The NBA has provided a plethora of insanely entertaining games since returning from the All-Star break, and the home stretch of the regular season leading into the playoffs promises to be even better. This evening should be no exception, with Klay Thompson and the Warriors hosting Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and the Clippers to close out a four-game Thursday slate (10 p.m. ET, TNT). Let's discuss the betting odds, trends, best bets, and top player prop for this Western Conference showdown of NBA Finals contenders.
Every game takes on more importance from here on out, especially in the parity-filled West. Despite Steph Curry missing Golden State's past nine games with a leg injury, the Warriors (32-30) have rallied to win three in a row and virtually tie the Clippers (33-31) for the five seed. A whopping six teams sit within three games back of Golden State and L.A.
The Western Conference is crazy right now. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/FUPpO9tLWs
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 1, 2023
Steve Kerr and Ty Lue's squads have met twice so far this season, splitting the series with one home win each, and this evening marks their third of four regular-season tilts. The Warriors, tied for the fifth-best home record at 25-7, will look to keep up their modest winning streak and make it seven wins in 11 games. The Clippers, who have lost all three games since signing Russell Westbrook in the buyout market, look to turn things around and restore some order, primarily in crunch time.
Who will prevail in this battle of veteran title contenders? Let's dive into the betting odds for this California classic, uncover some trends, and make our best bets and predictions.
Warriors vs. Clippers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Clippers -3.5 (-110) | Warriors +3.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Clippers -165 | Warriors +135
The Clippers always have the respect of oddsmakers, at least as long as Kawhi and PG13 are healthy. This line surprised us, though, even with Curry sidelined with a leg injury. The squad that has lost three straight games, has an 11-25 record against teams over .500, and has the sixth-worst defensive rating over the past two weeks is listed as -3.5 road favorites? Are the Warriors, who have won three in a row, six of their past 10, and own a 25-7 record at Chase Center, really expected to lose?
The main catalyst to this surprising line is likely Leonard, who has been on a serious heater of late. In February, the Claw averaged maintaining shooting splits of 49.1/53.2/92.3. He recorded just 14 turnovers across 341 minutes, which averages out to fewer than 1.5 giveaways per 36 minutes. That's absurd for a guy with a 26.8 usage rate for the month. He's as all-in as he's been as a Clipper, putting in huge minutes in two recent overtime games, including 46:02 in the barnburner 176-175 double-OT loss to Sacramento.
Most PPG by a player since the All-Star Break:
— NBA Muse (@NBAMuse24) March 2, 2023
45.7 — Damian Lillard
35.3 — De'Aaron Fox
33.3 — Kawhi Leonard pic.twitter.com/EeojicKcUj
George has been great, too, at least in terms of volume, but in terms of efficiency, he's been a bit off. The eight-time All-Star has shot better than 50 percent in a game just once since Jan. 27, and he's turned the ball over 14 times over L.A.'s past four games. These inconsistencies have caused him to appear more passive with the ball late in games — usually his time to shine — often passing out of single-coverage defense to players with inferior scoring ability like Westbrook and Terance Mann.
Lue can live without George taking shots late in the game. What Los Angeles cannot afford, however, is for Leonard to take zero shots in the remaining 5:49 of games, exactly what happened in the loss to the Timberwolves on Tuesday. It became the Westbrook show: multiple late-game turnovers, a forced and contested fallaway brick in the lane, and a "no no no — okay" three-pointer. All said, the Clips committed 24 turnovers — just days after committing 25 against the Kings and only a couple of months after their league-leading 27 turnovers against the Hornets in late December.
This stretch reminded me of when I coached my little sister's 7th grade basketball team. So many head-shakes in an 18-second span.
— Sloan Piva (@SloanPiva) March 1, 2023
The Clippers lost to the Wolves in LA. They have the 3rd-worst home record in the West. Let's stop acting like Ty Lue is the best coach in the NBA. pic.twitter.com/8QmxdOdLsJ
Oddsmakers may trust a squad that features Leonard, George, and numerous other veteran scorers and defenders -- Norm Powell remains one of the better bench scorers in the NBA, and Nic Batum has been scorching from the outside corner this calendar year -- but against a disciplined and very well-coached Warriors squad, 3.5 points on the road seems like a bit more trust than we'd give L.A.
Golden State, meanwhile, knows its own identity and understands its core rotational roles. Jordan Poole can get blazing hot in a flash, and Klay Thompson — who led the NBA in made threes in February — remains one of the more dominating pure shooters in the NBA. Kevon Looney has stepped up in a major way on the interior since Andrew Wiggins' extended leave for personal reasons, pounding the glass and protecting the rim as well as he ever has in his eight-year career. Jonathan Kuminga has clearly learned from Draymond Green how to play NBA defense, and Donte DiVincenzo has filled in admirably for Curry, dropping in 21 points in each of the Dubs' past two wins.
No limits pic.twitter.com/ow0oxS8P96
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 2, 2023
The Warriors remain the best passing and three-point shooting team in the NBA, bad news for a Clippers team that ranks among the bottom 10 in defensive rating over the past two weeks and allows road opponents to shoot 38.2 percent from distance. This is probably the last team Lue wants to visit during the Clippers' biggest funk of the season, as you can't commit unforced errors and force contested shots in crunch time against Kerr's squad. We understand the respect for Kawhi, but focused and organized veteran teams typically win at home during the playoff race. We'll take the Dubs and the points.
Best Bet: Warriors +3.5 (-110)
Warriors vs. Clippers: Best player prop bets
Paul George OVER 26.5 points + assists (-120)
While Westbrook will continue to command more point guard usage, George remains the central catalyst of Lue's offense for a great deal of each game. The six-time All-NBA selection will need to be assertive tonight for L.A. to snap out of this losing streak. PG13 has averaged 23.5 points and 5.2 assists per game this season, 2.2 over the mark we need to best for this prop to cash. Just look at his past four games:
| Opp | Pts | Ast | Total |
| @PHO | 26 | 5 | 31 |
| SAC | 34 | 5 | 39 |
| @DEN | 23 | 4 | 27 |
| MIN | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| AVG: | 27 | 4.3 | 31.3 |
These recent averages blow our points + assists target out of the water even before any increase in George's usage, so we're confident to list this as the best bet among player props this evening.
Russell Westbrook OVER 3.5 turnovers (-185)
Westbrook has committed 13 turnovers in three games as a Clipper, and he has logged four turnovers in 30 of his 55 games in the 2022-23 season. His vision and passing have regressed over the years, yet NBA coaches continue to make the confounding decision to trust him with the ball in his hands late in games. That feeds right into the hands of the Warriors, who logged the sixth-best clutch-time defensive rating in the NBA in February (89.8). It's way too early for the point guard-desperate Clippers to give up on their shiny new ego-driven toy, so don't expect a Westbrook benching anytime soon. Ignore the juice — this is a layup.
Jonathan Kuminga OVER 0.5 steals + blocks (-210)
Again, the juice is worth the squeeze. Kuminga has been very active in Andrew Wiggins' absence, recording a steal or block in each of Golden State's past three games and six of their past eight. The Warriors must establish physicality over strong offenses, and the athletic 6-8, 210-pound Kuminga has plenty of physicality to offer. The Clippers committed 24 turnovers their last time out and have averaged 21 giveaways over their past three. Kuminga will grab at least one "stock" this evening.
Warriors vs. Clippers: DFS lineups
Lineup assembled in DraftKings Showdown Mode. Six spots, $50,000 limit.
| Position | Player | FPPG | Salary |
| Captain (1.5x FPTS) | Kawhi Leonard (LA) | 40.7 | $14,100 |
| Utility | Paul George (LA) | 42.7 | $8,800 |
| Utility | Klay Thompson (GS) | 34.0 | $8,000 |
| Utility | Draymond Green (GS) | 30.6 | $6,800 |
| Utility | Ivica Zubac (LA) | 27.6 | $6,200 |
| Utility | Donte DiVincenzo (GS) | 23.0 | $6,000 |
The decision to captain Leonard was an easy one — he's averaging 50.6 DK points over the past 10 days and seems as motivated as anyone to get Los Angeles out of this late-season slide. We can still afford George alongside him as well as three of Golden State's five highest-scoring active players. Zubac, who has scored 32 and 29.75 DK points in L.A.'s past two games, remains a solid value pick at just $6,200.
