In a postseason battle of recently-awakened giants, the defending Eastern Conference-champion Heat will clash with reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the 76ers in the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN). We'll get you up to speed with the BetMGM odds to advance, and share our best bets, top props, and final score prediction for what should be an instant-classic.
So many storylines in one game. The Heat will be looking to replicate their improbable 2023 run from the Play-In to the Finals. Jimmy Butler faces his former squad in Philly. Embiid, recently returned from a knee injury, attempts to quell the "Heat culture" and slay a perennial postseason powerhouse.
The Heat have won seven of their past 10 games. The 76ers have won six in a row and eight of their past 10. Miami had the best road record in the East this season, going 24-17 away from Kaseya Center and allowing an NBA-low 106.6 points per away game. Philly went 25-16 at home and 31-8 with Embiid this season.
Long story short, this should be an incredibly entertaining game. Let's get to the 76ers-Heat odds for this Eastern Conference clash, and unveil our best bets and top props.
Heat at 76ers NBA Play-In Tournament game: Odds
All odds from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- Spread: 76ers -4.5 (-105) | Heat +4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: 76ers -200 | Heat +165
- Total: Over 207.5 (-115) | UNDER 207.5 (-105)
The odds have not changed since they opened, so oddsmakers seem pretty bullish on the Sixers' chances. We agree, as we have Philadelphia prevailing at home and securing the seventh seed in the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Let's face it, folks: the Heat have taken a big step back since last postseason, when they roared through the East and punched their ticket to the NBA Finals against the eventual-champion Nuggets. Sure, the Heat still play very well on the road — and their defense remains solid — but their offense has been too suspect to trust against a now-healthy Philadelphia squad.
Miami has averaged just a hair over 110 points per game this season, and 108 PPG on the road. In contrast, the Sixers have averaged 115.5 PPG at home. In games with Embiid active, that number shoots up to 120.7.
That's the biggest difference between Miami and Philly: JoJo can control both ends of the floor, get Bam Adebayo in foul trouble, and command the offensive and defensive glass. And combined with breakout star Tyrese Maxey in the pick-and-roll, they will pack far too much of a scoring punch for the Heat to withstand.
MORE: Predictions for every Play-In game | Best bets | Finals odds
Nick Nurse's squad already took care of business in its last meeting with Miami, a 109-105 victory in South Beach. It also won its previous matchup with the Heat on March 18, despite Embiid still being sidelined with his knee injury for that one. Maxey's averages over those two meetings with the Heat: 33.5 points, 10.5 assists, and 8.5 rebounds. Superstar stuff.
Heat culture may still be alive and well, but Erik Spoelstra's team just doesn't have the same kind of magic in a bottle it enjoyed during its improbable run to the Finals last year. The Sixers with Embiid and Tyrese Maxey might be the best seventh-seed in the history of the playoffs, and they could be the next Play-In squad to contend for a championship.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: 76ers 114, Heat 107 — the Sixers win (-200) and cover (-4.5), and the score goes well OVER the total (207.5).
Heat at 76ers NBA Play-In Tournament game: Top player prop
Tyrese Maxey points — OVER 23.5 (-110)
As we already mentioned, Maxey torched the Heat the last two times he faced them. And Embiid's return from his meniscus injury hasn't slowed the young star down one bit. Maxey has scored 26-plus points in four of his past five games, including a 37-point performance over Miami and a masterful 52-point performance in San Antonio with JoJo resting. Nobody in Miami's backcourt can stop this dude when he's running on Max speed (see what we did there?). Hammer the OVER here.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Learn more >
