Knicks-Cavaliers NBA Playoffs Series Betting Preview: Fourth-seeded Cleveland listed as modest favorite over New York

In a battle of Eastern Conference teams that have greatly improved over the past few seasons, the fourth-seeded Cavaliers face the fifth-seeded Knicks in the opening round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Neither squad finished top three in the regular season standings, but both probably serve as teams the top seeds won't want to face at any point of the postseason. This could be one of the more closely contested opening-round series, so it's imperative to do our due diligence to prepare you to bet this first-round showdown.

The first year of Donovan Mitchell's tenure with the Cavaliers has gone about as well as GM Mike Gansey could have hoped when he pulled off the blockbuster trade to acquire the All-Star. "Spida" has meshed perfectly with Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, making for a powerful perimeter scoring trio. Cleveland finished the regular season with 51 wins, the franchise's most since its 2016-17 run with LeBron James, and maintained the sixth-best home record in the NBA. Thanks to twin towers Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the Cavs also rank No. 1 in the Association in both points allowed (106.9 ppg) and defensive rating (110.6). Only one team has a better net rating, and only four teams maintained a higher shooting percentage this season. 

New York has plenty to be proud of, too, as the Knicks finished this season with the most wins (47) since the Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith era in the Big Apple. Bringing in Jalen Brunson via free agency last summer has paid off handsomely, as has New York's trade-deadline deal to acquire Josh Hart, Brunson's friend and college teammate at Villanova. A bounce-back year for All-Star Julius Randle has helped immensely, too, and all eyes will be on the status of his ankle between now and the series' start this weekend. If Randle can't go, we could see more heroics from Sixth Man of the Year candidate Immanuel Quickley.

These teams match up very well, with the Knicks able to deploy big-bodied interior presences like Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and Isaiah Hartenstein to combat Allen and Mobley. Both squads made serious noise in the East this season, going a combined 66-38 against conference foes and each winning its season series against the Celtics 3-1. 

Which of these gritty and talented Eastern Conference teams can advance to the second round? Let's discuss the Cavaliers-Knicks BetMGM odds and provide our prediction and best bets on how we think this best-of-seven might shake out.

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Cavaliers vs. Knicks series odds, picks, predictions

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

The Cavs finished with a four-game lead on the Knicks for the fourth seed, guaranteeing home court in the first round. And what an advantage home-court has been for J.B. Bickerstaff's squad. Cleveland went 31-10 at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, 24-16-1 ATS at home, and 23-15-1 ATS as a home favorite. 

However, the Cavs finished 20-21 on the road and 18-20-3 ATS away from home. That's a stark contrast from the Knicks, whose 24-17 road record this season ranked fifth-best in the Association. Tom Thibodeau's squad also had the third-best road cover rate in the league, going 26-14-1 ATS in enemy territory. When projected to lose in another team's house, the Knicks went 17-11-1 ATS. Since Josh Hart made his Big Apple debut on Feb. 10, they are 17-8 straight up and 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog. Suggestion: do not underestimate these Knicks.

Julius Randle's ankle could be the x-factor of the series. Thibodeau told the New York Post on Tuesday that his All-Star big man practiced in a limited capacity and has made steady progress. That's welcome news for Knicks Nation. Just days after seeing their leading scorer in a walking boot, fans have reinvigorated hope that he will be active for the opening-round series' tip on Saturday at 6:00 p.m. ET in Cleveland (ESPN). 

Randle was inactive for New York's March 31 game against the Cavs in Cleveland, but his squad didn't need his services to truck Bickerstaff's boys 130-116. Brunson dropped 48 points and dished nine assists, and six other Knicks joined him with double-digit points. The Knicks won their regular-season series with Cleveland, winning three consecutive tilts between early December and late March. New York's collective winning margin over the Cavs during that span was 327-300. That's an average of nine-point victories. 

NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Correct series result for Cavaliers-Knicks

New York's strong road play combined with Cleveland's .756 winning percentage at home makes this feel like an unstoppable force vs. an immovable object. Both of these squads have moxie, as my grandpa might have said 30 years ago, and both can extend this series to the final game of the best-of-seven. 

Brunson has been electric, providing a balance at point that the Knicks have been missing for years. Immanuel Quickley, aka IQ, has turned into a microwave at the right time. We also like Thibodeau, the strong and sometimes-aggressive veteran head coach, to lead his squad effectively throughout its first-round charge, but we ultimately expect the Cavs to pull off the hard-fought series victory in the ultimate single-elimination environment of Game 7 in Cleveland. 

We're getting awful odds on Cleveland in seven, but we can't very well change our prediction so that it aligns with a higher potential payout. There is always value in consistency, and going against your gut can have dire consequences in betting.

Betting advice: Go with the Cavaliers 4-3 (+350), but consider also dropping a small wager on the Cavs 4-2 at +475. This may cut down on your total win a bit, but it also improves your chances of hitting despite the massive variable presented by Randle and his injury. 

NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Game/Series double prop for Cavaliers-Knicks

This is a great way of chopping down Cleveland's -200 on the series and/or -210 moneyline for Game 1. Betting the Cavs to win Game 1 and the series is a wise wager, and you're not getting pulverized with juice to make it. 

Betting advice: Go with the Cavaliers to win Game 1 and Cavs to win the series (-155).