The eighth-seeded Heat (-4.5) attempt to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the fifth-seeded Knicks in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup on Monday night (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT). After the Jimmy Butler-less Heat couldn't close in a 111-105 Game 2 loss at Madison Square Garden, Butler's return helped Miami notch an impressive 105-86 Game 3 win. Despite posting their worst offensive showing this postseason (109.4 offensive rating), Miami locked down on the defensive end, holding New York to a lackluster 88.7 offensive rating.
Butler (ankle) led all scorers on Saturday afternoon (28 points, nine-of-21 FG) but again tweaked his ankle in the second half. He was able to return, and although he's officially listed as "questionable" ahead of Game 4, look for the superstar wing to be full-go tonight. Although Miami shot just 34.1 percent from the field, Max Strus (seven-of-14 FG) and Bam Adebayo (17 points, seven-of-14 shooting) found success getting to their spots against the Knicks' defense.
The Knicks' offense couldn't do much of anything, shooting 20 percent from deep (eight-of-40) while failing to reverse the basketball enough to stress the Heat's rotational defense. New York's half-court offense was just as underwhelming, and although they did a sufficient enough job on the defensive end, scoring 86 points just won't cut it. On top of Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson dealing with ankle injuries of their own, reserve guard Immanuel Quickley aggravated his ankle in the fourth quarter, failing to return to game action.
Can the Heat maintain their sensational postseason play, or will the Knicks even up this best-of-seven? Below, we'll break down tonight's Heat-Knicks matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Heat vs. Knicks odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat -4.5 (-105); Knicks +4.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: OVER 208.5 (-105); UNDER 208.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Heat -190; Knicks +155
Miami's been a lethal against-the-spread team during its postseason run, sporting an elite 87.5-percent cover rate (7-1 ATS). After closing as four-point favorites in Game 3, it's no surprise to see the Butler-led Heat pegged as 4.5-point favorites after a 19-point victory. However, the betting market still respects the Knicks enough not to adjust this spread much after losing by 19, and despite being in a 2-1 hole, there's enough time for Tom Thibodeau's bunch to turn things around.
It starts with running a better half-court offense and not settling for shots early in possessions like on Saturday. It's probably within the Knicks' best interest not to hoist 40 threes in Game 4 considering they shot just 35.4 percent from deep in the regular season (19th), but against a Heat defense that held strong in their defensive rotations, they might not have many better options.
Given how connected the Heat have looked in the postseason, it's hard to make a case to fade them right now. It hasn't really mattered who's been on the floor, as every rotational player has done his part. Miami's bench boasts the best net rating this postseason (5.9), while the Knicks' bench sports a -0.3 net rating over their eight playoff games.
We expect both offenses to put forth more efficient showings tonight, but we still think Miami's ability to run better offense and get to its spots consistently results in another win and cover for the red-hot Heat.
Prediction: Heat 107, Knicks 102. The Heat (-4.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (208.5)
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Best player prop bet for Heat vs. Knicks: Max Strus OVER 2.5 made three-pointers (-120)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
With the Knicks likely continuing to send double teams Butler's way, we like Strus to splash in three-plus threes tonight. Strus didn't have his best three-point shooting night in Game 3 but made three of his 10 attempts from distance. In what should be a bounce-back performance from both offenses, we think the DePaul product hits three-plus threes for a third consecutive game.
