The NBA constantly surprises us, especially in the playoffs. The term "unprecedented" used to be a rare drop in competitive athletics but now seems almost ubiquitous in the sporting landscape. Every week, we see historic scoring runs, epic collapses, and milestone achievements, which seems perfect for the attention-deficit, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately society of sports fans we have become.
In Wednesday evening's Game 5 between the Warriors and Lakers, viewers may once again witness yet another first. The Warriors — the NBA's reigning champions — enter the night in a 3-1 hole. If they lose, it will be the first time in the Steph Curry era that Golden State suffered a gentleman's sweep. If they win, the Dubs could go on to become just the 14th team out of 272 in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs.
A whopping 7.4 million viewers tuned into the telecast of the Warriors-Lakers' series opener on TNT, the highest cable ratings ever for a conference semifinals Game 1. Something about the game's top superstars squaring off screams 'must-see TV.' It helps that Curry, James, and Klay Thompson have numerous playoff records to their names and continue to be regarded as three of the most clutch big-game performers in recent memory.
MORE WARRIORS-LAKERS: Game 5 betting preview | SuperDraft props
How we got here, and what to expect next (besides the unexpected)
While the Lakers were not initially favored to win this series, it's not a shock that they find themselves on the brink of advancing to the Western Conference Finals. LeBron has four NBA Finals rings, has appeared in more conference championships than anyone not named Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and has the most postseason wins (181) and points (7,857) of all time. Nobody's even close to those last two records — he passed Derek Fisher 20 wins ago and left Michael Jordan in his dust over 1,850 points ago.
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LeBron's 2016 Cavaliers also hold the distinction of mounting the only comeback from a 3-1 deficit in NBA Finals history, ironically over Curry's Warriors. Never before and never again has a team won three elimination games in a row in an NBA Finals, and that was just the 11th time it had ever been done in the playoffs in general.
Since then, a 3-1 comeback has happened twice more — thanks in large part to the fantastically bizarre NBA bubble of 2020. In that September iteration of the COVID playoffs, the Nuggets came back from a 3-1 opening-round hole to beat the Jazz and a 3-1 semifinals deficit to upset the Clippers. L.A. went on to beat Denver in the Western Conference Finals and win it all that postseason, a ring some put an asterisk next to because it was in front of zero fans.
MORE: Three ways the Warriors can extend the series
All told, teams with a 3-1 postseason series advantage have a series winning percentage of .952. So, history suggests Golden State has a 4.8-percent chance of digging itself out of this sizable hole. Of course, the Warriors are unlike the other 259 teams that have failed in this scenario. Not only do the Dubs have four championships between 2015 and '22, but they also have the two most lethal postseason shooters in the history of the Association. Curry holds the all-time record with 611 career playoff triples, while Thompson ranks second with 497. LBJ, not surprisingly, ranks third with 448.
Curry also owns the best playoff series record in the history of the game. He has gone an incredible 23-4 record across his 27 postseason series, an .852 winning percentage that dwarfs the playoff series records of MJ, Kareem, Bird, Magic, Kobe, Duncan, Shaq, and yes, even LeBron. Curry's Dubs also serve as one of the 13 teams that have beaten the odds and come back from a 3-1 hole. They did it back in 2016 in the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder, before Cleveland gave them a taste of their own meds and mounted the same 3-1 comeback in the Finals.
Clearly, Golden State is not your typical series underdog. Before the beginning of Round 2, BetMGM sent us insights indicating that the Warriors and Lakers were two of the sportsbook's three biggest NBA Finals liabilities on the futures market. The seventh-seeded Lakers enjoyed the biggest jump in league championship odds, going from +2200 at the start of the postseason to +750 after knocking off the Grizzlies.
The Warriors, in contrast, saw their NBA Finals odds go longer after a tough seven-game series with Sacramento. Whereas the defending champs had been +550 at the start of the playoffs, they moved to +900 during the tilt with the Kings and +1100 ahead of the bout with the Lakers. It was a savvy move by BetMGM to give the Dubs a better payout and lure in more action. Golden State ended up drawing 9.7 percent of NBA Finals ticket percentages and nearly 15 percent of all NBA championship money, compared to L.A.'s paltry 7.5-percent ticket percentage and 6.7-percent handle.
Still, BetMGM and most sportsbooks continue to tread lightly with the Warriors, especially at home in Game 5. Golden State has gone 36-10 at Chase Center since the start of the 2022-23 NBA season, a .783 home winning percentage that trails only Denver and Memphis. Curry dropped a 50-piece in the Dubs' last elimination game against Sacramento, and that was at Golden 1 Center (talk about a beam block). He also poured in 34 points in Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals at the TD Garden to seal the Warriors' fourth championship in seven seasons. Let's just say Chef Curry has a flair for cooking up some dramatics.
The odds for Game 5 — and beyond, if necessary
The Warriors opened as -5.5 favorites to win Game 5, and bettors promptly smash-bet them to win. But once BetMGM started adjusting the lines and increasing Golden State's win probability, the public started leaning toward the Lakers. Now that Los Angeles is getting 7.5 points — seemingly unprecedented for a team up 3-1 in a series — the Lakers have a 51-percent ATS ticket percentage and represent 41 percent of the total handle. Meanwhile, L.A. has been dominating the moneyline, generating 81 percent of bets and 74 percent of the cash.
As for the series moneyline, you'd be getting +375 if you bet the Warriors to pull off the improbable and become the 14th team to ever mount a 3-1 comeback. Conversely, you would be taking on a ton of juice — -500, to be exact — if you wanted to back the Lakers to nab just one victory over the next three games and advance to the WCF.
A blank bet on this series ending in six games yields +130 odds. A bet on the series going to Game 7, regardless of the winner, yields +200. Golden State in seven, as we said, would pay out at +375. The Lakers in seven would pay out at +700. Needless to say, sportsbooks and bettors aren't expecting the Warriors to pull off two straight victories — one at home and one on the road — only to lose Game 7 at Chase Center.
Speaking of things the books and bettors aren't expecting to happen, nobody sees Steph Curry getting passed over by any other player as the series' top scorer. The shooting GOAT is currently listed as -600 to finish the series as the high scorer, with LeBron at +500 and AD at +650. Curry currently has 101 points, while LeBron has 93 and AD has 89. Curry is also the odds-on favorite to finish with the most assists in the series, sitting at -300 while Draymond Green is at +225.
The most juiced prop of them all, however, is AD to lead the series in rebounds. With a 58-38 advantage over Kevon Looney, Davis is -5000 to finish the semifinals series with the most boards, while Loon-dog Millionaire is a distant second at +1500.
If you want to take on some juice but avoid betting on the improbable, you're better off wagering on UNDER 6.5 games on the over/under for the duration of the series. That's at -250, while OVER 6.5 games is at +200. That raises the question we have been toying with all game: would you rather bet conservatively and side with the 95-plus percent chance that history will repeat itself, or would you rather go for the bigger payout and bet on Steph Curry to once again make the seemingly impossible possible?
No matter what happens, we're going into tonight expecting to see something we have never seen before, and that's a pretty cool thing for bettors, sportsbooks, and fans alike.
