The top six seeds in the Eastern and Western Conferences have the opportunity to rest up and prepare for their opening-round playoff matchups this weekend. For the Raptors and Bulls, who tip off in the NBA Play-In Tournament on Wednesday (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN), the postseason has already begun. Toronto and Chicago, the ninth and 10th seeds of the East, respectively, will be battling to win two games and sneak into the playoffs as the East's No. 8 seed. Let's discuss our favorite under-the-radar player props from the Raptors and Bulls play-in game, tipping you off to the best non-traditional betting value you can find on BetMGM.
The lower seeds of the top 10 in the East have it rough. The winner of this game will face the loser of the game between Miami and Atlanta on Friday night. That sounds exhausting enough, but even if one of these Cinderella squads makes it out of that gauntlet alive, it must then travel to Milwaukee to face the top-seeded Bucks in a best-of-seven series starting Sunday.
The Raptors and Bulls have been battling of late, and both seem to have the toughness and grit to make a meaningful run. As we mentioned in our betting guide for Wednesday's tilt, we will be leaning toward Toronto. The Raps have gone 16-4 straight up and 15-4-1 since Jan. 8. But both squads feature elite perimeter talent and big, bruising, board-banging centers. This one could be an instant classic.
MORE RAPTORS-BULLS: Odds, picks, predictions
If you don't enjoy betting the traditional moneyline or spread in closely contested contests, player prop betting could be a worthwhile avenue for you to explore. That way, you're not staring down the scoreboard nervously at all times but rather rooting for certain players or teams to reach or not reach certain stat points. Let's roll out our favorite props from Raptors-Bulls and discuss why each under-the-radar bet yields value to bettors.
MORE ODDS: Spreads, moneylines, props, parlays -- get it all with BetMGM!
Raptors vs. Bulls: Best under-the-radar player prop bets
Pascal Siakam to have a double-double (+165)
Everyone and their mother will probably be betting on Siakam's teammate Jakob Poeltl to have a double-double (+170), but the fact is Poeltl has not logged one in five April starts. Now, he's going against one of the better rebounders in the NBA in Bulls big Nikola Vucevic. So, we'll let them battle it out on the interior and sneakily cash in on Siakam walking away from tomorrow's game with 10-plus points and 10-plus boards.
Siakam has seven double-dubs since March 16 and two in his past three games. He's averaging 26.3 points and 8.8 assists per game in April. He also has double-doubles in three of Toronto's past seven postseason contests. We also know that Nick Nurse rides his studs in the playoffs. Spicy P averaged 45 minutes per game in the Raptors' past four postseason games. Across the three games in which Siakam logged more than 43 minutes this season, he averaged 29 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 8.3 assists. He has a good chance of double-doubling and saving Toronto from a single elimination.
Nikola Vucevic UNDER 10.5 rebounds (-120)
Big Vooch's rebounding OVER will be a popular play Wednesday, as will his double-double prop at -165, but just because the big Serbian averaged 17 and 11 this season doesn't mean he's a lock to rip down 11 boards. In fact, he has only reached 11 rebounds once in the Bulls' past six games and twice in their past nine. His per-game rebounding average since the All-Star break actually finished below the double-digit mark.
Another issue is Poeltl, who wreaks havoc on opposing bigs game in and game out. In the one game Chicago played against Toronto after the Poeltl trade, Vucci Mane pored in 23 points but grabbed just five boards and dished out four assists. Ten is a distinct possibility — Vucevic has 10-plus rebounds in five or Toronto's past seven games — but 11 seems like too high a number against a hungry Toronto team that plays with physicality.
DeMar DeRozan UNDER 27.5 points + assists (-110)
When people think DeRozan, they think clutch. And when they think DeRozan in Toronto, they think revenge game and homecoming and all that fun stuff. But when you actually look at the stats and trends, you realize he's a poor bet to go OVER 27.5 points + assists.
Over Chicago's three games against the Raptors this season, the veteran point forward has averaged 14 points and 3.6 assists per game. He also went UNDER 27.5 points + assists in his last three regular-season games and in four of Chicago's five playoff games last season. Go the contrarian route and bet DD to have another underwhelming stat line against one of the better perimeter defensive teams.
Patrick Beverley OVER 1.5 steals + blocks (-130)
Pat Bev often gets described as a great defender, which almost seems laughable. Beverley regularly gets burned off the dribble and on high screen-and-rolls, he has poor team defensive awareness, and he's undersized in the post. A Pat Bev assertion I would agree with is that he's a pesky on-ball defender, almost like a relentless gnat at times, and he's very good at getting in the heads of his opponents.
Those traits have contributed to his 1.0 steals and 0.7 blocks per game across the 22 contests in which he's played since becoming a Bull. If you take a deeper look at his numbers, Beverley has averaged 1.1 steals and 0.5 across his entire career, and he always puts in extra effort in the postseason. Who could forget him celebrating like a Finals MVP after Minnesota won its Play-In Tournament game last season? Bev had two "stocks" in that game, and he has posted at least two "stocks" in seven of his past eight playoff games. Pound it!
Fred VanVleet UNDER 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Take away FVV's 20-point, 20-assist game on April 2, and you have a long run of mediocrity, at least by his standards. He has reached 31.5 points + boards + dimes just once over Toronto's past six games.
We have learned that star names will see much higher over/under totals in the playoffs even if they are struggling a bit entering the postseason. With Beverley, Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmo, and Coby White hassling VanVleet, we're confidently going against the grain and taking the UNDER here.
