A lot can change in 48 NBA hours — and for that matter, in 48 minutes.
Just two days ago, the second-seeded Celtics were preparing for a Game 1 at home against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, brimming with confidence about their golden opportunity to get out to a quick 1-0 series lead. But James Harden turned back the hands of time and dropped 45 on Boston, including the dagger three-pointer from deep in former 76er Al Horford's face. Poetry.
Now Embiid is back — recovered from his sprained LCL and apparently revitalized from his brand new MVP trophy — and Philly will look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in enemy territory. Today we will break down everything you need to know about Game 2 from a betting perspective, and unveil our final score prediction and best bets.
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Celtics vs. 76ers odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -7.5 (-110) | 76ers +7.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 217.5 (-110) | UNDER 217.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -350 | 76ers +275
The 76ers entered Wednesday morning as 10-point underdogs despite the massive Game 1 upset, but the odds were pulled from most sportsbooks almost immediately after Shams Charania dropped this tweet:
After winning MVP last night, during a quick 76ers celebration, Joel Embiid turned to the team and said: “I’m back.”
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 3, 2023
Embiid is indeed on track to return tonight in Game 2 vs. Celtics barring setbacks, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium.
Game-changer! When the smoke cleared from the Shams-bomb, BetMGM had the Celtics adjusted to -7.5 and -350. The Sixers, who were +375 ahead of Game 1, jumped up to +275 for Game 2 — an implied winning probability of a little over 25 percent.
Embiid's presence clearly improves Philadelphia's interior defense — and team D in general — after basically letting Boston have whatever it wanted most of Game 1. Sixers coach Doc Rivers did switch to a 2-3 zone in the second half — which appeared to disorient the Celtics and affect their rhythm — but Philly still doesn't pull off that miracle upset without the vintage heroics of Harden.
The questions now:
- Is Embiid really fully healthy?
- How much of a step back (pun intended) does Harden take offensively?
- Can Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla make the necessary in-game adjustments?
The Celtics took three of four regular-season games against the 76ers, and they beat Philadelphia 4-0 and 4-1 the last two times these franchises met in the postseason. Jayson Tatum and the Green-teamers have been JoJo's Kryptonite throughout his seven-year career, so he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder despite being named the league's most outstanding player on Tuesday evening. But is he back to 100 percent physically? And whether he is or not, does his return to the floor mean 'Playoff Harden' will be put back into the bag?
MORE NBA: How Harden broke the Celtics | SN NBA Awards 2023
In a weird way, the Celtics might actually be better off going against the Sixers at full strength with their MVP in tow. Sure, Philly's defense just got exponentially better — but the Sixers offense also slows down a bit when JoJo's on the court. With the pace toned down a bit, and Harden playing much more off-ball offense, Boston will have more time to set up defensively and will spend less time backpedaling on high screen-and-rolls and slip screens.
Boston also might benefit from the Sixers going back to man defense, Rivers' preferred method of choice while Embiid is active. The zone, for whatever reason, seemed to give Boston fits in the second half of Game 2. The Celtics became stagnant, started playing iso ball, and began making costly mistakes in clutch situations. All said, Boston committed 16 turnovers while forcing just six. Jaylen Brown, who had been cooking all night — 6-of-7 from the floor in the first half — took just three shots in the second half. JB and JT combined for just six fourth-quarter attempts.
Embiid will get his points. He averaged 36.8 points per game on 61.2 percent shooting against the Celtics this season, and Robert Williams and Al Horford both look like shells of their 2022 championship run selves on the defensive end of the floor. For these reasons, we are leaning heavily toward the OVER of 217.5 points tonight. Game 1 finished with 234 total points — do we really expect this evening's final score to be 17 points less with the MVP back in action? Don't go by their regular-season meetings — things change in the playoffs, as evidenced by the Celtics surrendering 122.5 points per game to the Hawks across the last four games of their opening-round series.
What on Earth is this defense? Sixers go to their 77 series. Reed slips, no communication, no low helpline rotation. Just an easy bucket. Smart, Brown, White all looking at each other. NOT the defense we saw last postseason. Not even close. pic.twitter.com/PVfFru0Y2w
— Adam Taylor (@AdamTaylorNBA) May 2, 2023
The Sixers entered this series as the most efficient defense this postseason with a 102.5 defensive rating, ironic considering the Celtics finished the regular season ranked third in D-rating. But it helped that Philly drew a first-round matchup with the Nets, the second-least efficient offense in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. In contrast, Boston has been the No. 1 most efficient offense this postseason (the Sixers rank third). The Celtics and 76ers also ranked second and third in offensive rating during the regular season. So, yeah, we're expecting more offense than defense. And the latest news that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart has been listed as questionable with a chest contusion only reinforces that narrative.
Look for Boston to play with pace and force Embiid to run the floor early and often. Tatum and Brown will likely attack the rim, too, as the Celtics outscored Philly 66-42 in the paint in Game 1 and the onus will be on Embiid and his bum knee to lock down that glaring weakness. Establishing consistent penetration tends to open up the floor for Mazzulla's squad, creating open looks for shooters on the perimeter like the Jays, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, and Horford.
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The Celtics always seem to suffer mental lapses when they have a clear competitive advantage in a big position. They failed to close out the Hawks 4-1 at TD Garden last round, which would have likely given them two second-round games without Embiid active. Then with Embiid sidelined in Game 1, they literally passed the ball to the 76ers to give them the wide-open go-ahead score and ultimate upset win. However — Stephen A. Smith record screech — they typically bounce back well after losses. Between the regular season and playoffs, Boston has gone 18-9 after taking an L.
Of course, Boston is also just 15-12 against the spread after an L, and 16-14 ATS as a home favorite of at least seven points. We trust the Celtics to grab the bounce-back victory at TD Garden this evening, but we can't possibly trust them to beat a motivated Embiid and Harden by eight points — not after what we saw less than 48 hours ago.
Prediction: Celtics 115, 76ers 109. The Celtics win (-275) but the 76ers cover the spread (+7.5), with the game going well OVER the total (217.5)
Best player prop bet for Celtics vs. 76ers: Joel Embiid OVER 9.5 rebounds (+100)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
With Embiid back on the floor, the Celtics will have far less of an advantage on the interior — don't expect another 66 points in the paint, Green teamers! We also don't expect to see these teams combine to shoot 54.2 percent from the floor — we are in for a steep regression in efficiency after the sizzling first halves these teams got off to in Game 1. More jump shots and fewer makes equals more rebounding opportunities — that's just simple bball math. Embiid averaged 10.2 boards per game during the regular season and cleared 19 rebounds over the course of his last two postseason games against Brooklyn. Look for him to easily clear double-digits in rebounds again tonight, especially if Joe Mazzulla keeps giving Robert Williams under 20 minutes of playing time. Forcing Al Horford to box out one of the strongest big men in the NBA seems almost criminal, but nothing from Johnston Joe will surprise us at this point. Smash the OVER and enjoy the plus odds!
