Heavyweights collide when the UFC leaves the APEX Center in Las Vegas and heads to St. Louis on May 11. The event features Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento in a heavyweight headliner.
Lewis is one of the premier heavyweights in the UFC. He secured an eight-fight deal with the promotion after needing only 33 seconds to beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima at UFC 291.
While far from being a top contender, ranked 12th in the UFC heavyweight rankings, Lewis is ready to earn a win and continue to remain a relevant force.
Nascimento is a former Dana White's Contender Series alum. He's riding a three-fight win streak heading into this main event clash with the explosive Lewis. The Brazilian is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu which will make for an interesting match-up of styles between him and the power puncher Lewis.
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When heavyweights are in action, especially Lewis, anything is possible. Who has the edge in this fight? Can we expect any upsets from this fight or the rest of the main card?
With the help of Sports Interaction, the Sporting News makes predictions on the entire card at UFC St. Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento.
UFC St. Louis expert picks and predictions
Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento; Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Derrick Lewis is the -150 favorite, while Rodrigo Nascimento is the +125 underdog.
Lewis is 2-4 in his last six fights. “The Black Beast” holds the record for most knockouts (14) in UFC history, landing 2.43 significant strikes per minute. He has a 50% strike accuracy mark and absorbs 2.48 significant strikes. Nascimento lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute but has absorbed 4.76 strikes per minute.
Lewis is an enigma. He will either knock you out or get knocked out. The 39-year-old is also susceptible to takedowns, with twelve landed against him in three fights. However, there is no denying his intimidating presence, lovable personality and overall skills.
Both fighters need a win to continue to rise in the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. The 31-year-old Nascimento has slowly grown and can separate himself from a packed heavyweight division by beating Lewis. Styles make fights and Nascimento's style will be too much for Lewis. Nascimento has not ended a fight early since 2020, so expect the DWCS alum to take down and subdue Lewis for the win.
Sporting News prediction: Nascimento via unanimous decision
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Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev; Welterweights
Per Sports Interaction, Joaquin Buckley is the -165 favorite, while Nursulton Ruziboev is the +140 underdog.
Buckley is 8-4 in the octagon and the hometown favorite. On a three-fight win streak, the St. Louis-born fighter lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.40 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Ruziboev is on a ten-fight win streak (picking up eight straight wins outside of the UFC) and is 2-0 since arriving in the octagon. The Uzbek fight is a former boxer who lands 3.92 significant strikes in the octagon and has 12 wins via knockout. He is also slippery, winning 20 fights via submission. Ruziboev has not fought past the first round since 2019.
Can Ruziboev spoil Buckley’s homecoming? The simple answer is yes. Ruziboev has enough momentum and skills to plant Buckley and keep him down for good. If he can avoid Buckley's surprise counter, this will end emphatically.
Sporting News prediction: Ruziboev via TKO (round two)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg; Light Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Carlos Ulberg is the -250 favorite, while Alonzo Menifield is the +200 underdog.
Ranked eleventh at light heavyweight, Menifield is 4-0-1 in his last five fights, his last loss came back in 2021. "Atomic" lands 3.92 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy of 57% — however, he's been outlanded in his last two fights. While Menifield has a 75% takedown defense mark, he's been taken down seven times in three fights.
Ulberg is on a five-fight win streak, with his last loss in 2021. The Dana White's Contender Series standout has six wins via knockout, three of them coming in the octagon. "Black Jag" lands 7.29 significant strikes per minute, outlanding his opponents in all his octagon fights.
Ulberg’s volume could come into play here. Menifield will try and go shot for shot, but can he last? Ulberg is also known to surprise with a takedown, which could affect Menifield’s mindset on fight night. Don’t blink during this one. It could get a performance bonus.
Sporting News prediction: Ulberg via TKO (round one)
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Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki; Lightweights
Per Sports Interaction, Mateusz Rebecki is the -350 favorite, while Diego Ferreira is the +275 underdog.
Ferreira is a multi-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu medalist who lands 4.66 significant strikes per minute. However, he is 1-3 in his last four fights and has been taken down 13 times during that span. Rebecki lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute and averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes.
When it comes to strikes, Rebecki has the edge. His ability to attack the body and change levels could be the difference when these two stand. While his striking may get the attention Rebecki also has seven wins via submission. He may have the ultimate edge against Ferreira, a man susceptible to making mistakes.
Sporting News prediction: Rebecki via submission (round two)
Alex Caceres vs. Sean Woodson; Featherweights
Per Sports Interaction, Sean Woodson is the -190 favorite, while Alex Caceres is the +160 underdog.
Woodson rides a two-fight win streak where he has landed five takedowns and 151 significant strikes. He lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Caceres is 2-2 in his last four contests, landing 60 significant strikes in two straight fights. "Bruce Leeroy" lands 4.16 significant strikes per minute.
While Caceres has a takedown defense mark of 64%, Woodson's takedown game could help determine the winner. "The Sniper" can stand and bang if needed. Caceres has struggled to outstrike top opposition, and Woodson could do enough to tire him out through three rounds.
Sporting News prediction: Woodson via unanimous decision
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Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne; Heavyweights
Per Sports Interaction, Robelis Despaigne is the -210 favorite, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta is the +175 underdog.
Despaigne has turned heads since turning pro in 2022, winning all five fights via knockout. The combined time of his last four fights is 37 seconds. In his last performance, he only needed 18 seconds to take out Josh Parisian at UFC 299.
Cortes-Acosta is 5-1 in the UFC and lands 6.13 significant strikes per minute. He has faced better competition in the octagon, beating former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski in his last fight.
Despaigne is one of the most technical strikers out there. He can strike but hasn’t shown many skills at a high level outside of that. Cortes-Acosta got outstruck in significant strikes against Arlovski even though he was able to pull out a win. He can't afford to let Despaigne tee off on him.
Take Despaigne, though the fight may not end in the first round.
Sporting News prediction: Despaigne via TKO (round two)
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