The second-seeded Celtics look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the third-seeded 76ers at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Philly has gone from stealing home-court in Game 1 to looking completely overmatched since, and many have begun whispering about a potential gentleman's sweep of MVP Joel Embiid and three-time scoring champ James Harden. Today we will break down the odds for the all-important Game 4 and reveal our final score prediction, best bets, and favorite SuperDraft picks.
Harden turned back the hands of time in the series opener, dropping 45 points including the game-winning triple at the end of regulation while Embiid rested his sprained LCL. But in the two games since, Harden has faded back into obscurity with Embiid back on the court. The Celtics have outscored the Sixers 235-189 and often look like the varsity guys going up against a JV squad.
Game 3 was a particularly convincing beatdown by the reigning Eastern Conference champions. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, widely believed to be the best two-way perimeter duo in the NBA, combined for 50 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists, Boston's core six scorers accounted for 110 of the Celtics' 114 points. The threes were flying — both teams knocked down 16 treys — but Joe Mazzulla's squad made one too many timely passes, clutch shots, and key defensive stops for Philly to handle.
If Harden can't get back into All-Star form — never mind the All-NBA performance we saw from him in Game 1 — Philadelphia stands no chance of leveling this series up. And if both Harden and Tyrese Maxey continue to struggle (they combined to shoot 7-of-30 in Game 3, 15-of-54 the last two games) — leaving a banged-up Embiid and a limited supporting cast of Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, De'Anthony Melton, and Georges Niang to do their bidding — this series might wrap at the TD Garden in Game 5.
The Celtics have arguably the best seven-man rotation in hoops, and the chemistry among them was clear as day on Friday night. Tatum and Brown were taking smart shots and knocking down superstar jumpers when the pressure was at its highest. When Philly converged on them with double-team blitzes, they kicked to an open teammate for an open trey. When man defense closed out on them too tightly, they blew by their defender, attracted help D, and kicked out to the open shooter. Shower, rinse, repeat.
If the Celtics could bottle up their Game 3 energy and sprinkle it across 10 more games this postseason, Banner 18 will be raised into the TD Garden rafters this June. When Boston is at its best, its opponents look their worst in the big moments. The key question: can Mazzulla continue to get that maximum effort out of his squad? Time and time again, the Celts have squandered massive opportunities and squandered huge competitive advantages by taking their foot off the gas and letting the opposing team back into it.
Will Boston turn another page as a team and smash the Sixers into a 1-3 series hole? Or will MVP Embiid and former MVP Harden elevate their games under pressure and fight their way back into the series Rocky Balboa-style? Below we will break down Sunday afternoon's 76ers-Celtics tilt, providing our prediction, best bets, and SuperDraft prop selections for Game 4 of this Eastern Conference semifinals.
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76ers vs. Celtics odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -2.5 (-105) | 76ers +2.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 213.5 (-105) | UNDER 213.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Celtics -140 | 76ers +115
We completely understand why oddsmakers have listed the defending Eastern Conference champs as -2.5 favorites on the road. Without Harden's superhuman Game 1 effort, Philly is staring into the eyes of an 0-3 deficit right now. And if not for JoJo playing incredible defense and Georges Niang going nuclear in the second-half of Game 3, Philly would have gotten blown out of that Wells Fargo tilt altogether.
What we're seeing — and what sportsbooks are likely considering with their linemaking — is the result of a perfect storm of variables all rolling into one:
- Embiid's injury clearly has him at 75 percent (or maybe less), especially around the rim offensively.
- Harden has been miserable, and Maxey hasn't been much better.
- The Jays are playing some of their best team ball of the season on both sides of the floor.
- Boston has exerted its tenacity, lockdown D, strong passing, and timely shot-making.
- With all seven core-rotation Celtics playing like legit playoff starter-worthy NBA talents, there is no let-up from the Green-teamers.
One of my buddies and fellow lifelong Celtics fans said after Boston lost to Atlanta in Game 5: "That Celtics loss was infuriating. However, believe it or not, that was probably a good thing…" A couple of us pushed back, arguing that having to travel back to Atlanta — not to mention giving Embiid and the Sixers extra time to rest the MVP's LCL and prepare for the Celtics — was certainly not a good thing. But now that Boston blew that game — and got upset in Game 1 of this series — my buddy looks to have hit the nail on the head. Those losses are wake-up calls, and they are certainly better to happen earlier in the playoffs than later.
Meanwhile, the Sixers don't appear to ever wake up from their nightmarish big-game blunders. When the pressure had reached fever pitch in Game 3, P.J. Tucker got whistled for a five-second violation on an in-bound. Harden had a late opportunity to give the Sixers the lead, but he bricked a step-back. Philly had 13 turnovers, five of which came from Harden. Key defensive possessions became fouls committed and/or big buckets allowed. Doc Rivers, once again, did not have his team ready to rise to the occasion.
The pressure has only become higher, and in Philadelphia that does not bode well for players who look scared or unprepared for the big moment. The Celtics have ice in their veins — from the Jays to 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart to 2023 Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and veteran stud Al Horford. Boston may have finally learned from its mistakes. This squad has looked like it's on a mission since the Game 1 disappointment, and we don't see them letting the MVP and his brick-laying brethren back into this series.
Prediction: Celtics 110, 76ers 105. The Celtics (-2.5) cover the spread, with the game going slightly OVER the total (213.5).
Best player prop from 76ers vs. Celtics: Tyrese Maxey OVER 19.5 points (-120)
Maxey struggled with his shot in Game 3, but at least it wasn't a confidence or aggressiveness thing like we saw with fellow Sixers Harden and Tobias Harris. Beard was actively passing up open looks three feet from the rim, looking like Ben Simmons 2.0. Harris hid in the corner, blending in with defenders outside the perimeter, taking just six shots and making three. Sorry, Sixers Nation — Harden is in his own head and Harris ain't it. That leaves Maxey as the guy who steps it up and scores 20-plus for Philly in Game 4, which I think will absolutely be the case. We have Maxey at OVER 19.5 points as our prop lock of the day.
