The Celtics (-7.5) host the 76ers in a pivotal Game 5 this evening (7:30 p.m. ET, TNT), with Boston looking to regain control of the series after squandering a huge opportunity to go up 3-1 in Philadelphia. Let's break down Game 5 and discuss some key betting trends before unveiling our final score predictions, best bets, and favorite player props.
To borrow a Yogi Berra saying, Boston fans were feeling "deja vu all over again" when the Celtics inexplicably let the 76ers eke out of Game 4 with a win to tie the series back up. Boston had already squandered plenty of golden opportunities in the young postseason, including not closing out the Hawks in Game 5 of the first round and not taking Game 1 of this series with Embiid sidelined with an LCL sprain. Somehow, Game 4 burned even worse for Celtics Nation.
After erasing a 17-point deficit, Boston had a five-point lead going into crunch time, but the Sixers battled back, forcing overtime after Jayson Tatum passed up on the last shot in regulation and deferred instead to Marcus Smart for a missed three. In overtime, the Celtics again looked to be in control, but with a two-point lead on the penultimate possession, Tatum guarded Joel Embiid in the lane. Oh no, Celtics fans thought, that's a four-inch, 70-pound disparity. Then Jaylen Brown came to help, freeing up James Harden for a corner three. Joe Mazzulla's Celtics allowed the exact thing that couldn't happen to happen.
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No worries, Boston had possession with the shot clock turned off, down just one point. Call a timeout and draw up the final play, right? Nope! Mazzulla decided to keep his two remaining timeouts and let the boys run their own play. Smart and Tatum dribbled idly outside the arc for what felt like an eternity, then Tatum got going toward the hoop well inside five seconds left. By the time he elevated and passed back to Smart for another last-second three-point attempt, Smart did not fire the shot in time. Game over — Celtics lose by one on a three-point shot that went in but was released a smidge too late.
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Now the series basically starts anew, with Boston once again looking to get back up from the floor of the proverbial ring and land another haymaker. The Celtics' self-inflicted wounds continue to make seemingly every big game and every match a 12-round battle, but Boston's ability to recover time and time again have oddsmakers sticking with the Eastern Conference defending champions as the odds-on favorite not just in this series but also to once again represent the East in the NBA Finals.
Whether they can do it will depend a lot on tonight's outcome, so let's break down what we see happening in Game 5.
Celtics vs. 76ers Game 5 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -7.5 (-110) | 76ers +7.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 213.5 (-105) | UNDER 213.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Celtics -300 | 76ers +240
No surprise here — oddsmakers like the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 NBA Finals to bounce back yet again from its own big blunders and blown opportunities. Boston has gone 33-11 as the home favorite while covering 58 percent of those contests and maintaining a 10.1-point average margin of victory since the start of the 2023 NBA season. After a loss, the Celtics have gone an NBA-best 19-9 with a 16-12 ATS record. Simply put, the Green-teamers don't typically blow two in a row.
Boston's track record against the Sixers at TD Garden speaks for itself. Before the start of this series, Boston had a regular-season record of 13-4 at home against the 76ers dating back to 2014-15. More notably, the Celtics had a 5-0 postseason record against Philly at the Garden. If there is such a thing as Kryptonite for Joel Embiid, it's shamrock green. It took a gargantuan Game 1 performance by James Harden — a postseason-career best 45 including a dagger trey at the end of regulation — to break Philly's losing streak in Boston while Embiid was watching from the sidelines in street clothes.
One game later, the Celtics obliterated the Sixers by 34, powered by a 35-16 third quarter and a balanced scoring attack from Boston that has had many pundits picking the Celts to go all the way. Boston has plenty of championship traits, including depth, timely defense, three-point shooting, and the ability to hunker down on both ends with their backs against the ropes.
The Celtics have gone 3-0 following a loss this postseason, winning by individual margins of eight, eight, and 34 points, respectively. They were 5-0 and a combined +92 following their last five losses of the regular season. You can count the Celtics out and think that Philadelphia cracked some kind of code in Game 4, but bet the 'dog on the +240 moneyline at your peril. Boston's biggest enemy and best motivator this postseason has been itself, and it keeps bouncing back from its own wake-up calls to put opponents back to sleep.
Time will tell if the Celtics can learn their lessons and string together multiple strong efforts in a row deep in the playoffs. That's a prospective journey we have no faith in being able to predict as of right now. But as for the mission at hand this evening, we're pretty confident that Boston will continue its home success over Philly and once again rebound from a bump in the road.
Prediction: Celtics 115, 76ers 104. The Celtics (-7.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (213.5).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Celtics vs. 76ers: Jaylen Brown OVER 24.5 (-105)
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Brown has been the silent hero for this Celtics team, yet he often seems like the forgotten man in the offense late in games. Boston kept running a two-man game between Tatum and Smart at the end of regulation and overtime in Game 4, not even looking at JB, who had gone 10-of-16 for 23 points. Hell, the man has 23-plus points in seven straight contests and scored 31-plus in the final three games of the opening-round win over Atlanta. Go to that man! As the kids say, he is him. If Tatum doesn't want the last-second heroics, you can be damn sure Brown will take them with a clenched fist and capitalize on the opportunity like Tatum and Smart failed to not once but twice last time around.
