The second-seeded Grizzlies will try to keep their season alive tonight as they will play the seventh-seeded Lakers in Game 6 at 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Memphis staved off elimination in Game 5 on Wednesday night as they defeated Los Angeles 116-99 at FedExForum.
The Grizzlies knew their backs were against the wall in Game 5 after losing Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, and they responded well to the pressure. Desmond Bane led all players with 33 points on 12-of-21 shooting and 4-of-9 shooting from three-point range. Bane was also one of three Grizzlies players with 10 rebounds and dished out five assists. Along with Bane, Ja Morant shined in the win, producing 31 points, 10 boards, and seven assists. If the Bane-Morant backcourt can score 50 or more points tonight, the Grizzlies will give themselves a chance to push this series to a decisive Game 7.
As for the Lakers, Anthony Davis was their best offensive player, as he produced a team-high 31 points and 19 rebounds. Meanwhile, LeBron James struggled in the Game 5 loss, shooting 5-of-17 from the field and 1-of-9 from three-point range for 15 points. We should expect a better outing tonight from the future Hall of Famer as the Lakers look to close out this series on their home floor.
Can the Grizzlies push this series to a Game 7, or will LeBron and the Lakers be getting ready for the Western Conference semifinals? Below, we'll break down tonight's Grizzlies-Lakers matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Grizzlies vs. Lakers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Grizzlies +4.5 (-110); Lakers -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 220.5 (-115); UNDER 220.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Grizzlies +170; Lakers -210
The Lakers are 4.5-point favorites heading into tonight's Game 6 despite losing Game 5 by double digits in Memphis. Los Angeles held its own in Games 3 and 4 at home, which helps their case to be the favorite over the No. 2 seed Grizz.
To no one's surprise, the public feels the same way about the Lakers, as they are receiving 60 percent of the bets (48 percent of the handle) on the spread and 51 percent of the bets (65 percent of the handle) on the moneyline. In Games 3 and 4, Los Angeles did what they needed to do at home. While Game 3 was pretty much in hand as the Lakers had a historic first-quarter performance, they had to take down the Grizzlies in overtime in Game 4.
Los Angeles will need their two pillars (Davis and James) to get going early in the first quarter because it will help D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and the rest of the Lakers' offense. In Game 5, the Lakers shot 29.6 percent from three-point range, similar to what we saw from LA in Games 3 and 4 (25 percent and 27.8 percent). It will be up to Memphis to continue to defend the perimeter and also be competitive on the boards.
Speaking of the Grizzlies, we know they are not a great road team, as shown during the season (16-25), but we know that when this team is knocking down their shots and scoring inside the paint, they can be a tough out in the playoffs. In Game 5, the Grizzlies won the points in the paint battle (56-48) and went on a 28-8 run in the late third/early fourth quarter to put the game away. Memphis' bench also came to play on Wednesday night, equaling the Lakers' bench production (18-18).
Conventional wisdom says to take the Lakers on the spread at home, as LeBron James-led teams are 15-7 in Game 6s. He's also 9-2 when his team is up 3-2 in a series. However, the Grizz won't go down quietly as they remember their horrific Game 3 start in L.A. We'll probably stay from the spread as the best bet and instead attack the total, which has gone UNDER three times already in this series.
Prediction: Lakers 110, Grizzlies 107. The Grizzles (+4.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (219.5)
Best player prop bet for Grizzlies vs. Lakers: Austin Reaves OVER 1.5 threes-made (-130)
We will stay away from LeBron and Morant player props and instead take a chance on Reaves' three-point prop, which is at -130 but provides value. Throughout this first-round series, Reaves and Rui Hachimura have provided the Lakers with an added offensive boost. Reaves is averaging 17.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game while shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc.
The 24-year-old two-guard has made at least two three-pointers in three of the past five games and is averaging five attempts per game. The Grizz allowed the 12th-most threes made per game to SGs this season, making this an ideal spot for Reaves to step up.
