The Celtics and Mavericks will clash on national television this evening (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), in what should be one of the more entertaining battles of the NBA's loaded Friday night slate. Today we will cover every element of this game from a betting perspective, assessing the odds and revealing our best bets, top props and final score predictions.
Boston looks to hold court at TD Garden like it has all season, maintaining an impressive 27-3 home record. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have benefited greatly from the offseason additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Joe Mazzulla's squad has remained atop the NBA Finals futures boards the entire season. Entering the weekend, the Celts have won nine straight and 14 of their past 16.
MORE: Why Kristaps Porzingis is the key to Boston's title hopes
However, the Mavericks have also looked pretty dang good as of late, and Luka Doncic — the NBA's top scorer — has looked like a legitimate MVP candidate. Since Christmas, the 25-year-old superstar has averaged 36.1 points, 10.3 assists, and 9.1 rebounds per game while maintaining a true shooting percentage of 63.5. The only question mark for Friday night is whether Luka will suit up after sustaining an ankle sprain on Wednesday against Toronto.
MORE: Luka's step back three has become a signature NBA move
Dallas has been getting the best out of Kyrie Irving, albeit in a complementary role alongside Doncic. The Mavs have also enjoyed key contributions from trade-deadline acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. And Tim Hardaway Jr. sits among the NBA Sixth Man of the Year favorites listed on BetMGM's futures boards. Jason Kidd's Mavs won't be an easy out for the Green-teamers, but they don't stand a chance if Doncic sits.
We're already getting ourselves psyched for this one, so let's get right into the odds for Celtics vs. Mavericks and unveil our best bets from BetMGM.
Celtics vs. Mavericks points spread and moneyline
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: Celtics -9.5 (-110) | Mavericks +9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -450 | Mavericks +340
- Over/under: O 236.5 (-110) | U 236.5 (-110)
It comes as no surprise that the Celtics are big favorites here, as they have won nine games in a row and have a ridiculous 27-3 record at TD Garden. The Mavericks have gone just 16-12 on the road.
Dallas recently lost to Boston 119-110 in late January before the All-Star break, and that was when Boston was without Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavs could also be without Doncic, the best scorer in the NBA.
Adding insult to injury, Boston also enters the night having last played on Tuesday, whereas the Mavs played in Toronto on Wednesday night.
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As good as Dallas has been lately, we just can't see the Celtics losing this game at home. Boston has far too much offensive firepower and plays too strong a team brand of basketball on both sides of the floor. Home-court advantage at TD Garden is also unlike any home-court advantage in the NBA.
The devil's advocate will say that 9.5 points is quite a lot to give Dallas. And sure, the Mavericks have plenty of reasons for optimism heading into the home stretch of the playoff race in a stacked Western Conference. However, we can't get behind a team that relies so heavily on its superstar — especially when the superstar is banged up.
Even when Luka's healthy, we've seen some blemishes from this Mavs squad, mainly ball security and shot selection when games tighten up. We saw it in January when these teams last met — things tightened up, the Mavs offense got a little stagnant, and a few turnovers and poor shots later Boston rolled into halftime having won the second frame 41-33. The Celtics never looked back.
Former Maverick Kristaps Porzingis didn't even play in that game, and Boston still won by nine points despite Luka, Kyrie and Hardaway Jr. combining for 76 points. Luka's finishing line that night: 33 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists. His casual 25th-birthday performance against Toronto on Wednesday: 30 points, 11 rebounds, 16 assists. How can they survive with this guy out or at 75 percent?
Doncic might be the best pure scorer and playmaker in the NBA, but the Celtics remain the best overall team. They rank first in offensive rating, third in defensive rating, and top five in both scoring and points allowed. They have elite defenders on the perimeter and at the rim, and they just closed out the month of February shooting 40 percent from 3-point land. It's an embarrassment of riches and too tall a foe for this Mavericks team to surmount.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 123, Mavericks 111 — The Celtics win (-450) and cover (-9.5), with the score going UNDER the total (236.5). Just keep in mind that any bet on a 9.5-point spread before knowing whether Luka Doncic will play would be volatile.
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Kristaps Porzingis points — OVER 21.5 (-115)
Porzingis has come up big in multiple spots as of late, and he should be able to feast on undersized opposing centers Daniel Gafford, rookie Dereck Lively II, and P.J. Washington. We don't need a "revenge game" narrative for the former Mav — KP has scored 22-plus in two straight games and six of his past eight dating back to before the All-Star break. Smash the OVER!
