The inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament has reached the penultimate round in Las Vegas, with two games this evening determining the championship matchup for the first-ever NBA Cup. The second half of tonight's semifinals doubleheader pits LeBron James and the Lakers against Zion Williamson and the Pelicans (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN). This should be an instant classic, and we can't wait to share our best bets and top props for this Western Conference semifinal clash.
The Lakers barely squeaked by the Suns in the knockout round on Tuesday, aided by an unfathomably bad loose-ball timeout after Kevin Durant and Devin Booker doubled Austin Reaves with L.A. down two and mere seconds remaining. That call was a black eye on an otherwise beautiful game, with Bron, Reaves, and Anthony Davis combining for 78 points. The Lakers look focused and extremely motivated to win the NBA Cup, which would only add to LeBron's legacy of greatness.
New Orleans won't be an easy out, though. Willie Green's squad has finally achieved full health, just in time for Zion to play the first real meaningful games of his NBA career. The Pels have quietly become the deepest team in the league, which could be troublesome for L.A.'s old and top-heavy rotation.
Will Davis help get the Lakers past his former team, or will Brandon Ingram enact a revenge game on L.A. with the help of Zion, C.J. McCollum, and Big Jonas Valaciunas? This one seems like must-see hoops, and we've also identified a plethora of solid betting value. Let's dive into the Lakers-Pelicans' semifinals clash, and hopefully make you some In-Season Tournament cash!
NBA In-Season Tournament best bets: Lakers vs. Pelicans
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized partner of the NBA. Click here to sign up!
- Spread: Lakers -1.5 (-110) | Pelicans +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lakers -125 | Pelicans +105
- Over/Under: O 230.5 (-115) | U 230.5 (-105)
Big surprise — the books are backing Bron. The King has been dominant this season, he's playing more often and for longer stretches than usual, and he's shooting almost 55 percent from the floor and 39 percent from distance. AD has also been lethal around the basket, averaging 23 points, 12.6 rebounds (second-most in the NBA), and 2.8 blocks (first). Austin Reaves has also been as dependable a bench player and late-game closer as anyone in the league.
Still, New Orleans getting just 1.5 points in a neutral-court setting an hour from L.A. tells you just how strong the Pelicans have been. This team has it all: three microwave scorers averaging 20-plus points per game in Ingram, Zion, and McCollum, three three-point marksmen in McCollum, Trey Murphy, and Jordan Hawkins, dominant perimeter defenders in Herbert Jones, Dyson Daniels, and Jose Alvarado, and the ever-reliable big man Jonas Valanciunas.
The majority of the betting world will be betting on LeBron and the Lakers — close to 70 percent of the BetMGM moneyline handle is on L.A. — but we're going full contrarian and preparing for the Pels to shock the world. How good is the Zion over Bron storyline? We're all-in on a straight-up upset since NOLA's getting +105 on the ML.
The Pelicans have been vastly better than their 12-10 record suggests, and they're even better now that McCollum, Murphy, and Jones are all healthy. They have gone 13-8-1 against the spread and 9-3-1 ATS as underdogs this season. Even better, they are 4-2-1 ATS as away underdogs and 4-3 straight up as road 'dogs (and this isn't even a road game!) This is a neutral venue, pitting a deep squad with interior strength against a shallow squad with limited size/strength beyond AD.
The way to beat L.A. tonight is through pace and physicality. Expect Zion and Valanciunas to make things difficult for LeBron and AD near the hoop on one end, and force AD to stay busy on the other end. New Orleans has made the sixth-most two-point field goals in the Association while shooting 48.1 percent from the floor (seventh-best). The Pels also take 25.5 free throws per game and make nearly 20 of them, so it's quite possible AD gets into foul trouble. L.A. will probably also struggle to contain NOLA on the offensive and defensive glass.
LeBron and AD have been phenomenal this season, there's no doubt about that. We just worry that the Pels might have too much firepower for them to keep up with limited contributions from their supporting cast. Rui Hachimura is still rusty since his nasal fracture and procedure. Taurean Prince and Cam Reddish have been decent defensively but inconsistent on offense. D'Angelo Russell is shooting 38.2 percent from the floor over L.A.'s past three games.
The Lakers have gone 4-7 away from the Crypto.com Arena this season, and they have dropped two of their past three road contests (and by a combined 68 points!). This may not be the most popular pick among bettors, but since when was that a big indicator of success or failure? Take the Pelicans to pull off the big upset in Vegas, causing all the sportsbooks in Vegas to laugh all the way to the bank ahead of Saturday's NBA Cup.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Pelicans 121, Lakers 117 — The Pelicans pull off the upset (+1.5, +105), winning straight up and punching their ticket to the NBA In-Season Tournament Championship. The game easily hits the OVER (230.5), with 77 percent of tickets and 89 percent of the handle on the UNDER. It will be an all-out windfall for sportsbooks in Sin City.
Among the props we like the most, take Brandon Ingram OVER 23.5 points (-125) in a "revenge game." BI has too much length and quickness off the dribble for Cam Reddish or Taurean Prince to contain him when he gets to his spots in the midrange. As much as we love how well Zion's game has evolved this season, Ingram remains the offensive pulse of this team.
We also like LeBron James OVER 7.5 assists (+100), as the King will be trying to get "the others" involved early and often. We don't think he will be interested in banging down low all game with the big bodies of Zion and Valanciunas. NOLA also defends the three-ball well, so we contemplate betting LBJ's UNDER of 28.5 points (-105).
Lastly, we think Herb Jones OVER 4.5 rebounds (+120) might be worth your while. Jones has hops to go with a 7-foot wingspan, and we think the wiry forward will benefit from AD, JV, Zion, Christian Wood, and others tussling down low. Herb has 12 boards over NOLA's past two games, so OVER 4.5 seems like a sneaky-good play to put the cherry on top of our best bets sundae.
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