The Nuggets battled back on Wednesday to reclaim control of the 2023 NBA Finals, winning Game 3 in commanding wire-to-wire fashion 109-94 over the Heat. Any issue that presented itself for Denver in Game 2 was solved for Michael Malone's squad, and any confidence Miami built up over the weekend appeared to slip away. Our Game 4 betting preview will project what's next in this series, reviewing some betting trends and making our best bets and top player props.
What more can we say about Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray? They have cemented their case as one of the best duos in NBA Playoffs and Finals history, coming off the first-ever 30-point triple-doubles by teammates in a postseason game. Joker also became the first player to ever record a 30-20-10 game in the Finals. The two-time MVP shot 57 percent from the floor, 50 percent from three-point land, and 87.5 percent from the free-throw line.
Denver needed somebody to step up and score alongside Jokic after the big man poured in 41 points in Game 2 but no other Nugget reached 19. Well, the Nugs got 34 from Murray and 15 from emerging rookie Christian Braun, who shot 7-of-8 in relief of the reeling Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. Aaron Gordon also chipped in 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists, continuing to excel in every area.
The true x-factor for this Nuggets team in Game 3 was Jokic's defense, a facet of his game that regularly gets dragged during MVP debates. Joker locked down Bam Adebayo when he guarded him, playing a huge part in the Heat center missing 14 of his 21 shot attempts. Per Synergy, the Heat went 11-of-27 on shots contested by the Western Conference Finals MVP.
Has Denver struck a pivotal blow to Miami and retaken command of this NBA Finals for good, or will the resilient underdog Heat bounce back once again and tie this series back up at 2-2? Let's dive into the odds, betting trends, and our best bets for Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals.
MORE: Why Jokic's defense was the most impressive part of his historic Game 3
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4 odds, picks, and predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up
- Spread: Nuggets -3.5 (-105) | Heat +3.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 210.5 (-110) | UNDER 210.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Nuggets -160 | Heat +135
The talk of the NBA town after Game 2 was about how Miami has dominated fourth quarters not just in the postseason but also in the Finals. Michael Malone calling his squad out for effort also made the rounds, but Denver narrowly won the fourth quarter in Game 3 — and ultimately won the game by 15. The Nuggets have now won nine of the 12 quarters in this series, and effort never seemed to be an issue on Wednesday night.
Denver outscored Miami in the paint 60-34 and out-rebounded the Heat 58-33. The Nuggets also shot 51.3 percent from the floor, compared to Miami's 37 percent. The Heat missed 21 of their 34 attempts from within the restricted area, and Denver grabbed 45 defensive rebounds on 58 total Miami misses. The Nuggets kept their feet on the gas all game, often rim-running Jokic so he could seal defenders near the hoop before help could arrive in transition.
MORE NBA FINALS BETTING:
MVP odds | Jokic triple-doubles | Exact series outcome
Another big adjustment we saw from Game 2 to Game 3 for Denver was spacing and movement. The Nuggets made a concerted effort to free up Murray from top Heat perimeter defender Jimmy Butler, using high screens and movement away from the ball. The two-man game between Murray and Jokic also continues to look effortless in wins, drawing comparisons to some of the best guard-center duos in NBA history.
What's amazing about Game 3 is that Denver won the game by 15 despite hitting just five three-pointers and despite committing 13 turnovers to Miami's four. This was an old-school beatdown by Jokic, Murray, and company, one that left Erik Spoelstra looking quite dejected in his post-game press conference.
"We lost a lot of physical 50-50 or ball-in-the-air, ball-on-the-floor battles," Spo said. "That made it too much to overcome — the dynamic of those two, but also getting all the extra effort points. Effort plays, loose balls, rebounding battles. We got pummeled in the paint. We didn't offer much resistance."
Now it's Miami's turn to try to answer the bell and rebound after a disappointing home loss. The Heat have been here before, though. They have gone 29-17 following a loss since the start of the 2022-23 regular season, and they have won an NBA-record 10 postseason games as underdogs in these playoffs. Spo is one of the best in the business at making game-to-game adjustments and getting the best out of all his rotation players.
Denver just looks like a flat-out better squad from top to bottom, with more size and strength and a much bigger scoring punch than Miami. Now that Malone has woken his squad up effort-wise and done something about the fourth-quarter inadequacies, we find it hard to imagine the Heat pulling off another victory unless Tyler Herro comes back from his hand injury and goes scorched Earth at Kaseya (it's not going to happen).
What we are witnessing from Jokic is generational dominance from every level of the game, and he just so happens to also have one of the best young microwave-scoring guards in postseason history. With Aaron Gordon playing great defense and crashing the boards with aggressiveness, coupled with Christian Braun now breaking out, a gentleman's sweep is starting to look like more of a possibility.
Think about this: MPJ and KCP, two of Denver's main offensive cogs, have delivered next to nothing for the Nuggets scoring-wise. In 192 combined minutes this series, they have 40 points on 13-of-47 shooting (27.6 percent) and 5-of-28 from three-point land (17.8 percent). Yet, Denver has won nine of 12 quarters and outscored Miami by a collective average of 119.7-99.3.
If Malone gets improved shooting from either of those three-and-D guys or just shifts to Braun over either of them for the bulk of Game 4, we might see an even worse drubbing on Friday night. BetMGM is making our lives easy with a 3.5-point spread because we're smashing the Nuggets to cover anything under a handful. Honestly, you could tell me Denver is -9.5 right now and I would still have a lot of trouble convincing myself Miami had enough to physically stay in a 48-minute fight with this heavyweight of a No. 1 seed.
Denver had its wake-up call early in this series. Now the Nuggets just have to put the Heat to sleep for good. Two more wins and Jokic can add another milestone to his insanely illustrious career. The first one comes on Friday.
Prediction: Nuggets 111, Heat 106. The Nuggets (-3.5) cover the spread, with the game going OVER the total (210.5).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 4: Nikola Jokic to make his first field goal attempt (-185)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up
BetMGM has yet to list its full array of player props, so for now we'll pull the trigger on this signature bet. After dropping a 40-burger on the Heat in Game 2 but tallying only four assists, Joker went back to doing it all for Denver in Game 3. That meant pounding the glass, putting on his playmaking shoes, and creating for others early and often. The two-time MVP rarely forces anything and always seems intent on getting the Nuggets out to a good offensive rhythm. Any shot he takes at the start of Game 4 will likely be a high-percentage one, either near the hoop or against a smaller defender in a mismatch. We'll add a player prop over/under once they get listed, but for now, we're content with smash-betting this prop despite the juice.
