The Nuggets sit one win away from notching their first-ever trip to the NBA Finals, getting a chance to end the Lakers' season in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). After closing as 5.5-point road underdogs in Game 3, the Nuggets started fast and finished strong en route to a 119-108 "upset" win, improving to 15-8 against the spread as underdogs during their historic season.
In what was truly a "must-win" game for Los Angeles down 0-2, the Lakers found themselves in an early 14-point first-quarter hole (30-16), with Game 2 hero Jamal Murray picking up right where he left off on Thursday night. Murray continued to showcase his three-level scoring prowess, dropping 17 first-quarter points on eight-of-10 shooting. He eventually ended the first half with a 30-piece on 13-of-20 shooting, but the Lakers found a way to cut into the Nuggets' double-digit lead, trailing by only three at the break (58-55).
The third quarter was nearly played to a stalemate with the Lakers outscoring the Nuggets 27-26, but in crunch time, the top-seeded Nuggets executed their offense to a tee. Denver ended the fourth quarter plus-nine (35-26) despite Los Angeles taking two one-point leads early in the fourth, courtesy of Rui Hachimura once again providing a spark off the bench (13 points, five-of-12 shooting). For the most part, L.A. did their job in containing Nikola Jokic, but the two-time MVP scored 15 of his 24 points when it mattered most in the fourth. Jokic later sank the dagger three to push Denver's lead to 111-101 with 3:17 left, all but ending the Lakers' hopes of making this best-of-seven a competitive series.
Yes, no team has ever rallied to win a series trailing 3-0 -- and Denver's hefty odds to advance past Los Angeles (-3000) imply how tall of a feat it will be for LeBron and company to do just that -- but the Lakers (-3.5) can certainly defend home court in Game 4, sending this best-of-seven back to Denver. The betting market still respects L.A. enough to list them as 3.5-point home favorites in Game 4 even after adjusting the spread two points following Game 3's result.
Can the Lakers avoid the sweep, or will the Nuggets get a nine-day break before playing in their first-ever NBA Finals? Below, we'll break down Monday night's Lakers-Nuggets matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 4 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Lakers -3.5 (-105); Nuggets +3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 224.5 (-105); UNDER 224.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Lakers -155; Nuggets +125
As we mentioned, with Los Angeles failing to win outright as 5.5-point favorites in Game 3, their Game 4 spread has adjusted two points, down to -3.5. Bettors at BetMGM don't seem to have faith in LeBron and company to salvage a win, with 86 percent of bets coming in on the Nuggets moneyline (+135). Going the blind contrarian route is one thing, but having a valid reason for "fading the public" is another. Call me crazy, but I believe the Lakers would have won Game 3 had James connected on a top of the key three to extend the Lakers' lead to four with 10:21 in the fourth.
James was shooting an ice-cold 23.3 percent from three this postseason, but he did sink three-of-nine shots from distance in Game 3 to give the Lakers a glimmer of hope. Instead, James' missed three led to a transition opportunity for Denver, one where Nikola Jokic scored an easy basket to give Denver a one-point lead. A four-point lead with 10-plus minutes in an NBA game is peanuts, but given the magnitude of L.A.'s fight from the second quarter on, that shot could have completely changed the trajectory of the game and series. In playoff games featuring two relatively evenly matched teams, it truly becomes a "make or miss league" and Denver's personnel is better equipped to get buckets. However, in a one-game sample, variance can impact the final result.
The Nuggets are undoubtedly the stronger group and are well on their way to the NBA Finals, but assuming the Lakers haven't packed it in, there's reason to believe L.A. can extend this series. It will take a better first quarter, which would likely entail Darvin Ham inserting Rui Hachimura into the starting five in place of the struggling D'Angelo Russell, giving the Lakers more defensive versatility but at the same time a more potent offense. While Murray's shot-making abilities have given the Lakers headaches all series, Dennis Schroder did a sound job of keeping Murray in check in the second half. Murray finished Game 3 with just 37 points after a 30-piece in the first 24 minutes.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see an off-shooting night from Denver's Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, two starters who sank practically every big three in Game 3 to halt the Lakers' momentum, giving the Lakers an increased chance to capitalize and build a lead. If Murray's held in check just a bit, it could be enough to give the Lakers an edge. L.A. had no counter to Jokic initiating the offense with Murray as his primary screener in the fourth, but with time to dissect the game film and potentially overplay to the strong side to force players other than Jokic and Murray to beat them, L.A. might be able to get enough stops to combat that action.
The moneyline's already baking in a 60.78-percent win probability for the Lakers, but we'd still side with Los Angeles to win the crucial 50/50 balls and sink the clutch shots to give their home crowd something to get excited about.
Prediction: Lakers 112, Nuggets 108. The Lakers (-3.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (224.5)
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Best player prop bet for Lakers vs. Nuggets: Rui Hachimura OVER 13.5 points (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Hachimura's seen a minutes increase each game this series, most recently logging 34 minutes in Game 3. Despite seeing an increase in minutes in Game 3, Hachimura scored only 13 points on five-of-12 shooting. It was his least efficient shooting night this series, but he's done a fine job of playing within the confines of the offense by either getting to lane or settling for mid-range jumpers when Jokic sags off him. Even if Darvin Ham doesn't insert Hach into the starting five, expect another 30-plus minute night from the forward that should lead him to hoisting 10-plus shots from the field. Bake in a handful of free throw attempts for someone who's averaging 2.4 free throw attempts the past two weeks, and there's a chance he eclipses his point total with a 14-plus point showing.
