To repeat recent history and get back to the NBA Finals for the second year in a row, the Boston Celtics (+1.5) will have to make history by being the first team to ever win a series after starting in a 3-0 hole.
It's a tall task — especially for a team with a rookie head coach (Joe Mazzulla) going against future Hall-of-Famers in Miami coach Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler, the latter of whom has been the best player in the East this postseason.
Winning four games in a row — two on the road — is beyond improbable, but first things first: what are the odds of Boston avoiding the sweep and sending the Eastern Conference Finals back to Boston for a Game 5?
Let's look at the odds for Game 4 of Heat-Celtics (8:30 p.m., TNT) and go over some betting trends before revealing our final score prediction, best bets, and BetMGM player props.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -1.5 (-115) | Heat +1.5 (-105)
- Total: OVER 216.5 (-110) | UNDER 216.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -120 | Heat +100
The Celtics finally have a realistic spread, but it might be too little, too late for Boston backers. The defending Eastern Conference champs looked not just overmatched in Game 3, but they also looked like they had quit on their coach. The defense was atrocious. The offense was worse. The same franchise that got to the NBA Finals by moving the ball, hitting clutch shots, and stifling opponents defensively was stagnant, bricking low-percentage shots, and giving Miami free looks from everywhere on the court.
"Heat Culture" has never looked better, as Erik Spoelstra is not just getting MVP-caliber play from Jimmy Butler and DPOY-like energy from Bam Adebayo, but he's often getting All-Star-level contributions from undrafted players like Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Max Strus. The Heat, like the Nuggets out West, are proving that a cohesive, well-coached team with solid role players around one main catalyst can knock out a superteam.
This Miami squad often reminds us of the Pistons of the early 2000s — scrappy, solid, and not afraid of the moment. Boston, meanwhile, has been soft, passive, and lacking the confidence to fight back. Rookie coach Joe Mazzulla's postgame comments about a disconnect suggest that things are even worse than they have looked. If he can't communicate a game plan or a way out of this, how can any of us expect his team to punch back when it's against the ropes?
Before Game 3, we pointed to the Celtics' NBA-best record following a loss this season and their strong postseason road record over the past two years, but as bettors, we must adjust our expectations when new trends develop. In the playoffs, we need to constantly trim sample sizes to correctly assess a game.
Boston is now 20-12 following a loss dating back to the start of the regular season but just 3-3 following a loss this postseason. Throw that trend out the window. The Celts were 25-16 on the road this season and 8-4 on the road in the 2022 playoffs, but they're just 4-3 away from TD Garden this postseason. Throw that trend out the window, too.
The Heat are now 6-0 at Kaseya Center this postseason. Now that's a trend we can get behind. They are taking much better care of the basketball, with 31 total turnovers through three games compared to Boston's 45. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, in particular, have been abysmal as ball-handlers, and neither can get away from the three-point shot despite JT shooting just 25 percent from deep and JB shooting 10 percent. They are a combined 7-of-40 from long range.
Jimmy friggin' Butler, however, has been fantastic — capable of dictating the flow of each game and maintaining the offensive rhythm every step of every game. Throw double-teams at him tonight and he'll simply swing the ball to the open shooter. Miami is shooting 47.8 percent from distance this series. Try to do a zone or box-and-one and it will expose the Celtics and their lack of execution even worse.
This one's over, folks. There is one thing that betting trends and advanced stats can't tell you that the naked eye of a seasoned hoops fan can: effort. These Celtics looked unmotivated to fight back and take a game, never mind the series. You can back them +1.5 — in their defense, they have won five straight games as +1.5 to two-point underdogs — but this version of the Celtics is about as lame a duck as we have seen in the playoffs since the Kyrie Irving days. We're going with the Heat.
Prediction: Heat 111, Celtics 106. The Heat win and cover (-1.5) with the OVER hitting by a hair (216.5). Bet Boston at -0.5 in the first half if you have the stones, but don't expect them to stay together throughout all four quarters. Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals has looked like the worst second-half team in the playoffs, a take that only Timberwolves fans could argue.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Heat vs. Celtics: Jimmy Butler OVER 5.5 assists (-155)
The Celtics will likely throw whatever they can at Butler, which almost certainly will not work. Miami isn't on the verge of yet another NBA Finals berth solely because of Jimmy Buckets' shooting — he also has tremendous vision and playmaking at just about every segment of big games. Double him up and he'll burn you by hitting the open shooter. Send a help defender when he burns someone on the drive and he'll hit the open back-cutter or lob it to Bam under the basket. With the Heat shooting 52 percent from the floor and 48 percent from deep, how can we doubt his ability to hit six assists? He has 19 dimes through three games, so the average is already there, and the expected narrative lines up nicely. Smash the OVER.
