What a difference five days make. Last Sunday, the underdog Heat made history by mounting their NBA-record 10th upset of this postseason, putting together yet another dominant fourth-quarter effort to steal home court from the Nuggets. Five days later, Denver has retaken command of the series and once again sits as overwhelming favorites to win its first NBA Finals in franchise history.
Entering the series, Denver's odds to win the championship were at -400. After the Nugs' Game 1 victory, they moved to -700. The Game 2 upset shifted it back to -275. Now, after a Game 3 beatdown in which Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said his squad got '"pummeled in the paint," Denver is at -800 to win it all.
The question for most bettors now is not if the Nuggets will win the Finals, but rather when.
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Our friends at BetMGM regularly send us betting insights from game to game — ticket and handle percentages, most bet props, top liabilities, etc. — giving us the scoop on what bets and props have garnered the most action. In the "Correct Series Outcome" department — basically, who will win and in how many games — the most bet result is Denver to win 4-2 at +325. Around 30 percent of all "Correct Series Outcome" bettors put their money on the "Nuggets in 6."
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Thirty percent might not seem like an overwhelming number, but remember that five possible series outcomes are remaining. Keeping that in mind, one outcome generating 30 percent of bets seems pretty substantial. Take a look at the full exact series outcome odds:
| Correct series result | Odds |
| Nuggets 4-1 | -110 |
| Nuggets 4-2 | +325 |
| Nuggets 4-3 | +375 |
| Heat 4-3 | +1100 |
| Heat 4-2 | +1800 |
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It's easy to see why bettors have been more inclined to bet on the "Nuggets in 6." Miami has won as an underdog a record 10 times this postseason and has already stolen one at Ball Arena (a feat that only seven teams pulled off in 50 tries before Game 2). Plus odds also always seem more inviting to the eye. Naturally, in our hearts, we want to make the most money possible, and the biggest potential payout — at least while betting Denver — is on Nuggets in 6 or 7.
However, as we always tell our friends, coworkers, and drunk uncles, "Bet with your head, not with your heart."
Don't let the plus odds of Nuggets in 6 or 7 cloud your judgment. Did Miami look in Game 3 like it had a shot to rebound and extend this series to six or seven games? The Nuggets systematically torched the Heat despite hitting just five three-pointers and losing the turnover battle 13-4. Two of Denver's main offensive role players, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, continued to do next-to-nothing for Michael Malone's squad, and the West's No. 1 seed still won by 15 points.
Jimmy Butler, one of the NBA's most clutch players, has regularly laughed off losses and looked unfazed by setbacks this postseason. As he walked off the floor after Game 3, he looked anything but unfazed. He looked defeated. Coach Spo looked similarly dejected in the post-game presser, disappointedly remarking on his squad's lack of effort, Jokic and Jamal Murray's brilliant two-man game, and how Miami got "pummeled in the paint."
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Game 3 was a shifting of the tide, and sportsbooks took notice while the majority of bettors seem to be ignoring it. Denver had its wake-up call in Game 2, and Malone ripped his squad for not putting in enough effort or finishing strong. The Nuggets responded with wire-to-wire dominance in enemy territory a few days later. Jokic, whose defense regularly gets dragged in MVP debates, looked incredible on both ends of the floor.
The smart money, as always, is on what will most likely make you a profit, not on what could make you the most profit. Getting a win at +325 sounds awesome, but "Nuggets in 6" has longer odds than the gentleman's sweep for a reason. "Nuggets in 5" is the far more likely result and therefore serves as the best bet on the board. I'll take a $90 profit on a -110 bet over a $100 loss on a +325 bet any day.
Denver has won nine of 12 quarters through three games, and it has outscored Miami by a collective per-game average of 107-99 this series. The Nuggets have out-rebounded the Heat 141-107 and shot nearly 10 percent better from the floor. Points in the paint? Malone's squad has dominated 154-106. Miami has had no answers for Jokic, the biggest and most powerful chess piece in the Association.
Looking at the overall dominance Denver has exhibited over Miami, it's hard to believe Spo's squad even pulled off one victory. It would be shocking to see the Heat pull off a second. You can chase the improbable and hope for a better return on your investment, but we'll be accepting a little juice and betting on the most probable event, which is the Nuggets winning the 2023 NBA Finals on their home floor in Game 5.
