Seemingly all postseason long, the Celtics have been making things harder on themselves. Facing a 2-0 deficit after suffering their fourth and fifth home losses of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, tonight's Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals might be the most difficult test of the year for the defending champions of the East. Today we will discuss the odds of a bounce-back effort from the Celtics (-3.5), as well as the best bets and top player props for this pivotal playoff battle.
While BetMGM and other sportsbooks have given the reigning conference champions the benefit of the doubt as -3.5 favorites with a -175 moneyline (which translates to an over 63 percent implied win probability), the majority of Celtics fans know the chips are stacked against their squad.
In the nearly 40-year-old history of the NBA's 2-2-1-1-1 best-of-seven format, only 22 teams out of 248 have come back to win after losing the first two games of a playoff series. And only four teams have ever won a postseason series after losing Games 1 and 2 at home.
MORE: Has a team ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit? | 2011 NBA Redraft: Butler or Kawhi?
The Heat, meanwhile, continue to take the NBA world by storm — even though the NBA world continues to downplay their status as a contender. Even after going into enemy territory at TD Garden and taking each of the first two games of this series, BetMGM had the Celtics favored to win the series and gave them +150 odds to win the NBA Finals. Miami's updated NBA Finals odds after the smoke cleared from Game 2: +800.
That's pretty wild, considering the Heat are 10-3 against the spread this playoffs and have won 11 of their past 14 postseason games total (including the play-in victory over Chicago that punched Miami's ticket to the playoffs). Since 2020, Erik Spoelstra's squad has won an NBA-best 35 playoff wins (Boston ranks second with 33, in case you were wondering. No other team has 30 in that span).
Jimmy Butler, to nobody's surprise, has been the main catalyst. Many regard Butler's 2023 playoff run as one of the best individual runs in recent postseason memory. He's doing it all for Miami, and like every true superstar before him, he's making everyone around him better every step of the way.
In Game 1, Jimmy Buckets led the way with 35 points but he added seven assists, and a whopping six different Heat players finished with 15-plus points. Butler has 36 dimes across the Heat's past five games, yet he has not turned the ball over more than three times once in that span. In fact, Butler has turned the ball over more than three times just once across 12 starts this postseason. His assist-to-turnover ratio over the past two weeks: 3.6. His PER in that span: 30.4.
Tied the NBA record with 6 players scoring 15+ in a playoff game. Balanced attack 👌 pic.twitter.com/RTAlSoOAxR
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) May 18, 2023
Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla probably suffers from nightmares over two quarters in particular. In Game 1, the Heat poured in an incredible 46 points in the third quarter on 65 percent shooting and 6-of-9 from beyond the three-point line. In Game 2, Miami scored 36 in the final frame despite Duncan Robinson accounting for the Heat's only two treys in the quarter. Many Green-teamers point to one play in particular that turned the tables of the game and flipped a switch for Miami.
Celtics role player Grant Williams — largely out of Boston's rotation for most of the postseason — got into it with Butler after Williams hit a three to put the C's up 96-87 with a little under seven minutes left. On the very next possession, Butler scored an and-one on Williams and the two went nose-to-nose before Butler went to the free throw line. One offensive possession later, Butler cut Boston's lead to four. A couple possessions later, he tied the game. Then, naturally, he scored the go-ahead basket with 2:33 left. Miami never trailed again.
MORE HEAT-CELTICS: Jimmy Butler-Grant Williams trash talk leads to Heat comeback
Butler wasn't the only reason Miami won — nor was Williams the only one who choked for Boston. Caleb Martin, a three-and-D extraordinaire, played an outstanding part of the W, as did All-Star and perennial All-Defensive selection Bam Adebayo and revived sharpshooter Duncan Robinson. But Williams poked the bear, and Butler made him pay.
"We got some dogs," Butler said after the victory, the type of line you rarely hear from Jayson Tatum after a great individual effort. The Clutch Player of the Year candidate just logged 27 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and three steals to lead a massive comeback win, and this first word out of his mouth was "we."
Now we have a Celtics team that has been better on the road (4-2) going into Kaseya Center, where the Heat have won all five of their playoff games. Let's dive into the odds for this pivotal Game 3 tilt of the Eastern Conference Finals, and make our best bets and top player prop selections for Heat-Celtics.
MORE BETTING: Get odds, spreads, props, & parlays at BetMGM!
Celtics vs. Heat Game 3 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -3.5 (-115) | Heat +3.5 (-105)
- Total: OVER 214.5 (-110) | UNDER 214.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -175 | Heat +145
Some bettors are probably thinking this spread is nuts — Boston just blew a tire in the second half of two straight home playoff games, the Celtics backs are against the ropes, Jimmy Butler looks like MJ Jr., and Miami's getting 3.5 points at home in Game 3!? But let's go back to the 2022 NBA Playoffs, when the road team won five out of seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals. And Boston's MO the past two postseasons has been winning on enemy soil.
The Celtics are 4-2 on the road this postseason and just 4-5 at home. Last year — despite a friggin' NBA Finals run — Boston was just 6-6 at TD Garden compared to 8-4 on the road. Maybe Celtics majority owner Wyc Grousbeck should figure out a way to fly a few thousand Heat fans up to TD Garden if and when Boston survives to see a Game 5 back home.
The woeful home stats notwithstanding, Boston always seems to find a way to bounce back. They have gone 4-2 following a loss this postseason and they have an NBA-best 20-11 record following a defeat since the start of the 2022-23 regular season.
Still, Mazzulla's squad has let us down against the spread so much this year that we have to take pause. Just take a look at Boston's record vs. its ATS record when favored on the road by between three and five points:
| Win-loss record straight up | 9-3 |
| Against the spread cover rate | 5-6-1 |
Simply put, we can't trust these Celtics as far as we can throw them — especially with Joe Mazzulla at the helm against Erik Spoelstra. Even casual NBA observers can tell that Spo has coached circles around Johnston Joe during the first two games of this series — Hell, Quin Snyder and Doc Rivers out-coached Mazzulla in the first two rounds, despite Snyder joining the ATL 54 games into the regular season and Rivers just days away from getting canned (Rivers' dismissal came just days after Philly's Game 7 loss to Boston). As we all know at this point, NBA teams can win best-of-seven series despite poor coaching.
But that's not typically the case in conference championships, certainly not with a rookie head coach going against a future Hall-of-Fame coach who studied under Pat Riley before becoming one of the best in the biz. Spoelstra always seems to get the best out of each one of his players (with the sole exception of Cody Zeller, maybe — because woof). Undrafted guys, second-rounders, guys who the vast majority of the NBA universe considered washed-up or over the hill — you name 'em, they've stepped up for Spo.
We do like the Celtics to bounce back and win tonight, but we're playing it safer than ever with the spread. Whereas Boston's ATS record when favored by 3-5 points on the road this season is 5-6-1, it jumps up to 4-2 ATS on the road when the Celts are favored by 1-2. Dating back to 2017 — the beginning of the Jayson Tatum era in Boston — the C's have gone 18-11-1 ATS when favored by 1-2 on the road.
So, you have two options: bet the Celtics' -175 moneyline and take on some juice, or buy two points and bet them at -1.5 for a little less vig at -155. And at this point, we're also pretty confident in the OVER, which has hit in four of the six meetings between these squads since the start of the regular season. Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and company will likely be pushing the tempo and keeping the pedal to the metal this evening — we can at least expect four quarters of effort now that they're away from the TD Garden — whether it looks good, bad, or ugly in the second half remains to be seen.
Prediction: Celtics 111, Heat 108. The Celtics win but the Heat cover the spread (+3.5) and the game goes OVER the total (214.5). Bet Boston at -1.5 (-155) or Miami at +5.5 (-135), and consider the Celts at -1.5 in the first quarter (-110).
Best BetMGM player prop bet for Celtics vs. Heat: Jimmy Butler OVER 5.5 assists (-135)
MORE BETTING: Get odds, spreads, props, & parlays at BetMGM!
We're expecting Mazzulla and the Celtics to throw everything but the kitchen sink at Butler defensively today, and the result will likely be even more assists for the future Hall-of-Famer. He has six-plus dimes in four of Miami's past five games, and his scoring totals in Game 1 and 2 were 35 and 27, respectively. If Boston limits Butler to 25 tonight, it will be a success — but it's almost impossible to limit his scoring and contain his passing. He has tremendous vision and always seems to find the open shooters, who have been excellent in their own right all postseason. We have Butler projected at 25 points, eight assists, eight rebounds, and three steals tonight, so enjoy the easy OVER with his assist total.
