The countdown to the 2023 NBA Draft has shifted from days to hours, and the closer we get to Victor Wembanyama walking across the stage, the more the odds shorten up for the favorite at each pick. Bettors have been scouring BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and other major sportsbooks for value, but the proverbial pickings are getting slim. However, one prop — DraftKings' "Top 5 exact order" — offers up an appealing combination of win probability and plus odds.
At this point, even "Top 3 exact order" is heavily juiced. Wemby to the Spurs at No. 1 is -20000, perhaps the biggest draft-day lock since LeBron James to the Cavaliers 20 years ago. ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski said on Tuesday night that "Brandon Miller further solidified his standing as Charlotte's choice at No. 2," adding that Michael Jordan watched Miller in person and sat down with the Alabama standout. Now he's at -400 to go second, and G-League Ignite star Scoot Henderson is -280 to go No. 3 to the Blazers. The top three has never really been up for debate, and now it seems the exact order is also set in stone (or at least slowly hardening in the kiln).
The odds for the trifecta, or correctly betting Wemby, Miller, and Scoot to go 1-2-3, are -300. That's a 75-percent implied probability and just under a $17 profit if you wager $50. Plain and simple, there is no value in a prop juiced that heavily — especially considering every pick after No. 1 seems to be available for trade at the right price. We also have to account for all the smoke that's still clearing from Woj-bomb duds last year.
MORE NBA DRAFT:
Mock draft | Big Board | Best bets for each of the top 10 picks | Top props
Need your memory jogged? Woj said Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero at 1-2-3 was "increasingly firm" less than 12 hours before last year's draft, only to walk it back and swap No. 1 and No. 3 right before the Magic took Banchero. We still don't know exactly how the game's most prolific news-breaker got caught up and used as a pawn in the biggest smokescreen in modern draft history, but we're well aware of the ramifications the whole ordeal had on the odds, sportsbooks, and the betting community. To put it bluntly without being vulgar, it was a poop-show, and it taught us a valuable lesson about the fact that nothing is certain on draft night until the names are called.
That being said, we have been studying this draft top to bottom for months, and we have a ton of new information to back up our best guesses as to who will go in the top five in exact order. Since that's what we feel presents our best available option for securing draft-night betting value, that's what we're doing.
So, let's go over DraftKings' list of "Top 5 exact order" bets and odds, discuss how we will approach this niche prop, and explain why we think this avenue provides us with the best odds to win some money on Thursday night.
NBA Draft 2023 "Top 5 exact order": Odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. For clarity, Amen Thompson = "Amen," Ausar Thompson = Ausar
| V. Wembanyama, B. Miller, S. Henderson, Amen, J. Walker | +300 |
| V. Wembanyama, B. Miller, S. Henderson, Amen, C. Whitmore | +300 |
| V. Wembanyama, B. Miller, S. Henderson, Amen, Ausar | +400 |
| V. Wembanyama, B. Miller, S. Henderson, Whitmore, Amen | +800 |
| V. Wembanyama, S. Henderson, B. Miller, Amen, Whitmore | +800 |
| V. Wembanyama, S. Henderson, B. Miller, Amen, Ausar | +1500 |
| V. Wembanyama, B. Miller, S. Henderson, Whitmore, Ausar | +1600 |
| V. Wembanyama, S. Henderson, B. Miller, Whitmore, Ausar | +1800 |
| V. Wembanyama, B. Miller, S. Henderson, Ausar, Amen | +2000 |
| V. Wembanyama, S. Henderson, B. Miller, Ausar, Amen | +2000 |
Why "Top 5 exact order" yields value
We already discussed the fact that the top three picks are all juiced on their own, which is strong evidence that Wemby-Miller-Scoot appears to be a lock unless a trade napalms everything. According to ESPN's Jeremy Woo, Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson — widely considered the most talented overall prospect outside of the top three — "looks increasingly like the front-runner" at No. 4 to the Rockets after impressing at his Houston workouts and team execs becoming "enamored" with him. Amen is now at -220 to be the fourth name called.
Now, if you were to parlay Wemby's odds to go No. 1, Miller's odds to go No. 2, Scoot's odds to go No. 3, and Amen's odds to go No. 4, you would only stand to profit $48 on a $100 bet if all four of those player picks hit. In contrast, if you were to bet and hit on either of the favorite "Top 5 exact order" props — both at +300 — you would make $300. Basically, you're increasing your potential profit margin by over six times just by adding the fifth pick into the mix.
It's also worth noting that if you individually bet on one of the favorites to get picked fifth — Jarace Walker at +170, Ausar Thompson at +225, or Cam Whitmore at +250 — you would also be in line for much less of a payout than either "Exact 5 order" prop at +300. So, opting to bet on the exact order of the first five is the best bet you can make related to any of the top five picks. All we have to do is pinpoint the Pistons' most likely draft-day choice.
Why hedging "Top 5 exact" bets could help guarantee a double-up
One of the reasons we feel so confident about our chances of making some money on this exotic prop offering is that two different top-five orders sit with +300 odds — and both of those exact orders are the ones we view as the most likely result. Let's take another look at each:
- Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Jarace Walker (+300)
- Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore (+300)
As we've said multiple times, we feel strongly that the top four is set in stone as long as nobody throws Paul George, Damian Lillard, or Zion Williamson at Charlotte, Portland, or Houston in a blockbuster. That basically leaves three options for us at No. 5: Walker, Whitmore, and Ausar Thompson. Now, let's talk about why I'm willing to cut Ausar out of top-five consideration.
MORE: Amen or Ausar: Which Thompson twin will be picked first?
The Overtime Elite MVP and younger twin (by minutes) to Amen, Ausar is almost halfway through his 20th year on Earth while Walker is 19 and Whitmore is 18. Ausar is also coming out of an alternate pro league in OE that features six teams comprised of kids from 16-20 years of age. Call me crazy, but the talent gap between a league filled with teenagers and the NBA seems like it would be vastly larger than the talent gap between NCAA hoops and the NBA.
Ausar also has qualities that both Villanova's Whitmore and Houston's Walker possess — athleticism, strength, explosiveness, and defense — but he arguably doesn't do any individual thing profoundly better than either of the W's. It could be argued that Ausar has a better handle and can pass slightly better than Whitmore, but those are both traits that Ausar's twin bro Amen is better known for. Plus, Whitmore won't need to pass much with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey in the Pistons' backcourt. We also think Monty Williams, the highest-paid NBA coach of all time, can figure out how to get the best of the Villanova forward.
Ausar can't shoot as well as Whitmore, and he's not as physically strong or defensively gifted as Walker. So, whereas Whitmore might be the pick for Williams, Walker might be the preferred choice in GM Troy Weaver's build. He has historically opted for big, strong defenders in the front court, and Walker is 6-8, 240 pounds with a 7-2 wingspan. Considering the upsides yielded by Whitmore's scoring and Walker's defense — not to mention the fact that each is coming out of highly respected college programs as opposed to a six-team academy of teens — we're removing Ausar from consideration at No. 5 with confidence.
That opens up an option that few people realize is worth exploring in this sort of situation: hedging. Hedging is basically betting on each of two different outcomes to ensure a profit. This practice is typically exercised by parlay bettors when all but one leg has hit. Since a big payout is guaranteed if that last leg hits, putting a moderate wager on the opposite of that leg would 100-percent guarantee a profit one way or another.
Well, in this case, we can say with some confidence that if we bet on either of these exact five orders, one will hit. A $50 bet on each would cost us $100 total and make us $100 profit if either hit. A $100 bet on each would cost us $200 total and net us a $400 payout. A $500 stake on each would cost us $1,000 but give us a $2,000 payday (but please, don't put a G down unless you're bankrollin' with Elon bucks).
Final piece of betting advice
Monitor NBA Twitter between now and tonight, as we all know by now that a lot can change in a matter of 12 hours. If one of either Whitmore or Walker emerges as an even stronger candidate Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, maybe you'll want to put $70 on the stronger candidate and $30 on the hedge prospect. If Ausar, Taylor Hendricks, or Anthony Black suddenly enter the conversation, you might opt to just nix this exotic prop altogether and bet on an individual draft pick or exotic prop elsewhere.
The NBA Draft and the days leading up to it are about as fluid as anything in professional sports, and betting odds on the draft market are similarly ever-changing. We need to continue monitoring odds, scouring for value, and using research to make informed decisions just like GMs will be doing on Thursday night. We all want the most bang for our buck and to pinpoint a guaranteed winner. The more we dig and the better we get at increasing our win probabilities, the more success we will have in the long run.
