A new main event headlines the UFC’s debut in Saudi Arabia on June 22. Former UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker faces Ikram Aliskerov.
Whittaker is 2-2 in his last four fights, twice failing to regain the middleweight belt against Israel Adesanya. He was supposed to fight Khamzat Chimaev, who had to back out due to illness. The winner of The Ultimate Fighter in 2012 looks to go 2-0 in 2024.
The only loss in Aliskerov’s career came against Chimaev in 2019. The seven-time Sambo gold medalist has won seven straight since that fight and is 3-0 in the octagon. The Dana White’s Contender Series standout looks to shock the world.
Who will walk out a potential contender for the UFC middleweight title? Can Whittaker return to the top, or will Aliskerov sneak a win in what would be the ultimate upset? Will there be any upsets on the main card featuring former contenders, veterans, and rising stars?
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With the help of Sports Interaction, The Sporting News makes predictions on the entire main card at UFC Saudi Arabia: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov.
UFC Saudi Arabia expert picks and predictions
Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov; Middleweights
Per Sports Interaction, Robert Whittaker is the -150 favorite, while Ikram Aliskerov is the +125 underdog.
Whittaker lands 4.57 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 42%. "The Reaper" also averages 0.81 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. In three UFC fights, Alisverov has landed 8.24 significant strikes per minute. He has a strike accuracy mark of 66%. The Russian has six wins via knockout and five via submission.
Both competitors will feel out of their element here. Whittaker is the hungry former champion, but an upset is entirely possible. Aliskerov has not faced the level of competition Whittaker has and has not competed in five-round affairs, which could give the former the edge.
The Russian could give Whittaker some trouble early, but New Zealand-born Sydneysider should adapt and outpace him in the later rounds.
Sporting News prediction: Whittaker via TKO (round four)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Alexander Volkov; Heavyweights
Sergei Pavlovich is the -225 favorite, while Alexander Volkov is the +185 underdog.
Pavlovich lands 8.21 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 48%. Former Bellator and M-1 Global heavyweight champion Volkov lands 5.10 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy mark of 57%. Pavlovich absorbs more shots per minute (4.61 compared to 3.00 for Volkov).
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The reach advantage goes to Pavlovich (four), a powerful striker. Volkov is the more complete fighter, striking while working around the whole octagon. He also can land a submission if he desires. Pavlovich will rush in to try and finish early, and Volkov can and should take advantage. Volkov could land a surprise submission or bombard Pavlovich with punches, freezing any attempted momentum his opponent desired.
Sporting News prediction: Volkov via KO (round one)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez; Welterweights
Kelvin Gastelum is the -250 favorite, while Daniel Rodriguez is the +200 underdog.
Gastelum won The Ultimate Fighter in 2013, and though he is 2-3 in his last five fights, the 32-year-old is still a danger to anyone sharing the octagon with him. He lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute and has a 41% strike accuracy mark. He averages 0.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has a takedown defense mark of 59%.
Rodriguez is 0-2 in his last two fights. The 37-year-old lands 7.30 significant strikes per minute, averages 0.62 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and has a takedown defense mark of 63%.
Gastelum can take advantage of the fact that "D-Rod" absorbs 5.28 significant strikes per minute. His grappling should shine in this fight, especially after Rodriguez got taken down five times against Neil Magny and three times against Kevin Lee. Gastelum will tire Rodriguez out, resulting in a win for the former interim middleweight title contender.
Sporting News prediction: Gastelum via unanimous decision
Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Joilton Lutterbach; Middleweights
Sharabutdin Magomedov is the -250 favorite, while Joilton Lutterbach is the +200 underdog.
Magomedov has ten wins via knockout and landed 113 significant strikes in his UFC debut in October against Bruno Silva. Lutterbach is 38-10 with 14 wins via knockout and 13 via submission. On a three-fight win streak in MMA, his last fight was in April 2023, as he has competed in kickboxing, karate, and boxing between fights.
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A heralded fighter from Russia, Magomedov has the speed to work past Lutterbach, who presents a challenge. Magomedov worked around takedowns from Silva and could do so against the 31-year-old Lutterbach. He may not knock the veteran out, but Magomedov can outwork Lutterbach for the win.
Sporting News prediction: Magomedov via unanimous decision
Johnny Walker vs. Volkan Oezdemir; Light Heavyweights
Volkan Oezdemir is the -115 favorite, while Johnny Walker is the -105 underdog.
Walker is 1-1 with one no-contest in his last three fights. He lands 3.81 significant strikes per minute and has a 53% strike accuracy mark. Oezdemir, 2-2 in his previous four fights, lands 4.49 significant strikes per minute and has a 47% strike accuracy mark.
The fight will likely not go to the ground, where Oezdemir has been dropped eight times in four fights. However, Walker can surprise and force Oezdemir down. On the feet, Oezdemir has an edge, especially on the inside. Walker is a capable striker with a new interest in patience. He attacks at any moment, from punches to jumping knees. If he can land quick, crisp shots, it should be a good night for the Brazilian.
Sporting News prediction: Walker via TKO (round one)
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