Happy New Year! As the NBA approaches the halfway point of the 2023-24 regular season, the playoff race will more than likely kick into overdrive from here on out. There has never been a better time to capitalize on NBA prop betting, which we will focus on today as we highlight the best BetMGM bets from Tuesday evening's six-game slate.
The holidays brought us some fantastic wins on the NBA prop betting market. Our Christmas Day props went 9-5 and our Wednesday evening Prop-A-Shot series — our recent foray into NBA live betting — has seen our betting recommendations go 20-14 through two weeks.
Here's what's on the docket for Tuesday night: reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the 76ers tip things off against the Bulls in Philly (7:00 p.m. ET), followed by Jayson Tatum and the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics taking on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder in OKC (8:00).
Zion Williamson and the Pelicans host Mikal Bridges and the Nets (8:00), while Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs square off against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies in Memphis (8:00). Then Steph Curry's Warriors host Paolo Banchero's Magic, (10:00) and the Hornets and Kings close out the night in Sacramento (10:30).
Woo! Got all that!? Good. Now let's get to our picks. Here's our favorite Tuesday evening NBA prop bets from BetMGM, our go-to spot for all the latest odds, lines, and props. Good luck, have fun, and best wishes for a happy, healthy, and lucrative 2024!
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Best NBA Prop Bets Today: Top props for every game
Tobias Harris, F, 76ers vs. Bulls (7 p.m., NBA TV) — OVER 17.5 points (-110)
Joel Embiid has missed the past four games with an ankle sprain, but Nick Nurse and the Sixers took the reigning MVP off the injury report ahead of Philly's Tuesday night game versus the Bulls. Still, we can't even fathom betting either side of JoJo's points total of 34.5, which amazingly falls just below his per-game average of 35. Sure, he has hit 35-plus in seven of his past 10 games, but he also played 35-plus minutes in five of those 10 contests.
We don't expect Nurse to ride JoJo for longer than 27-28 minutes in his first game back since three days before Christmas, especially considering big minutes and high usage rates often lead to ankle re-aggravation. Thus, we expect Harris to step up and continue to be the quiet but effective third scorer for Philadelphia. The veteran swingman seems to be enjoying a career resurgence with James Harden out of the picture, and Tobi's past five games might be one of the better clusters of offensive play we've seen from him over the past five years.
During that five-game stretch, Harris has averaged 23.8 points per game and only dipped below 22 once. He has also shot the ball extremely well during this span — 48.9 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point land, and 91.6 percent from the free-throw stripe — and he has been racking up rebounding, assist, and defensive stats as well. Nurse can't possibly trim Harris's minutes down when he's this hot, especially with Philly sitting third in the East and JoJo nursing a tender ankle.
Harris has been underwhelming against Chicago so far this season, but he averaged 18.5 PPG across against the Bulls between 2020-21 and 2022-23. And it has been a while since Billy Donovan's squad has seen Tobi during a hot stretch like he's currently on. Smash the veteran forward's scoring OVER and get an early W to start the night.
Other 76ers-Bulls props we like: Joel Embiid UNDER 34.5 points (-115); Tyrese Maxey OVER 6.5 assists (-125); Alex Caruso OVER 1.5 steals (+155); Coby White OVER 27.5 points + rebounds
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Jalen Williams, G/F, Thunder vs. Celtics (8 p.m.) — OVER 16.5 points (-110)
After coming out of the gates quietly this season and then dealing with some injury issues, JDub has really come on strong as of late. The second-year swingman averaged 18.8 points per game during the month of December, shooting 52.8 percent from the floor and 50 percent from beyond the three-point arc. He's taking on a larger role in OKC's offense, and his counting stats and efficiency have thrived in the process.
Boston has some of the best perimeter defenders in the league — hence the modest scoring line of 16.5 here — but we bet the majority of the Celtics' attention will be on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight. SGA is OKC's MVP candidate (so many letters!), so stopping him will be the top priority of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Meanwhile, stud second-year big man Chet Holmgren — officially a rookie, and the Rookie of the Year frontrunner — will be commanding the attention of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford down low.
We like Williams' odds of cracking 20 tonight, as his confidence as an NBA scorer has never been higher. He's also averaging 19 points per home game as opposed to 16.6 PPG on the road, while the Celts allow 111.8 PPG on the road compared to 108.8 PPG at home. Slam the OVER on JDub.
Other Thunder-Celtics props we like: Kristaps Porzingis OVER 8.5 rebounds (-120); Chet Holmgren OVER 8.5 rebounds (+110); Chet Holmgren double-double (+190)
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Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies vs. Spurs (8 p.m.) — OVER 1.5 blocks (-125)
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs got blocked by the Celtics a whopping seven times on New Year's Eve — and they're giving up 5.7 BPG over their past three contests — and now they must face the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Jackson hasn't been the rim protector he was in 2022 — he's averaging just 1.6 swats per game as opposed to three last season — but we wouldn't be surprised if he racks up 2-4 tonight.
JJJ finished with two in Los Angeles against the Clippers on Friday, just his 12th game with two-plus blocks on the season. A big part of the problem has been foul trouble — Memphis played 12 games in December and Jackson finished with five fouls on five different occasions and four fouls three times. Well, San Antonio has drawn the third-fewest fouls per game this season, so we're not worried about the defending DPOY hacking his way to the bench tonight.
The Grizzlies need this win bad — they have dropped three games in a row and their 10-22 record ranks third-worst in the West. Bet on JJJ swatting a couple this evening, kicking off the New Year with a big W.
Jonas Valančiūnas, C, Pelicans vs. Nets (8 p.m.) — To record a double-double (+105)
Big V always seems to get up against strong opposing centers, so we like his chances of logging a double-double at home against Nic Claxton and the Nets tonight. Valančiūnas averaged 13.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in two games against Brooklyn last season, and he has double-doubles in seven of the Pelicans' past 10 games. This feels like a no-brainer in what should be one of the closer contests of the evening.
De'Aaron Fox, G, Kings vs. Hornets (10 p.m.) — OVER 28.5 points (-120)
You may have heard this already this season, but it bears repeating: the Hornets stink. They don't score or defend well, they can't rebound, and they have been lit up by countless ball-dominant perimeter players throughout the season. Fox loves going HAM on weak defenders — the Kings' recent three-game road trip saw him put up 43 points in Portland and 31 in Atlanta, and he dropped a 30-piece against Washington a couple weeks ago. He's scored 29 or more in in 13 of his past 19 games, so this seems like a modest projection.
Chris Paul, G, Warriors vs. Magic (10 p.m.) — OVER 8.5 assists (-150)
We have noticed a trend with the Warriors lately. Since just before Thanksgiving, the Warriors have gone 6-1 when Paul finishes with double-digit assists, 2-6 when he finishes with eight or fewer assists, and 1-2 when he fails to suit up. They don't need CP3 to score — they need him to get other players scoring! If Steve Kerr and the Warriors get Steph Curry open off-ball more, it will stretch the floor for Golden State and make things easier on Klay Thompson and the others. That won't happen without CP3 being the primary floor general, though. We expect the Dubs to get it done tonight and ride Paul's passing skills to their first victory in four games, closing out our night with a cherry on top of our betting sundae.
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