Tonight's series-opening clash between the Warriors and Lakers (10 p.m. ET, TNT) tips off the fifth postseason meeting between Steph Curry and LeBron James, two of the all-time greatest players of the sport with four NBA championship rings to each of their names.
The drama behind the anxiously-awaited matchup almost writes itself — and a ton of money will be bet on both sides' moneylines and spreads before the series concludes — but Curry and LeBron's player props will likely dominate the non-traditional sports betting landscape over the next two weeks.
MORE RD. 2: Warriors-Lakers Game 1 betting preview | Knicks-Heat Game 2 betting preview
Since sports betting is now legal and operational in 75 percent of the United States, player props have continued to rise in popularity. And it only makes sense that the biggest names in sports tend to draw the most prop-betting action in the market. We can only imagine what kind of action will be generated by Steph vs. LeBron, two of the biggest names in the history of sports, by the time either superstar advances to the Western Conference Finals.
MORE LEBRON-STEPH: LeBron is the GOAT — it's inarguable | LeBron vs. Steph stats
Today we will highlight our favorite player props for each of the two stars, and also briefly discuss the two most popular BetMGM props entering Game 1 of this west-coast clash.
MORE BETTING: Get the best odds, spreads, props, & parlays with BetMGM!
Steph Curry vs. LeBron James, Vol. 5: Most popular prop bets
Scoring props: Steph 31.5 points (O: -120; U: -110); LeBron 26.5 (O: -115; U: -115)
When it comes to scoring, Curry will always have the higher over/unders than LeBron at this stage of their careers. Quite simply, the Warriors rely on Steph's shooting more, while Los Angeles relies more on LeBron's playmaking abilities.
As we saw in Game 7 of the Warriors' first-round series with the Kings, Curry continues to bail Golden State out when things get stagnant offensively. He led the Warriors in scoring in all seven of the series matchups, but his Game 7 50-piece was the cherry on top. All said, Curry averaged over 33 points in the series.
In contrast, LeBron only led the Lakers in scoring in one contest of their opening-round matchup with the Grizzlies (Game 2). Anthony Davis led L.A. in scoring twice, and Rui Hachimura, D'Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves accounted for the team-high in points in each of the other three games.
It could be argued that both UNDERs offer value here — 32 points is a massive opening-game line, and remember that Curry hit that amount in just three of Golden State's seven first-round games. He only averaged 33 and change because that 50-piece inflated it from 31. Curry also averaged just 30.0 against the Lakers during the regular season.
But we don't blame you if you pound Curry's OVER — it's Steph at home in a massive Game 1 vs. the Lakers. He'll be ready to rock, and he and the troops will not want to tussle through another seven-game series.
As for LeBron, the UNDER seems like a relatively easy smash. He averaged just 22.5 points per game against the Dubs this season, and he averaged 22.1 points per game in the first round. You could bet LeBron's UNDER every game of this series and probably net a return 70-80 percent of the time.
Betting advice: Curry OVER 31.5 (-120) or no bet; LeBron UNDER 26.5 (-115)
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Assist props: Steph 5.5 (-150/+110); LeBron 5.5 (-120/-110)
LeBron always seems to rack up the assists against Golden State — he averaged eight dimes per game against the defending champions this season and his career average against the Warriors is a robust 7.1 per game despite the modern GOAT not ramping up his passing until the past few years. Still, he only surpassed five assists in two of L.A.'s six games against Memphis, while Curry reached six assists or more just three times in Golden State's seven games against Sacramento.
If we had to bet both of these over/unders, we would go Curry UNDER and LeBron OVER simply because of their current roles within their offenses and their track records against each other through the years. Steph's OVER is way too juiced for our liking, but we're equally as unenthused at the prospect of betting his UNDER (it's too close to call because we don't know just how much Steve Kerr will need him to score). LeBron's OVER feels pretty safe, though, so fire away there.
Betting advice: No action on Curry; LeBron OVER 5.5 (-120)
Rebounding props: LeBron 9.5 (-120/-115); Steph 5.5 (-120/-110)
You're getting solid value with LeBron's OVER here, as he posted rebounding totals in the Memphis series of 11, 12, nine, 20, 10, and five. Curry, meanwhile, failed to surpass five boards in all but one of the Warriors-Kings games (he pulled down seven in Game 7, naturally). Steve Kerr has his modern-day Dennis Rodman in Kevon Looney, an instinctive rim-reader with a 7-4 wingspan. Golden State's MO is to get stops, have Looney clear the glass, and outlet to one of the other four ball-handlers to initiate the fast break. The Lakers' MO much of the time is for either LeBron or AD to clear the glass and pass to the other downcourt. Both these narratives lead us to a clear picture of which way we should be betting both these over/unders.
Betting Advice: LeBron OVER 9.5 (-120); Curry UNDER 5.5 (-110)
Steph Curry vs. LeBron James, Vol. 5: Best of the rest of the props
Three-pointers made: LeBron 2.5 (+105/-135); Steph 4.5 (-160/+120)
Talk about interesting — BetMGM is trying to bait us into betting LeBron's OVER and Steph's UNDER. We're not taking the bait on either. James shot just 8-of-41 from beyond the arc in the Memphis series, and only reached three triples in Game 1. He had one game with two treys, three games with one, and one game with zero. Steph, on the other hand, had five or more three-balls in five of Golden State's seven first-round contests. You can juice Curry all the way up to -190 and we're still pounding the OVER on him exceeding 4.5 threes in the playoffs.
Betting advice: LeBron UNDER 2.5 (-135); Steph OVER 4.5 (-160)
Turnovers: LeBron 2.5; Steph 2.5 (both -185/+135)
Interesting that both stars' turnover props are the exact same lines with the exact same odds. When a sportsbook juices up players OVERs and lists plus odds for their UNDERs, it's basically a free tip. But you're still taking on volatility by betting a prop that yields just $54 profit on a $100 stake. If you like giving yourself an above-average chance of winning but taking down a below-average profit, bet both their OVERs here. Hell, you could even parlay them in a One Game Parlay and drastically reduce the juice that way.
Betting advice: Parlay both OVERs at -185
Steph Curry vs. LeBron James, Vol. 5: Most heavily-bet props
Stephen over 31.5 points (-120); LeBron James over 5.5 assists (-120)
According to BetMGM, Curry's points OVER and LeBron's assists OVER comprise two of the three most popular bets going into Game 1 Tuesday evening. The only prop more heavily-bet that those two: Jordan Poole OVER 12.5 points (-110). Yuck! Poole has been terrible basically all postseason — we would much rather bet on the OVERs for two of the modern GOATS of the game and root for a slugfest between Steph and LeBron.
