The eighth-seeded Heat and the second-seeded Celtics will face off against each other for the second-straight year in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Game 1 tipping off on Wednesday night (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT). The Heat are coming off a six-game second-round series win over Knicks, while the Celtics dominated the Sixers in Game 7 thanks to a 51-point performance from Jayson Tatum.
The Celtics defeated the Heat in seven games in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, hanging on for a 100-96 win in Game 7. Heat star Jimmy Butler led all scorers with 35 points and grabbed nine boards, but the Celtics had three players score at least 20 points, helping them advance to the NBA Finals.
If last year's ECF is anything close to what we could see this year, we are in for a treat. The Celtics are the clear favorites (-550) to win the Eastern Conference after opening up at -500 and receiving 50 percent of the bets and 93 percent of the handle. However, do not count out the Heat, who has been in this spot before and won't be phased by the bright lights.
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Can the Heat win their third-straight Game 1 in this year's playoffs, or will the Celtics protect their homecourt, which has been a struggle in the playoffs? Below, we'll break down Wednesday night's Heat-Celtics matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Heat vs. Celtics Game 1 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat +8.5 (-115); Celtics -8.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: OVER 210.5 (-115); UNDER 210.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Heat +290; Celtics -375
The Celtics enter Wednesday's series opener as 8.5-point favorites over the Heat, but that might not matter with how Boston has played at home during the playoffs. In this year's postseason, Boston is 4-3 straight up and 4-3 against the spread at TD Garden. However, in the regular season, the Celtics had a record of 32-9 at home -- one of the best records in the Association.
The Heat and Celtics split their four-game season series, with each team winning a game on the road. For the Celtics to win Game 1, which they failed to do in the second round against the Sixers, they need Jayson Tatum to carry over his momentum from Game 7 last weekend. The 25-year-old star was locked in, dropping 51 points on an efficient 17-of-28 from the field and 6-of-10 from three-point range. If Tatum and Brown are leading the charge, it should open up things for Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White, who have had their moments in this year's playoffs.
Boston must also defend the three-point line against the Heat, who are shooting 36.8 percent from beyond the arc on 36.4 attempts per game. Miami has not been shy from letting it fly from deep, which was an issue in the regular season. The Heat won the last two meetings against the C's in the regular season, holding Boston to 32.3-percent shooting from three-point range.
The Heat's defensive rotations must be on point on the perimeter because the Celtics live by the three and die by the three. Offensively, Miami will need Bam Adebayo to play at a high level, as Jimmy Butler won't be able to do it all by himself. In four regular-season meetings against Boston, Adebayo averaged 25 points and nine rebounds per game. If that Adebayo shows up, the Heat can take the Celtics the distance in this best-of-seven series.
The Heat are 20-26-1 ATS on the road and 12-12 ATS as road 'dogs this season (including the playoffs), but they are 5-2 ATS when the spread was between +6.5 and +9.5. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 25-20-1 ATS as a home favorite but 14-14-1 ATS when the spread was between -9.5 and -6.5. We see Miami's Game 1 magic disappearing on Wednesday with the Celtics winning straight up, but we still like the Heat to cover this large number.
Prediction: Celtics 112, Heat 106. The Heat (+8.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (210.5)
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Best player prop bet for Heat vs. Celtics: Jaylen Brown OVER 2.5 three-pointers made (-105)
Brown is coming off a solid performance in the second round against the Sixers, averaging 22.9 points per game on 54.1 percent shooting from the field and 43.2 percent from beyond the arc (5.3 attempts per game). The Celtics will be looking for an even better performance from Brown, as Miami will try to limit the impact of Tatum, who has figured something out on the offensive end.
In this year's NBA playoffs, Brown is shooting a healthy 47.1 percent from deep and has gone OVER 2.5 threes made in eight out of his 13 games. During the regular season against Miami, Brown shot 40 percent from three-point range but only made more than 2.5 three-pointers in one of three meetings. Miami has done a solid job defending the three-point line this postseason, limiting teams to just 33.8 percent. Despite that, we still like Brown to go OVER this number, as the Celtics are attempting 38.9 three-pointers per game.
