Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Nuggets and the Heat tips off on Sunday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC), with Miami still licking its wounds from a commanding 104-93 beatdown (that honestly wasn't even as close as that final score indicates). Bettors have some decisions to make — will Denver continue to dominate Jimmy Butler and the Eastern Conference champs? Or will Miami bounce back like it has so many times during its underdog run at the title?
One thing's for sure: At long last, the sports world seems to have finally arrived at a collective understanding that:
- Nikola Jokic is the most skilled unicorn in the NBA.
- The Denver Nuggets are a problem, and will be for some time.
Thursday night shocked the casuals and reinforced what most NBA heavies have already known for a while. Two-time MVP and freshly-minted Western Conference Finals MVP Jokic is a maestro of game flow, dictating the rhythm and reading defenses no matter how many times coaches like Erik Spoelstra try to audible into something new.
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Bam Adebayo, typically one of the best defenders in the NBA, once again looked lost trying to slow down Joker. Cody Zeller, Zorro mask and all, looked even worse. Miami tried to front him, and force him away from the hoop, and double him, and throw the zone at him — but nothing worked. Nothing ever seems to work. Jokic sees through everything, and as Jeff Van Gundy said during the Game 1 broadcast, he almost never makes the wrong decision with the ball.
In the beginning of the game, Jokic responded to Miami's blitz pressure by hitting Aaron Gordon in the post, where the veteran power forward would score easily against the Heat's undersized forwards. AG scored 12 of his 16 points in the opening frame, and ultimately finished the game 7-of-10.
Gordon also played masterful defense on Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler, who went from looking like a world-beater most of the postseason to a shell of himself. Caleb Martin, perhaps the top breakout of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, was also neutralized. Max Strus looked abysmal. Kevin Love never even came off the bench.
Meanwhile, Jokic and Jamal Murray — the latter of whom looks as incredible as he did in his emergence in the 2020 Bubble Playoffs — had NBA Twitter chattering about how they were as good as (if not better than) the best pick-and-roll duos in the history of the game. Move over, Stockton and Malone. Step aside, Duncan and Parker. These two just took "Heat Culture" and extinguished it like Smokey the Bear in the Rocky Mountain woods.
As Jokic said about Gordon, “The best thing that he did was accept his role.” And that's what everyone on this Denver team does, from its star duo to its 12th man. Mike Malone has given everybody on this team not just an identity, but a mission. And as the veteran coach told the Nuggets in the locker room following the victory, "Congratulations, but we haven't won a damn thing yet."
That's been his message to these Nugs all postseason — after a gentleman's sweep of the Wolves in Round 1, a six-game tussle with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in Round 2, and a 4-0 romp of LeBron James and the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, the message was "Keep going — we're not there yet."
But Malone isn't the only good coach in this matchup. As a matter of fact, Erik Spoelstra might rank second in terms of quality and quantity behind Gregg Popovich. A former film room savant and a Pat Riley protege, Spo adapts and rebounds from losses as well as any coach. If Denver lets its guard down for a second — just like we saw at one point in the fourth quarter of Game 1 — Butler and the Heat will be right there charging back at the best in the West.
It's easy to just dismiss Miami, the little engine that could of an eight seed that improbably rumbled its way to the championship round to face a titan of a team in the mile-high atmosphere. But every team we've talked about how the Heat's flame has been blown out, a fire within them reignites and they scorch the Earth to get back into a series.
Will Spo's unit once again battle back? Or will the Nuggets prove too much for a second straight game and take a dominant 2-0 lead? Let's dive into the odds, discuss some betting trends, and make our final score prediction and best bets.
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 2 odds, picks, and predictions
- Spread: Nuggets -8.5 (-110) | Heat +8.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 214.5 (-110) | UNDER 214.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -375 | Heat +290
The odds for Game 2 opened at -9.5, a full point higher than the line that closed when Game 1 tipped off, but it has since settled back to -8.5 once again. Denver is back to -375 on the moneyline, while Miami's underdog ML has increased slightly from +290 to +300.
The stunning shift has been on the series moneyline, which was already steep in the Nuggets' favor at its opening mark of -400. Denver's odds to win the series are now -700, which translates to an 87.5 percent implied winning probability.
It's tough to argue with those numbers. Denver has been as dominant a home team as we've ever seen throughout the regular season and playoffs, an NBA-best 43-7 at Ball Arena since the campaign's opening tip back in October. The Nuggets are now 10-1 straight up as a favorite, and 9-0 on the moneyline when favored at home.
MORE GAME 2 BETTING: Jamal Murray props | Bam Adebayo props
But the underdog Heat have nine wins of their own as underdogs during their championship run, and their late-game effort on Thursday brought them very close to covering their 12th spread in 15 games as playoff 'dogs. As Butler always says, Miami's 'got some dogs.' And they sure know how to get scrappy.
You can bet on a second consecutive double-digit victory by Denver if you so choose. But be warned: Spoelstra and the Heat have covered the spread in 27 of the past 31 games in which they were underdogs of at least seven points. And Joker, Malone, and the Nuggets are just 4-4 against the spread over their past eight games. They have also failed to cover in two of the past three contests in which they were favored by at least seven.
Miami also bounces back as well as any franchise in the NBA, almost as well as the Bucks, Nuggets, and Celtics this season. The Heat's record following a loss since the regular season tipped off: 28-17. And while we don't expect Spo's squad to mount an unlikely upset, we love them to at least cover this time around after getting embarrassed on Thursday.
MORE: What betting odds tell us about Miami's improbable run
Buy them a couple points just to be sure — you can get them at +10.5 for just a small juice-up of -140. Do you really expect "Playoff Jimmy" to stay silent? Do you honestly think Miami will follow up a game with an NBA Playoff record-low two free throw attempts with another dud? Nah, Spo will light a fire under these dudes' keisters and they will go out there with some pride.
Adebayo got his in Game 1 — Hell, he was really the only Miami player who had a plus game. But it seemed like Mike Malone was content with the Heat big taking 25 shots. If it keeps Butler out of the lane and away from his spots in the mid-range — and it neutralizes Miami's lethal three-point shooting — it's a small sacrifice in the grand scheme of things.
But that's exactly the sort of thing Spo will adjust to ahead of Game 2. They still want to get the best out of Bam, but not at the expense of Butler. They'll need to figure out how to shore up their franchise player from Gordon and turn him back into Jimmy Buckets and do away with Jimmy Bricks. And they'll need to figure out how to defend the Jokic and Murray pick-and-roll. These are no small tasks — but like Denver, Miami is a team on a mission with a lot of high-IQ guys who know their roles.
In the end, the Nuggets will most likely prevail to take the 2-0 lead, but we expect a much better game that will salvage the TV ratings ahead of Game 3 in South Beach. Don't worry, everybody — the fire's not out in these Heat yet — and like Malone keeps preaching, Denver hasn't won a damn thing yet.
Prediction: Nuggets 108, Heat 105. The Nuggets win (-375) but the Heat cover the spread (+8.5), with the game going just UNDER the total (214.5).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Nuggets vs. Heat Game 2: Jamal Murray OVER 26.5 points
Jamal Murray has been insanely good this postseason, leading the Nuggets in scoring in both the first round and the Western Conference Finals. He poured in 26 points in Game 1, making it look almost effortless in the two-man game with Joker. Expect more of the same in Game 2, especially if the Heat try, try again to contain Jokic and get the ball out of his hands. Murray has what it takes to not only lead the Nugs in scoring but also win Finals MVP, a bet we're glad we made (modestly) ahead of the Game 1 tip. His brilliance beneath the game's brightest lights is only beginning to shine.
