The inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament has reached the penultimate round in Las Vegas, with two games this evening determining the championship matchup for the first-ever NBA Cup. The first half of tonight's semifinals doubleheader, Bucks-Pacers at 5:00 p.m. ET (ESPN), has generated a ton of buzz for its historic over/under in the mid-250s.
If you like offense, you might want to leave work a little early to catch this one in real time. Coming off a massive knockout-round upset over the Celtics, Indiana ranks as the top-scoring and most efficient offense in the NBA, leading the league in field-goal percentage and assists while committing the fourth-fewest turnovers. Milwaukee, meanwhile, ranks third in the Association in scoring and just dropped 146 on the Knicks' top-10 defense in the quarterfinals.
Yesterday, we delved deeper into the 254.5-point opening total for this one, the largest over/under for a non-exhibition NBA game in over 30 years. Today, we will look at the updated odds, evaluate the latest betting insights, and find the best value on BetMGM so you can cash in on this Las Vegas showdown.
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the Bucks stifle Indiana on a neutral court, or will Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers continue their run at the NBA Cup? Let's get right into it and prepare you for all things betting on the Bucks-Pacers' semifinal clash.
NBA In-Season Tournament best bets: Bucks vs. Pacers
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized partner of the NBA. Click here to sign up!
- Spread: Bucks -5.5 (-105) | Pacers +5.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Bucks -200 | Pacers +165
- Over/Under: O 257.5 (-105) | U 257.5 (-115)
The Bucks, who just trounced New York 146-122, enter this neutral-court matchup as whopping -5.5 favorites despite the fact that Milwaukee lost to Indiana 126-124 one month ago. BetMGM gives Adrian Griffin's squad an implied winning probability of 66.7 percent.
Of course, the Pacers couldn't care less about being labeled an underdog. They have gone 6-3 straight up as 'dogs this season, most recently knocking off the Celtics in the knockout round behind Tyrese Haliburton's first career triple-double. Hali's step-back, and-one triple from 25 feet away served as the straw that broke the green team's back.
Indiana has been choppy on the defensive side of the floor, but there have been certain silver linings. Rick Carlisle's squad has allowed the fewest three-pointers per game (10.1) on the season, and opponents have averaged 15 turnovers per game over Indy's past nine contests. During that span, the Pacers have turned the ball over 28 fewer times than their opponents (+3.1 per game).
Indiana's best defense is its fast-paced, frenetic offensive. Even off made baskets, Haliburton races down the floor and has his team attacking the basket or taking a high-quality jumper within six seconds. The Celtics didn't even know what hit them in the second half of Tuesday's semifinal game. They tried to slow things down but ultimately got steamrolled 74-57 in the final two frames. Milwaukee suffered a similar fate the last time it faced Indy, allowing the Pacers to close out the game on a 23-8 run.
Still, the Bucks showed us a new level of offensive domination on Tuesday. Julius Randle went 14-of-19 for 41 points and Jalen Brunson and R.J. Barrett combined for 47 points, but New York still got steamrolled 146-122. Everything was clicking for Milwaukee. Giannis and Dame combined for 63 points on 23-of-35 shooting. Khris Middleton looked as confident as we've seen him since returning from his offseason surgery. Malik Beasley was knocking down treys in rhythm. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Cam Payne, and MarJon Beauchamp went above and beyond their role-playing duties.
When Griffin's squad is playing with this much cohesiveness, it can't be touched. Milwaukee ended up shooting 60.4 percent from the floor and an unfathomable 60.5 percent from three-point land. The Bucks finished with 32 assists, outshot New York 23-7 from long range, and forced the Knicks into 16 turnovers.
The only way we roll with the Pacers on a neutral court against this red-hot Bucks squad is if we buy Indiana 2.5 points to make it +9. Indiana ran like gazelles at home against Milwaukee a month ago, barely squeaking out a two-point victory after tripling up Milwaukee during an insane fourth-quarter run. This one's different. It's in Vegas, Indy recently showed backup big Daniel Theis the door (he had played pretty well against the Bucks), and we just don't envision Giannis and company letting the Pacers win another track meet against them.
Speaking of Giannis, the dude dropped 54 on Indiana the last time these teams met. He scored 64 percent of Indy's second-quarter points. He had so many and-ones in the game highlights I lost count. Without Theis, Indy will now rely even more heavily on Myles Turner to combat the Giannis/BroLo/Bobby Portis front court, with Jalen Smith the only real backup big. Indy didn't even need to roll out a backup center against Boston on Tuesday, because Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla seems to think Luke Kornet is an NBA player. You can't play Obi Tobbin as a small-ball center against the Bucks.
Indiana allows the most points, the most points in the paint, and the most fast-break points in the NBA -- three stats that play right into the hands of Antetokounmpo. Look for the Bucks to get big, try to draw fouls and and-one opportunities on Turner, and play an inside-out game with its embarrassment of outside-shooting riches once Indy brings double-teams. We like the Pacers to battle, but we expect the Bucks to win the war.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bucks 137, Pacers 130 — The Bucks win and just barely cover (-5.5), advancing to the NBA Cup, while the game soars well OVER the total (257.5). Consider buying some extra protection and going with Milwaukee -3.5 at -135. That shaves $20 off your total net profit if you wager $100, but it also lessens your chances of taking a bad beat.
The props we like include Giannis OVER 32.5 points (-125), Lillard OVER 27.5 points (-110), and Haliiburton's assists OVER up to 12.5 (currently offline). We also like the Bucks OVER their team total of 133 once that goes back up. Only 33 percent of bettors have chosen the OVER in this game, which has fluctuated between 254.5 and 257.5 over the past 48 hours. We would confidently bet the OVER up to 258.5, but not any higher than that.
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