022 postseason as the seventh-seed, the Timberwolves took care of the eighth-seeded Clippers in their lone Play-In game, notching a 109-104 victory. The Timberwolves would then give the seventh-seeded Grizzlies all they could handle in the first round but got bounced in six games.
Who will lock up a spot in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs? Below, we'll break down Tuesday night's Lakers-Timberwolves matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the NBA Play-In Tournament.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Lakers -7.5 (-110); Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 231.5 (-110); UNDER 231.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lakers -300; Timberwolves +230
With the Timberwolves down three key frontcourt pieces, the Lakers currently sit as hefty 7.5-point favorites on the spread with a moneyline price of -300 (implied win probability: 75 percent). Los Angeles closed as favorites in only one of three regular-season meetings, its 123-111 road win on March 31 (-1.5), which was the lone game in which LeBron James and Anthony Davis played together.
The betting market's already taken into account the losses of Naz Reid, Rudy Gobert, and Jaden McDaniels, so there's not much of an edge betting the Lakers as this hefty of favorites unless you feel they should be priced closer to a double-digit favorite.
Los Angeles is clearly on an upward trajectory since retooling its roster at the trade deadline, going 18-9 since Feb. 9. Adding D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt (who, coincidentally, were all with Minnesota last season), has given Darvin Ham a well-rounded roster capable of doing damage this postseason. If the Lakers can get past the Timberwolves, they'll be a tough out for the second-seeded Grizzlies.
L.A. still can't overlook Minnesota, as anything's possible in the Association. Even though the Timberwolves were the victim of one the biggest upsets in NBA history, losing outright as 19.5-point home favorites to the Trail Blazers on April 2, we've seen plenty of teams given "no chance" prove doubters wrong en route to upset wins.
That being said, this matchup feels one-sided, as the Lakers' ability to dominate on the boards against a depleted Timberwolves frontcourt should result in a comfortable victory. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns would have to go nuclear for Minnesota to pull off the upset, and while they're capable of shouldering a massive scoring load, it seems unlikely against a surging Lakers squad.
Prediction: Lakers 119, Timberwolves 111. The Lakers (-7.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (231.5)
Best player prop bet for Lakers vs. Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 10.5 rebounds (-120)
While Towns averages just 8.1 rebounds per game, he'll be tasked with keeping the Lakers' frontcourt in check sans Reid and Gobert. Towns is likely to play close to 40 minutes on Tuesday night, giving him ample opportunity to grab 11-plus rebounds. This season, his defensive rebound rate is well below his typical season averages (21.6 percent), but when healthy, he's played a lot more on the perimeter to help space the floor when logging minutes alongside Reid and Gobert. That clearly won't be the case on Tuesday, which will hopefully lead to Towns grabbing defensive rebounds at a significantly higher clip.
