In tonight's Game 6 tilt between the Lakers (-2.5) and Warriors, each team will be looking to do something that's never been done before. Steph Curry and the Warriors are hoping to keep alive the dream of becoming the first team to come back from a 3-1 series deficit against LeBron James and win. LeBron's Lakers are looking to become the first Western Conference team to eliminate Golden State in the playoffs in the Steve Kerr era. Let's break down this pivotal game from a betting perspective and provide our prediction, best bets, and favorite player props for what could be another classic.
To nobody's surprise, the Warriors won Game 5 at Chase Center convincingly. Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green combined for 72 points, and the defending champions posted shooting splits of 51/37/93. Perhaps even more important: A whopping 29 of Golden State's 47 made field goals were assisted.
The Warriors also dominated the glass, especially after Lakers star Anthony Davis got whacked in the head and appeared to suffer a concussion or migraine-like symptoms on the sidelines. Golden State won the rebounding battle 48-38, marking just the second time all series that the Dubs out-boarded L.A.
Yet, the Warriors are getting just 2.5 points on the road down 3-2 to LeBron James, the man who holds the NBA Playoffs record for most postseason wins and points and will pass Derek Fisher for all-time series wins if L.A. seals the deal tonight.
Will Darvin Ham's Lakers get it done at the Crypto and finally put the cagey reigning champs to rest, or will Golden State force a Game 7 and continue its run at becoming the 13th team to rebound from a 3-1 deficit? Let's dive into the odds, trends, and picks.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
Lakers vs. Warriors Game 6 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Lakers -2.5 (-115) | Warriors +2.5 (-105)
- Total: OVER 220.5 (-105) | UNDER 220.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Lakers -150 | Warriors +125
We recently wrote about how sportsbooks and bettors have been treading cautiously with the series. L.A. didn't get too much credit despite its 3-1 advantage, and the Warriors garnered seemingly unprecedented respect as a six-seed. We're seeing more of the same here. As a +125 to win this game straight up, Golden State has an implied win probability of nearly 45 percent. The Dubs aren't even getting three points in an elimination game on the road!
But who can blame BetMGM? Curry has a postseason series record of 23-4, and the Warriors are now 7-0 under Kerr when facing elimination in the playoffs against a Western Conference team. It's insane to think about, but the only time Kerr's Warriors were eliminated in postseason play by a Western Conference team was in the 2021 Play-In Tournament when they lost to the Lakers and Grizzlies.
So yeah, good luck slaying that beast, LeBron. The Splash Brothers are one of the most difficult duos to contain in NBA history, especially when "Game 6 Klay" Thompson comes to life. When Green starts playing more aggressively, dictating the pace and knocking down open shots, things get even more difficult for opponents. Two-way x-factor Andrew Wiggins serves as a cherry on top, but be sure to monitor Wiggins' status closely, as he's been deemed "questionable" due to a rib injury. AD, meanwhile, has been listed as "probable" with his head injury.
With or without Wiggins and AD, this evening seems almost like an unstoppable force meeting an unmovable object. We're seeing two of the most dominating modern-day players in the sport exchanging haymakers in a desperate clash that both sides view as a must-win. While L.A. needs just one win over the next two games, it certainly doesn't want to go back to Chase Center where the reigning champs are 37-10 this season.
Golden State won Game 5 by 15 points despite Curry shooting an almost-pedestrian (for him) 3-of-11 from long-range and Thompson scoring just 10 points. Kerr's insertion of Gary Payton II into the Dubs' starting lineup continues to pay off, as the young defensive stud and offensive energizer finished as a game-high +25. Wiggins shot 55/40/100 and had some key defensive possessions against LeBron, and Dray knocked down seven-of-11 shots while keeping his foot on the gas defensively and on the boards.
If the Splash Brothers can chip in just 35 points and Golden State can still win a game down 3-1, look out below if they turn it on tonight at the Crypto. These Warriors may have stunk on the road during the regular season, but they had two huge wins in enemy territory during their opening-round tilt with the scrappy Kings. Those victories came in Games 5 and 7 at Golden 1 Center, which has become one of the more raucous arenas in the Association.
Of course, it's worth mentioning that Golden State has lost five consecutive games to the Lakers at the Crypto. We expect both squads to get after it defensively, so we'll smash the UNDER of 220.5. The UNDER has gone 89-65 in Game 6 affairs since the 2005 NBA Playoffs.
As for the winner, how can we bet against the defending champions!? Even when they were down 3-1, the consensus amongst NBA fans, bettors, and sportsbooks was that the Dubs could still win this series. You won't be able to find too many shocked by Kerr's squad if they knot the series at three — awed maybe, but not shocked.
Prediction: Warriors 112, Lakers 106. The Warriors win (+2.5, +125) and the game stays slightly UNDER the total (220.5).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Lakers vs. Warriors: Klay Thompson OVER 21.5 points (-125)
MORE: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
We expect the legend of "Game 6 Klay" to continue this evening, with Thompson stepping up and rebounding big time from his poor offensive effort in Game 5. He finished Games 1 and 2 with 25 and 30 points, respectively, but has just 11 field goals combined across Games 3, 4, and 5. We don't see these struggles extending to a fourth consecutive game considering his track record for coming up huge when the Dubs are either up 3-2 or down 3-2. His three-point percentage across 14 Game 6 contests is 45.8, and we all remember Klay's 41-point offensive explosion in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. Thompson went nuclear and poured in 11 three-pointers and 19 points in the fourth quarter alone. The Warriors overcame an eight-point deficit to win that game, and the legend was born. A strong word of advice: Don't bet against the legend.
