The Bulls and Hawks will face off in a single-elimination battle on Friday night (7:00 p.m., TNT) to wrap up the final round of the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament. The winner will be the eighth seed in the East and get an opportunity to face the top-seeded Bucks in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Let's go over the BetMGM odds for Heat-Bulls matchup and get you ready to bet on this pivotal Eastern Conference showdown.
Chicago rallied to beat the Raptors in Toronto on Wednesday, winning the fourth quarter 37-24 and eking out a 109-105 win. Billy Donovan's squad must like their chances entering Friday after sweeping Miami 3-0 during the regular season, but the Heat at home are always a tough out. Despite dropping the first Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament game at home 116-105 to Atlanta, Jimmy Butler and company went 27-14 at Kaseya Center this season.
Both of these squads rallied to win six of their last 10 regular-season games, but only one can prevail in this winner-takes-all battle for the final playoff spot in the East. Will Miami hold court and knock off Butler's old team, or will the feisty Bulls wrestle their way into the playoffs via the improbable road of the two-win play-in?
Let's take a look at the BetMGM odds, review some stats and trends, and determine which team in the Heat-Bulls play-in opener will advance.
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Heat vs. Bulls odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat -5.5 (-110) | Bulls +5.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 208.5 (-110) | Under 208.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat -225 | Raptors +180
The Heat enter Friday night's tilt as considerable home favorites over the Bulls. Just last season, Miami finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA at 53-29. While Erik Spoelstra's squad enjoyed similar success to last season at home, the Heat's woeful 17-24 record on the road this season kept them from a top-six playoff lock.
Considering the Heat's home-court advantage — and the Bulls' 18-23 record away from United Center — it's easy to see why BetMGM likes Miami here. Add in the fact that Spoelstra's crew has enjoyed an extra day of rest after not having played since Tuesday, and we can lock the Heat in as our predicted winner.
What about that pesky spread? While Miami went 25-12 straight up as home favorites this season, the Heat were just 11-24-2 ATS as home faves. That's the second-worst home favorite cover rate in the NBA for the season. Then you have the Bulls, who went 16-12-1 ATS as road underdogs, creating legitimate cause for skepticism when it comes to Miami covering Friday evening.
Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Nikola Vucevic, who won the interior battle with Raptors big Jakob Poeltl on Wednesday. Big Vooch finished with 14 points and 13 rebounds and helped Chicago edge Toronto 52-40 in points in the paint.
It was LaVine and DeRozan who ultimately brought home that "W." LaVine poured in 39 points — 30 in the second half — to go with six rebounds and three assists, while DeRozan finished with 23 points, seven boards, and three dimes. Chicago also nailed 18-of-22 free throws while Toronto hit just 18-of-36, perhaps due to DeRozan's daughter and her screeching ability.
For the Heat, the big question remains which offensive player will step up to help Butler. Tyler Herro, the NBA's reigning Sixth Man of the Year, dropped 26 points against Atlanta on Tuesday but hasn't enjoyed the same type of game-in, game-out success he did last season and in Miami's past postseason runs. Kyle Lowry turned back the hands of time with 33 points, but before Tuesday, the veteran point guard had not even scored 18 points since the day after Christmas. Adebayo remains a strong bruiser on the boards, but he's underwhelming as a secondary scoring option.
But Butler in the postseason — especially against one of his former teams — always deserves the edge. If we have to bet a moneyline one way or the other, we're taking the Heat -225. Against the spread, we're leaning toward the Bulls +5.5 and contemplating buying them two points just for added insurance. Road 'dogs have been hot in the Play-In Tournament, and the home/road ATS splits for both squads have us pretty confident in Chicago's ability to cover a +7.5 spread.
Prediction: Heat 105, Bulls 101. The Heat (-225) win straight up but the Bulls (+5.5) cover the spread, with the game just barely going UNDER the total (208.5). We would buy the Bulls two points (+7.5) at -140 for extra insurance.
Heat vs. Bulls best player prop bet: DeMar DeRozan OVER 26.5 points + assists (-120)
Butler will more than likely be tasked with covering Zach LaVine and keeping him from flirting with a 40-burger. That leaves mid-range king DeRozan with plenty of opportunities to get to his spots and pour in 15-20-foot jumpers. He's also the unofficial point forward of this Bulls team, so even if the Heat limit his open looks or bring additional defenders over to help with him, he will more than likely find open teammates and create points with his underrated passing ability. Take a look at DeRozan's stats against Miami during the regular season:
| Game (Location), Final Score | Points | Assists | FGs |
| Oct. 19 (@ MIA) — CHI 116-108 | 37 | 9 | 14-22 |
| Dec. 20 (@ MIA) — CHI 113-103 | 24 | 5 | 9-14 |
| Mar. 18 (@ CHI) — CHI 113-109 | 24 | 10 | 10-15 |
| Averages (CHI won season series 3-0) | 28.3 | 8.0 | 11-17 |
Yeah, we like the look of that. DeRozan gets wherever he wants against even the most elite perimeter defensive teams in the NBA, and he's as clutch as they come. We would pound the OVER on 26.5 points + assists.
Heat vs. Bulls best team and game props
Bulls +0.5 (+140) in the first half
The Bulls got off to strong starts against Miami in each of their three regular-season contests this season, and the Heat looked abysmal in the first quarter against the Hawks on Tuesday. While we expect this game to be close, we love the value we are getting with Chicago in the first half here. Even if it's tied at the break, we get a plus-odds payout!
First-half total UNDER 102.5 points (-125)
Miami has averaged 51 points per first half over its past three games, while Chicago has averaged 50. Everyone always wants to bet the OVER on full-game totals, but there's plenty of under-the-radar value like this first-half UNDER just waiting to be scooped up by a savvy sharp. Go the path less traveled and make that money!
