The eighth-seeded Heat will look to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in the past four years when they head to Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks (-3.5) in Game 5 at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Miami took care of business at home against New York, winning Games 3 and 4.
The Knicks played better in Game 4 on Monday night, but it wasn't enough despite Jalen Brunson dropping 32 points (10-21 FG, 2-7 3pt) and 11 assists. Julius Randle (20 points, nine rebounds, three assists) and R.J. Barrett (24 points, four rebounds, three assists) also had good outings, but the Knicks' bench was non-existent with 10 points. If New York wants to win tonight, they will need their bench to play better, especially with Immanuel Quickley (left ankle) looking unlikely to suit up again.
Meanwhile, the Heat got contributions from everywhere on the floor, as five players scored in double figures. Jimmy Butler led the way with 27 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds. However, Butler wasn't the only 20-point scorer for Miami, as Bam Adebayo dropped in 23 points and 13 rebounds. It was Adebayo's first 20-point effort in this series but third in the NBA playoffs. If the 25-year-old big man plays like he did during the regular season (20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game), the Heat will be a tough out for whoever they play the rest of the way. Miami will look for Adebayo to carry that momentum into tonight's closeout game against New York.
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Can the Knicks force a Game 6, or will the Heat be heading back to the Eastern Conference Finals? Below, we'll break down tonight's Knicks-Heat matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Heat vs. Knicks Game 5 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat +3.5 (-110); Knicks -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 209.5 (-110); UNDER 209.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Heat +140; Knicks -165
Even though the Heat have won the past two games, the Knicks are 3.5-point home favorites heading into tonight's Game 5. Miami has already proved they can win on the road in this series, taking Game 1 by seven points.
The public likes the Heat's chances to close out this series tonight, as they are getting an overwhelming 71 percent of the bets (58 percent of the handle) on the spread and 87 percent of the bets (76 percent of the handle) on the moneyline. In layman's terms, few people are giving New York a chance to win on its home floor despite its 23-18 home record during the regular season and a 3-1 record in the postseason.
If the Knicks want to prove the doubters wrong, they will need the trio of Brunson, Randle, and Barrett to at least do what they did in Game 4 when they scored a combined 76 points. In their Game 2 win at MSG, the trio had 79 total points, which they needed because the bench didn't do much (12 points). Of course, Jimmy Butler didn't play in that game, so the road will be tougher tonight. New York must clean up the turnovers after they posted 17 in Game 4, leading to 22 points for Miami. Turnovers have been a major issue for the Knicks, who are averaging 13.5 turnovers per game in this series.
As for the Heat, they will look to impose their will early and try to deliver a knockout punch to take the raucous MSG crowd out of it. We know Butler will bring it, as he's averaging 20.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 5.3 rebounds per game in Game 5s over his career. However, the question remains as to which Adebayo shows up tonight. Will it be the Adebayo we saw in Game 4 or the one in Game 2 that had just 15 points and eight rebounds?
If Adebayo can establish his presence early and make life tough for Randle in the paint, it could be the difference in how the game plays out. The Heat are 12-11 against the spread as road underdogs this season (including the playoffs) and 8-4 ATS when the spread was +2 to +5. Meanwhile, the Knicks 17-17 ATS as a home favorite but 14-9 ATS when the spread was -5 to -2. It's hard to bet against Butler and the Heat in this spot, but the Knicks will find a way as the more desperate team to push it to a Game 6.
Prediction: Knicks 107, Heat 104. The Heat (+3.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (209.5)
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Best player prop bet for Heat vs. Knicks: Kyle Lowry OVER 3.5 rebounds (+105)
We considered taking Caleb Martin's points prop (O/U 8.5, -105); however, Lowry's rebounding prop for plus money stands out a little more.
The 37-year-old point guard is only recording 3.1 rebounds per game in the playoffs but has gone OVER 3.5 rebounds in three out of the first four games against the Knicks. Lowry also had more than 3.5 boards twice in the first round against the Bucks. Bettors might be sweating out this prop late, but we know New York will hoist up a lot of threes, which could lead to long rebounds for Lowry.
