The last time the Celtics stepped foot in the Kaseya Center to face the Heat, they were down 3-0, on the verge of a cataclysmic sweep, and looking like a team about to be blown up. This time — just four days later — Boston will walk in with heads held high on the verge of making NBA history on Saturday night (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
Joe Mazzulla finally appears to have this Celtics team back to the impressive caliber of two-way play they reached in January and February. In the nick of time, Boston again looks like the class of the Eastern Conference.
So, what has changed?
MORE: Three reasons Boston can overcome a 3-0 deficit
For one, Jimmy Butler has gone from superhuman/Monstar/best player in the NBA to fatigued and frustrated mortal. "Jimmy Buckets" turned into Jimmy Bricks in Game 4, shooting just 9-of-21 from the floor (although he still scored 29 points). He then put up just 10 shots in Game 5, often swarmed by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and he even had a three-pointer sent back in his face by Robert Williams.
Through the past two games, the man who looked like he was cruising to an Eastern Conference Finals MVP has been a combined -44. Still, Butler assured the media after Miami's Game 5 loss that the Heat are "going to win the next game."
MORE: Butler still confident despite Game 5 loss
Confidence is often key to victory, but these Celtics look about as confident as we've seen them since their 2022 NBA Finals run. Jayson Tatum and company didn't just squeak out the past two victories — they imposed their will and took those wins with force. They pushed the pace, drove to the rim, moved the ball effortlessly, and made it rain green from beyond the arc.
Three-point shooting — or as my esteemed colleague Steph Noh calls it, three-point variance — has become the x-factor of this series and the postseason in general. Over the past eight games, Boston is 4-0 when it makes 15 or more treys and 0-4 when it makes 12 or fewer. Similarly, Miami has averaged just 8.5 threes over its two losses this series, compared to 14.6 over its three wins. As Noh wrote today, it's a make-or-miss league, and "the Celtics are the ultimate make-or-miss-team."
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That makes playoff games difficult to handicap from a traditional spread perspective, but we have enough of a sample size to know which BetMGM bets yield value and which ones carry more volatility than we're willing to take on as bettors.
Let's dive into the odds for this pivotal Game 6 clash between the Heat and Celtics, discuss some betting trends and key stats, and ultimately make our best bets and favorite player props.
Celtics vs. Heat Game 6 odds, picks, and predictions
- Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-110) | Heat +2.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 210.5 (-110) | UNDER 210.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -145 | Heat +120
Boston fans must love seeing that the Celtics are favored by just 2.5. Before Game 5, large spreads were like a kiss of death for Mazzulla's squad. Over their previous 30 games when favored by at least seven points, the Celtics had gone 19-11 straight up but just 15-15 ATS. During just these playoffs, they had been 3-8 ATS when favored by seven or more.
When favored by between two and three points, the Celtics have won and covered 13 of their past 15 games. They are also 7-1 over their past eight elimination games, and they have won an unfathomable four road elimination games in a row.
This Celtics team is "nails" on the road and plays its best team basketball when it's been knocked against the ropes. Suddenly, they're not taking possessions off or mailing in an offensive set. Suddenly, they're bearing down on defense and pushing the tempo. Suddenly, they're championship contenders again.
Miami, meanwhile, looks more and more like a team that has been playing way above its head and has been baffled by a better squad sending it plummeting back down to Earth. The three-point shooting has unsurprisingly regressed in a major way, and the loss of breakout point guard Gabe Vincent(ankle) has put too much onus on an aged Kyle Lowry. Lowry is great as a second-unit playmaker and spot-up shooter, but he's awful as the primary ball-handler of a starting unit in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Butler doesn't have enough help offensively to combat these Celtics when they're seeing green. Caleb Martin has been great, but Erik Spoelstra has understandably been hesitant to use him in the starting lineup for fear that he would be giving up too much size. Haywood Highsmith hit some big shots in Game 5, and we wouldn't be surprised if we see more of both Martin and Highsmith Saturday night.
Still, it doesn't seem like enough. Boston looks focused, energized, and physical — all the things that Mazzulla has been preaching since Brad Stephens stripped him of the "interim" tag and promoted him to head coach. The Celtics looked like they gave up on their coach in Game 3, but they appear to be fighting for him to keep his job ever since. We're expecting more of the same intensity in Game 6, and we're smashing the Celtics -2.5.
We'll also be betting two alternate totals: Boston's OVER of 105.5 at -135, and Miami's UNDER of 105.5 at -135. This strategy has worked for us in the past: Picking more attainable over/unders by buying some points and upping the juice a bit as opposed to just betting the OVER or UNDER on the set combined game total. Here's our thinking behind our alternate OVER and UNDER:
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 14 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's past six games when playing at home against Boston
Miami has scored 99 and 97 points, respectively, over the past two games, while Boston has poured in 116 and 110. We feel very confident in the Celtics winning, covering, and going well OVER 105.5. We also feel very confident that Miami will not come close to 106 points for the third game in a row. Game 7, here we come!
Prediction: Celtics 111, Heat 102. The Celtics win (-145) and cover (-2.5) while the game goes OVER (210.5) just barely. We'll be betting alternate totals for each team: OVER 105.5 for the Celtics (-135) and UNDER 105.5 for the Heat (-135).
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Best BetMGM player prop bet for Heat vs. Celtics: Caleb Martin OVER 1.5 three-pointers (-150)
Sure, we're taking on some juice here. Honestly, the juice is worth the squeeze with Martin, who has shot the lights out all series. Martin has 14 treys in just the Eastern Conference Finals, including multiple each game. He has hit two-plus triples in seven of Miami's past eight games and 11 of 16 playoff games overall. We love this prop and we also love Al Horford at -105 to hit two threes.
