As the NBA regular season hurtles toward the finish line, countless teams have been desperately jockeying for playoff positioning. Tonight's marquee NBA matchup, the top-seeded Nuggets vs. the defending-champion Warriors, features a Denver team trying to stay atop the West and a Golden State squad trying to avoid the play-in tournament. We have all the odds, stat and betting trends, and best bets to get you prepared for this pivotal Western Conference clash.
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Since returning from a shoulder injury, reigning NBA Finals MVP Steph Curry has helped propel Golden State to third in the NBA in scoring (118.3 points per game), and a blistering 124.3 ppg over the Dubs' past three games. Steve Kerr's squad ranks first in the Association in pace (101.6), passing (29.6 apg), and — to nobody's surprise — three-point shooting (16.6 per game).
Meanwhile, reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets remain No. 1 in the West but have fallen to tenth in scoring after averaging just 99 points over their past three contests. Mike Malone's squad ranks No. 1 in field goal shooting (50.6%) and No. 2 in three-point shooting (38.4%) and passing (29.1 apg). They also rank top-ten in points allowed and seventh in points surrendered per home game. UPDATE: Jokic has been downgraded from 'questionable' to 'doubtful' due to his calf injury (7:00 p.m. ET).
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But both of these teams have glaring Achilles heels heading into the postseason. The Warriors have been utterly abysmal on the road all season, having won just nine of their 38 games away from Chase Center, although they did win their last two games at Houston and Dallas. The Nuggets are better away from home (19-19) — but not by much — and Denver's constant question mark remains its ability to execute offensively without Jokic on the floor.
Will Curry, Klay Thompson, and company grab a huge win over the best in the West tonight? Or will the Nuggets hold court once again and improve to 33-7 at Ball Arena on the season? Let's take a look at the odds for this pivotal Western Conference showdown, dive into some analytics, and make our best bets.
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Nuggets vs. Warriors odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Nuggets +2.5 (-105) | Warriors -2.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 230.5 (-110) | Under 230.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets +120 | Warriors -145
Not surprisingly, oddsmakers give the nod to the second-most winningest home team in the NBA behind Memphis (and just ahead of Golden State). Denver's .821 winning percentage at Ball Arena serves as a huge motivating factor for the Nuggets winning this game — Mike Malone obviously wants home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs as the Nugs are just .500 on the road this season.
Denver has also been dominant at home against the spread. The Nuggets' 23-15-1 home cover rate (60.%) ranks fifth-best in the Association, whereas the Warriors' horrendous 9-28 road cover rate (24.3%) easily serves as the worst. In fact, the only other team with worse than a 35 percent road cover rate are the 19-58 Spurs, who have covered just 12 of 38 games (31.6%).
If you're thinking about betting the total, be forewarned. Denver typically holds opponents to 110 points or lower, while points flow easily in Golden State's games. Jokic and the Nuggets are content to slow the pace down and play their style of half-court hoops, spreading the ball around and finding open shots. Golden State pushes the tempo, scores a ton of fast-break points, and thrives when shooters like Curry, Thompson, and Jordan Poole explode out of back-screens to their spots outside the three-point line.
Warriors games have gone OVER 56 percent of the time this season (42-33-3), while Denver games have gone UNDER 52.6 percent of the time (40-36-1). Both teams shoot very well from outside the arc, but Denver also defends the three well. Golden State, however, has struggled defending the triple. Opponents have shot 36.7 percent from three-point land against the Dubs, 40.7 percent when Golden State is on the road, and 41.8 percent over the past three games.
The biggest thing the Nuggets have going for them: they possess the best overall weapon in the NBA in Jokic, a 7-footer averaging a triple-double and shooting 64 percent from the floor. The Warriors do not have anyone down low who can stop him when he wants to score or slow him down when he creates for others. That's why Golden State has fallen to Denver both times they have met so far this season, 128-123 in Golden State back in October and 134-117 in Denver in early February. But with Jokic now doubtful to play, we find Denver's chances to beat the defending champions equally doubtful.
If Jokic indeed sits tonight like he did against New Orleans and Phoenix on Thursday and Friday, the Nuggets might as well crown Joel Embiid the MVP themselves. A recent ESPN straw poll showed the Sixers superstar winning 790-788 — a paper-thin margin — and the closer Jokic comes to Embiid's game total (right now it's Joker 67-63 over JoJo), the closer Embiid likely comes to finally winning his first.
The Nuggets also don't have massive room for error — with just five games left, they have started losing at the wrong time and still draw tough matchups with the Warriors tonight, the Suns, the Jazz, and the Kings. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have won eight of their past 10 games and have easier contests against the Bulls, Blazers, Pelicans, and Thunder among their five remaining games. We had Jokic playing, Denver covering, and the MVP race tightening up once again to make it a thrilling finish for the history books — but now that Jokic is doubtful, we have the Warriors prevailing and covering and Joker losing the MVP race.
Best Bets: Warriors -2.5
Nuggets vs. Warriors best player prop bet: Jamal Murray OVER 28.5 points + assists (-120)
Whether Jokic plays or not, Murray will need to step up for the Nuggets to prevail over the defending champs. When Denver beat Golden State in early February, Murray put up 33 points, eight assists, and five rebounds while shooting 12-of-23 from the floor (52.2%). He has averaged 29.6 points + assists over Denver's past three games, and just over 28.5 in the calendar year of 2023. With Jokic out or less than 100 percent, Malone will call upon his point guard to operate the offense and handle more playmaking duties. The Nuggets can't expect to win — tonight or in the playoffs — if they continue to rely too much on their MVP.
