The fifth-seeded Knicks will look to steal homecourt advantage away from the eighth-seeded Heat today in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). After losing Game 1 at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks picked up a hard-fought 111-105 win over the Heat on Tuesday night.
The Knicks got a tremendous performance from the duo of Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson, who combined for 55 points and shot a healthy 9-of-19 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Randle gave the Knicks' offense an extra boost in Game 2 as he missed Game 1 due to sprained ankle. The veteran power forward outplayed Heat big man Bam Adebayo (15 points and six rebounds), dropping 25 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. If New York wants to win Game 3, let alone this second-round series, they need Randle to play at a high level and be the secondary scoring option.
Meanwhile, the Heat were without star guard Jimmy Butler, who is nursing a right ankle sprain he suffered in Game 1. Without Butler on the floor, Miami received solid performances from Caleb Martin (22 points) and Gabe Vincent (21 points). Overall, the Heat had four players in double figures and made it a game late, but it was too much Brunson in the end.
Can the Knicks pick up where they left off in Game 2, or will the Heat win their third-straight game at home this postseason? Below, we'll break down tonight's Grizzlies-Lakers matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Knicks vs. Heat odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Knicks +3.5; Heat -3.5
- Over/Under: OVER 208.5; UNDER 208.5
- Moneyline: Knicks +150; Heat -185
The Heat are surprisingly 3.5-point home favorites heading into today's contest despite Butler (ankle sprain) being listed as "questionable." Miami played well at home in the first round against the Bucks, but they also had Butler on the floor.
Miami is receiving 54 percent of the bets (37 percent of the handle) on the spread, but New York is getting 46 percent of the bets (63 percent of the handle). Along those same lines, the public likes the Knicks to get the win on the road as they are getting 68 percent of the bets (54 percent of the handle) on the moneyline.
As we mentioned earlier, the Knicks were led by Brunson and Randle, who were excellent on offense, which helped out the rest of the team. Brunson needed to see some threes fall in Game 2 after going 0-for-7 from beyond the arc in Game 1. The Knicks aren't the best three-point shooting team (29.1 percent in the playoffs), but as we saw in Game 2, it could be the difference maker. New York also won the battle on the glass in Game 2, which they must do again today. However, they have to limit their turnovers. In Game 2, the Knicks had 11 turnovers, leading to 22 points for the Heat, and it was the same story in Game 1 (13 turnovers, 22 points).
The Heat are forcing their opponents into 13.4 turnovers per game in the NBA playoffs, which is a good way to steal extra possessions and transition points. Sticking with Miami, they need more production from Adebayo, who has been relatively quiet through the first two games of this series.
Miami needs him to be the leading scorer because they can't depend on Vincent, who is scoring 20.5 points per game on 39.4 percent shooting from the field and 37.5 percent shooting from three-point range. The Heat also needs their bench to play like it did in Game 1, where they outscored the Knicks 30-15.
Nevertheless, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Knicks win today as they are 19-13-1 against the spread as road underdogs this season (including playoffs) and 16-9 ATS when the spread was +2.5 and +5.5. However, when Miami has Butler on the floor, they are a different team on both ends, despite being 11-23-4 ATS as a home favorite. It is tough to bet against Butler in the playoffs, but we will take the Knicks and the points.
Prediction: Knicks 108, Heat 105. The Knicks (+3.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (208.5)
Best player prop bet for Knicks vs. Heat: Gabe Vincent OVER 2.5 threes made (-125)
We could've taken Vincent's points prop, which is at O/U 13.5 points, but we will attack his three-point prop. The 26-year-old point guard has shot the ball well from deep in the NBA playoffs -- 42.4 percent on 6.6 attempts per game.
Vincent has gone OVER 2.5 threes in Games 1 and 2 and five out of seven Heat playoff games. New York's three-point defense has been solid this postseason, allowing opponents to shoot 33.2 percent. But it will not stop us from taking this prop, especially since Vincent is putting up 10 or more attempts in his last three games.
